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The development of an online risk calculator for the prediction of future syphilis among a high-risk cohort of men who have sex with men and transgender women in Lima, Peru.

ABSTRACT: Background Syphilis incidence worldwide has rebounded since 2000, particularly among men who have sex with men (MSM). A predictive model for syphilis infection may inform prevention counselling and use of chemoprophylaxis. METHODS:Data from a longitudinal cohort study of MSM and transgender women meeting high-risk criteria for syphilis who were followed quarterly for 2 years were analysed. Incidence was defined as a four-fold increase in rapid plasma reagin (RPR) titres or new RPR reactivity if two prior titres were non-reactive. Generalised estimating equations were used to calculate rate ratios (RR) and develop a predictive model for 70% of the dataset, which was then validated in the remaining 30%. An online risk calculator for the prediction of future syphilis was also developed. RESULTS:Among 361 participants, 22.0% were transgender women and 34.6% were HIV-infected at baseline. Syphilis incidence was 19.9 cases per 100-person years (95% confidence interval (CI) 16.3-24.3). HIV infection (RR 2.22; 95% CI 1.54-3.21) and history of syphilis infection (RR 2.23; 95% 1.62-3.64) were significantly associated with incident infection. The final predictive model for syphilis incidence in the next 3 months included HIV infection, history of syphilis, number of male sex partners and sex role for anal sex in the past 3 months, and had an area under the curve of 69%. The online syphilis risk calculator based on those results is available at: www.syphrisk.net. CONCLUSIONS:Using data from a longitudinal cohort study among a population at high risk for syphilis infection in Peru, we developed a predictive model and online risk calculator for future syphilis infection. The predictive model for future syphilis developed in this study has a moderate predictive accuracy and may serve as the foundation for future studies.

SUBMITTER: Allan-Blitz LT

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7446470 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The development of an online risk calculator for the prediction of future syphilis among a high-risk cohort of men who have sex with men and transgender women in Lima, Peru.

Allan-Blitz Lao-Tzu LT Konda Kelika A KA Vargas Silver K SK Wang Xiaoyan X Segura Eddy R ER Fazio Boris M BM Calvo Gino M GM Caceres Carlos F CF Klausner Jeffrey D JD

Sexual health 20180601 3

Background Syphilis incidence worldwide has rebounded since 2000, particularly among men who have sex with men (MSM). A predictive model for syphilis infection may inform prevention counselling and use of chemoprophylaxis.<h4>Methods</h4>Data from a longitudinal cohort study of MSM and transgender women meeting high-risk criteria for syphilis who were followed quarterly for 2 years were analysed. Incidence was defined as a four-fold increase in rapid plasma reagin (RPR) titres or new RPR reactiv ...[more]

PMID: 30021680

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Project description:BackgroundMen who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women in Peru are at high risk for acquiring syphilis and HIV infection. The World Health Organization highly recommends screening for HIV and syphilis to reduce morbidity and mortality associated with untreated infections. We aimed to identify factors associated with dual testing preferences for HIV and syphilis infection among MSM and transgender women in Lima, Peru.MethodsWe used conjoint analysis, an innovative method for systematically estimating consumer preferences. We created eight hypothetical test profiles varying across six dichotomous attributes: cost (free vs. $4), potential for false positive syphilis result (no false positive vs. some risk of false positive), time-to-result (20 minutes vs. 1 week), blood draw method (finger prick vs. venipuncture), test type (rapid vs. laboratory), and number of draws (1 vs. 2). We fit a conjoint analysis model for each participant using a simple main effects ANOVA. Attribute importance values were calculated using percentages from relative ranges in the attribute's utility values. Results were summarized across participants and averages were reported.ResultsWe recruited 415 MSM/transgender women over 18 years of age from two STD clinics in Lima, Peru. No potential for syphilis false positive result (no false positive vs. some potential for false positive) had the largest average impact on willingness to use the test and on average accounted for 23.8% of test type preference, followed by cost (free vs. ~USD$4; 21.6%), time to results (20 minutes vs. 1 week; 17.4%), number of blood draws (1 draw vs. 2 draws; 13.8%), method of blood draw (fingerprick vs. venipuncture; 13.7%), and test type (rapid POC vs. laboratory; 9.7%).ConclusionMSM/transgender women in Peru prioritized accuracy, cost, timeliness and number of blood draws for HIV and syphilis testing. Implementing a low cost, accurate, rapid and dual testing strategy for HIV and syphilis could improve screening uptake and accessibility of testing to accelerate time to treatment.

Project description:BackgroundPatient-initiated partner notification (PN) following the diagnosis of a sexually transmitted infection is a critical component of disease control in men who have sex with men (MSM) sexual networks. Both printed and internet-based technologies offer potential tools to enhance traditional partner notification approaches among MSM in resource-limited settings.ObjectiveThis randomized controlled trial aimed to evaluate the effect of 2 different PN technologies on notification outcomes following syphilis diagnosis among MSM in Peru: a Web-based notification system and patient-delivered partner referral cards.MethodsDuring 2012-2014, we screened 1625 MSM from Lima, Peru, for syphilis infection and enrolled 370 MSM with symptomatic primary or secondary syphilis (n=58) or asymptomatic latent syphilis diagnosed by serology (rapid plasma reagin, RPR, and Microhemagglutination assay for Treponema pallidum antibody; n=312). Prior to enrollment, potential participants used a computer-based self-interviewing system to enumerate their recent sexual partnerships and provide details of their 3 most recent partners. Eligible participants were randomly assigned to one of 4 intervention arms: (1) counseling and patient-initiated Web-based PN (n=95), (2) counseling with Web-based partner notification and partner referral cards (n=84), (3) counseling and partner referral cards (n=97), and (4) simple partner notification counseling (control; n=94). Self-reported partner notification was assessed after 14 days among 354 participants who returned for the follow-up assessment.ResultsThe median age of enrolled participants was 27 (interquartile range, IQR 23-34) years, with a median of 2 partners (IQR 1-5) reported in the past month. Compared with those who received only counseling (arm 4), MSM provided with access to Web-based partner notification (arms 1 and 2) or printed partner referral cards (arms 2 and 3) were more likely to have notified one or more of their sexual partners (odds ratio, OR, 2.18, 95% CI 1.30-3.66; P=.003 and OR 1.68, 95% CI 1.01-2.79; P=.045, respectively). The proportion of partners notified was also higher in both Web-based partner notification (241/421, 57.2%; P<.001) and referral card (240/467, 51.4%; P=.006) arms than in the control arm (82/232, 35.3%).ConclusionsBoth new Web-based technologies and traditional printed materials support patient-directed notification and improve self-reported outcomes among MSM with syphilis. Additional research is needed to refine the use of these partner notification tools in specific partnership contexts.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT01720641; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01720641 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/70A89rJL4).

Dataset Information

The development of an online risk calculator for the prediction of future syphilis among a high-risk cohort of men who have sex with men and transgender women in Lima, Peru.

Publications

The development of an online risk calculator for the prediction of future syphilis among a high-risk cohort of men who have sex with men and transgender women in Lima, Peru.

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