Dataset Information

Quantifying uncertainty in brain-predicted age using scalar-on-image quantile regression.

ABSTRACT: Prediction of subject age from brain anatomical MRI has the potential to provide a sensitive summary of brain changes, indicative of different neurodegenerative diseases. However, existing studies typically neglect the uncertainty of these predictions. In this work we take into account this uncertainty by applying methods of functional data analysis. We propose a penalised functional quantile regression model of age on brain structure with cognitively normal (CN) subjects in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI), and use it to predict brain age in Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) and Alzheimer's Disease (AD) subjects. Unlike the machine learning approaches available in the literature of brain age prediction, which provide only point predictions, the outcome of our model is a prediction interval for each subject.

SUBMITTER: Palma M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7443707 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Quantifying uncertainty in brain-predicted age using scalar-on-image quantile regression.

Palma Marco M Tavakoli Shahin S Brettschneider Julia J Nichols Thomas E TE

NeuroImage 20200602

Prediction of subject age from brain anatomical MRI has the potential to provide a sensitive summary of brain changes, indicative of different neurodegenerative diseases. However, existing studies typically neglect the uncertainty of these predictions. In this work we take into account this uncertainty by applying methods of functional data analysis. We propose a penalised functional quantile regression model of age on brain structure with cognitively normal (CN) subjects in the Alzheimer's Dise ...[more]

PMID: 32502669

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Project description:BackgroundIt has been a long-standing biological challenge to understand the molecular regulatory mechanisms behind mammalian ageing. Harnessing the availability of many ageing microarray datasets, a number of studies have shown that it is possible to identify genes that have age-dependent differential expression (DE) or differential variability (DV) patterns. The majority of the studies identify "interesting" genes using a linear regression approach, which is known to perform poorly in the presence of outliers or if the underlying age-dependent pattern is non-linear. Clearly a more robust and flexible approach is needed to identify genes with various age-dependent gene expression patterns.ResultsHere we present a novel model selection approach to discover genes with linear or non-linear age-dependent gene expression patterns from microarray data. To identify DE genes, our method fits three quantile regression models (constant, linear and piecewise linear models) to the expression profile of each gene, and selects the least complex model that best fits the available data. Similarly, DV genes are identified by fitting and comparing two quantile regression models (non-DV and the DV models) to the expression profile of each gene. We show that our approach is much more robust than the standard linear regression approach in discovering age-dependent patterns. We also applied our approach to analyze two human brain ageing datasets and found many biologically interesting gene expression patterns, including some very interesting DV patterns, that have been overlooked in the original studies. Furthermore, we propose that our model selection approach can be extended to discover DE and DV genes from microarray datasets with discrete class labels, by considering different quantile regression models.ConclusionIn this paper, we present a novel application of quantile regression models to identify genes that have interesting linear or non-linear age-dependent expression patterns. One important contribution of this paper is to introduce a model selection approach to DE and DV gene identification, which is most commonly tackled by null hypothesis testing approaches. We show that our approach is robust in analyzing real and simulated datasets. We believe that our approach is applicable in many ageing or time-series data analysis tasks.

Dataset Information

Quantifying uncertainty in brain-predicted age using scalar-on-image quantile regression.

Publications

Quantifying uncertainty in brain-predicted age using scalar-on-image quantile regression.

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