The development of an online risk calculator for the prediction of future syphilis among a high-risk cohort of men who have sex with men and transgender women in Lima, Peru.

ABSTRACT: Background Syphilis incidence worldwide has rebounded since 2000, particularly among men who have sex with men (MSM). A predictive model for syphilis infection may inform prevention counselling and use of chemoprophylaxis.

Methods

Data from a longitudinal cohort study of MSM and transgender women meeting high-risk criteria for syphilis who were followed quarterly for 2 years were analysed. Incidence was defined as a four-fold increase in rapid plasma reagin (RPR) titres or new RPR reactivity if two prior titres were non-reactive. Generalised estimating equations were used to calculate rate ratios (RR) and develop a predictive model for 70% of the dataset, which was then validated in the remaining 30%. An online risk calculator for the prediction of future syphilis was also developed

SUBMITTER: Allan-Blitz LT 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7446470 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature