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Nomogram model for predicting cause-specific mortality in patients with stage I small-cell lung cancer: a competing risk analysis.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:The five-year cumulative incidence rate in patients diagnosed with stage I small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) who were instructed to undergo surgery was from 40 to 60%.The death competition influence the accuracy of the classical survival analyses. The aim of the study is to investigate the mortality of stage I small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) patients in the presence of competing risks according to a proportional hazards model, and to establish a competing risk nomogram to predict probabilities of both cause-specific death and death resulting from other causes. METHODS:The study subjects were patients diagnosed with stage I SCLC according to ICD-O-3. First, the cumulative incidence functions (CIFs) of cause-specific death, as well as of death resulting from other causes, were calculated. Then, a proportional hazards model for the sub-distribution of competing risks and a monogram were constructed to evaluate the probability of mortality in stage I SCLC patients. RESULTS:1811 patients were included in this study. The five-year probabilities of death due to specific causes and other causes were 61.5 and 13.6%, respectively. Tumor size, extent of tumor, surgery, and radiotherapy were identified as the predictors of death resulting from specific causes in stage I SCLC. The results showed that surgery could effectively reduce the cancer-specific death, and the one-year cumulative incidence dropped from 34.5 to 11.2%. Like surgery, chemotherapy and radiotherapy improved the one-year survival rate. CONCLUSIONS:We constructed a predictive model for stage I SCLC using the data from the SEER database. The proportional sub-distribution models of competing risks revealed the predictors of death resulting from both specific causes and other causes. The competing risk nomogram that we built to predict the prognosis showed good reliability and could provide beneficial and individualized predictive information for stage I SCLC patients.

SUBMITTER: Li J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7445928 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Nomogram model for predicting cause-specific mortality in patients with stage I small-cell lung cancer: a competing risk analysis.

Li Jianjie J Zheng Qiwen Q Zhao Xinghui X Zhao Jun J An Tongtong T Wu Meina M Wang Yuyan Y Zhuo Minglei M Zhong Jia J Yang Xue X Jia Bo B Chen Hanxiao H Dong Zhi Z Wang Jingjing J Chi Yujia Y Zhai Xiaoyu X Wang Ziping Z

BMC cancer 20200824 1

<h4>Background</h4>The five-year cumulative incidence rate in patients diagnosed with stage I small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) who were instructed to undergo surgery was from 40 to 60%.The death competition influence the accuracy of the classical survival analyses. The aim of the study is to investigate the mortality of stage I small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) patients in the presence of competing risks according to a proportional hazards model, and to establish a competing risk nomogram to predict pr ...[more]

PMID: 32838776

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Project description:Background: Heart rate variability (HRV), reflecting circadian rhythm of heart rate, is reported to be associated with clinical outcomes in stage 5 chronic kidney disease (CKD5) patients. Whether CKD related factors combined with HRV can improve the predictive ability for their death remains uncertain. Here we evaluated the prognosis value of nomogram model based on HRV and clinical risk factors for all-cause mortality in CKD5 patients. Methods: CKD5 patients were enrolled from multicenter between 2011 and 2019 in China. HRV parameters based on 24-h Holter and clinical risk factors associated with all-cause mortality were analyzed by multivariate Cox regression. The relationships between HRV and all-cause mortality were displayed by restricted cubic spline graphs. The predictive ability of nomogram model based on clinical risk factors and HRV were evaluated for survival rate. Results: CKD5 patients included survival subgroup (n = 155) and all-cause mortality subgroup (n = 45), with the median follow-up time of 48 months. Logarithm of standard deviation of all sinus R-R intervals (lnSDNN) (4.40 ± 0.39 vs. 4.32 ± 0.42; p = 0.007) and logarithm of standard deviation of average NN intervals for each 5 min (lnSDANN) (4.27 ± 0.41 vs. 4.17 ± 0.41; p = 0.008) were significantly higher in survival subgroup than all-cause mortality subgroup. On the basis of multivariate Cox regression analysis, the lnSDNN (HR = 0.35, 95%CI: 0.17-0.73, p = 0.01) and lnSDANN (HR = 0.36, 95% CI: 0.17-0.77, p = 0.01) were associated with all-cause mortality, their relationships were negative linear. Spearman's correlation analysis showed that lnSDNN and lnSDANN were highly correlated, so we chose lnSDNN, sex, age, BMI, diabetic mellitus (DM), β-receptor blocker, blood glucose, phosphorus and ln intact parathyroid hormone (iPTH) levels to build the nomogram model. The area under the curve (AUC) values based on lnSDNN nomogram model for predicting 3-year and 5-year survival rates were 79.44% and 81.27%, respectively. Conclusion: In CKD5 patients decreased SDNN and SDANN measured by HRV were related with their all-cause mortality, meanwhile, SDNN and SDANN were highly correlated. Nomogram model integrated SDNN and clinical risk factors are promising for evaluating their prognosis.

Project description:IntroductionParotid-gland carcinoma (PGC) is a relatively rare tumor that comprises a group of heterogeneous histologic subtypes. We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program database to apply a competing-risks analysis to PGC patients, and then established and validated predictive nomograms for PGC.MethodsSpecific screening criteria were applied to identify PGC patients and extract their clinical and other characteristics from the SEER database. We used the cumulative incidence function to estimate the cumulative incidence rates of PGC-specific death (GCD) and other cause-specific death (OCD), and tested for differences between groups using Gray's test. We then identified independent prognostic factors by applying the Fine-Gray proportional subdistribution hazard approach, and constructed predictive nomograms based on the results. Calibration curves and the concordance index (C-index) were employed to validate the nomograms.ResultsWe finally identified 4,075 eligible PGC patients who had been added to the SEER database from 2004 to 2015. Their 1-, 3-, and 5-year cumulative incidence rates of GCD were 10.1%, 21.6%, and 25.7%, respectively, while those of OCD were 2.9%, 6.6%, and 9.0%. Age, race, World Health Organization histologic risk classification, differentiation grade, American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) T stage, AJCC N stage, AJCC M stage, and RS (radiotherapy and surgery status) were independent predictors of GCD, while those of OCD were age, sex, marital status, AJCC T stage, AJCC M stage, and RS. These factors were integrated for constructing predictive nomograms. The results for calibration curves and the C-index suggested that the nomograms were well calibrated and had good discrimination ability.ConclusionWe have used the SEER database to establish-to the best of our knowledge-the first competing-risks nomograms for predicting the 1-, 3-, and 5-year cause-specific mortality in PGC. The nomograms showed relatively good performance and can be used in clinical practice to assist clinicians in individualized treatment decision-making.

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Nomogram model for predicting cause-specific mortality in patients with stage I small-cell lung cancer: a competing risk analysis.

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Nomogram model for predicting cause-specific mortality in patients with stage I small-cell lung cancer: a competing risk analysis.

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