Dataset Information

Allergenic pollen production across a large city for common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia).

ABSTRACT: Predictions of airborne allergenic pollen concentrations at fine spatial scales require information on source plant location and pollen production. Such data are lacking at the urban scale, largely because manually mapping allergenic pollen producing plants across large areas is infeasible. However, modest-sized field surveys paired with allometric equations, remote sensing, and habitat distribution models can predict where these plants occur and how much pollen they produce. In this study, common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) was mapped in a field survey in Detroit, MI, USA. The relationship between ragweed presence and habitat-related variables derived from aerial imagery, LiDAR, and municipal data were used to create a habitat distribution model, which was then used to predict ragweed presence across the study area (392 km²). The relationship between inflorescence length and pollen production was used to predict pollen production in the city. Ragweed occurs in 1.7% of Detroit and total pollen production is 312 × 10¹² pollen grains annually, but ragweed presence was highly heterogeneous across the city. Ragweed was predominantly found in in vacant lots (75%) and near demolished structures (48%), and had varying associations with land cover types (e.g., sparse vegetation, trees, pavement) detected by remote sensing. These findings also suggest several management strategies that could help reduce levels of allergenic pollen, including appropriate post-demolition management practices. Spatially-resolved predictions for pollen production will allow mechanistic modeling of airborne allergenic pollen and improved exposure estimates for use in epidemiological and other applications.

SUBMITTER: Katz DSW

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7442281 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Climate change is affecting the growth, phenology, and distribution of species across northeastern United States. In response to these changes, some species have been adversely impacted while others have benefited. One species that has benefited from climate change, historically and in response to experimental treatments, is common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia), a widely distributed annual weed and a leading cause of hay fever in North America. To better understand how climate change may affect the distribution of common ragweed, we built a maximum entropy (Maxent) predictive model using climate and bioclimatic data and over 700 observations across the eastern U.S. Our model performed well with an AUC score of 0.765 using four uncorrelated variables, including precipitation seasonality, mean diurnal temperature range, August precipitation, and January maximum temperature. After building and testing our model, we then projected potential future common ragweed distribution using a suite of 13 global climate models (GCMs) under two future greenhouse gas scenarios for mid and late-century. In addition to providing georeferenced hot spots of potential future expansion, we also provide a metric of confidence by evaluating the number of GCMs that agree. We show a substantial contraction of common ragweed in central Florida, southern Appalachian Mountains, and northeastern Virginia and areas of potential expansion at the northern margins of its current distribution, notably in northeastern U.S. However, the vast majority of this increase is projected to occur by mid-century and may be moderated somewhat by the 2070s, implying that common ragweed may be sensitive to climatic variability. Although other factors and modeling approaches should be explored, we offer preliminary insight into where common ragweed might be a new concern in the future. Due to the health impacts of ragweed, local weed control boards may be well advised to monitor areas of expansion and potentially increase eradication efforts.

Project description:BackgroundAmbrosia artemisiifolia is a North American native that has become one of the most problematic invasive plants in Europe and Asia. We studied its worldwide population genetic structure, using both nuclear and chloroplast microsatellite markers and an unprecedented large population sampling. Our goals were (i) to identify the sources of the invasive populations; (ii) to assess whether all invasive populations were founded by multiple introductions, as previously found in France; (iii) to examine how the introductions have affected the amount and structure of genetic variation in Europe; (iv) to document how the colonization of Europe proceeded; (v) to check whether populations exhibit significant heterozygote deficiencies, as previously observed.Principal findingsWe found evidence for multiple introductions of A. artemisiifolia, within regions but also within populations in most parts of its invasive range, leading to high levels of diversity. In Europe, introductions probably stem from two different regions of the native area: populations established in Central Europe appear to have originated from eastern North America, and Eastern European populations from more western North America. This may result from differential commercial exchanges between these geographic regions. Our results indicate that the expansion in Europe mostly occurred through long-distance dispersal, explaining the absence of isolation by distance and the weak influence of geography on the genetic structure in this area in contrast to the native range. Last, we detected significant heterozygote deficiencies in most populations. This may be explained by partial selfing, biparental inbreeding and/or a Wahlund effect and further investigation is warranted.ConclusionsThis insight into the sources and pathways of common ragweed expansion may help to better understand its invasion success and provides baseline data for future studies on the evolutionary processes involved during range expansion in novel environments.

Dataset Information

Allergenic pollen production across a large city for common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia).

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