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A vulnerability index for COVID-19: spatial analysis at the subnational level in Kenya.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic calls for precision public health reflecting our improved understanding of who is the most vulnerable and their geographical location. We created three vulnerability indices to identify areas and people who require greater support while elucidating health inequities to inform emergency response in Kenya. METHODS:Geospatial indicators were assembled to create three vulnerability indices; Social VulnerabilityIndex (SVI), Epidemiological Vulnerability Index (EVI) and a composite of the two, that is, Social Epidemiological Vulnerability Index (SEVI) resolved at 295 subcounties in Kenya. SVI included 19 indicators that affect the spread of disease; socioeconomic deprivation, access to services and population dynamics, whereas EVI comprised 5 indicators describing comorbidities associated with COVID-19 severe disease progression. The indicators were scaled to a common measurement scale, spatially overlaid via arithmetic mean and equally weighted. The indices were classified into seven classes, 1-2 denoted low vulnerability and 6-7, high vulnerability. The population within vulnerabilities classes was quantified. RESULTS:The spatial variation of each index was heterogeneous across Kenya. Forty-nine northwestern and partly eastern subcounties (6.9 million people) were highly vulnerable, whereas 58 subcounties (9.7 million people) in western and central Kenya were the least vulnerable for SVI. For EVI, 48 subcounties (7.2 million people) in central and the adjacent areas and 81 subcounties (13.2 million people) in northern Kenya were the most and least vulnerable, respectively. Overall (SEVI), 46 subcounties (7.0 million people) around central and southeastern were more vulnerable, whereas 81 subcounties (14.4 million people) were least vulnerable. CONCLUSION:The vulnerability indices created are tools relevant to the county, national government and stakeholders for prioritisation and improved planning. The heterogeneous nature of the vulnerability indices underpins the need for targeted and prioritised actions based on the needs across the subcounties.

SUBMITTER: Macharia PM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7447114 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A vulnerability index for COVID-19: spatial analysis at the subnational level in Kenya.

Macharia Peter M PM Joseph Noel K NK Okiro Emelda A EA

BMJ global health 20200801 8

<h4>Background</h4>Response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic calls for precision public health reflecting our improved understanding of who is the most vulnerable and their geographical location. We created three vulnerability indices to identify areas and people who require greater support while elucidating health inequities to inform emergency response in Kenya.<h4>Methods</h4>Geospatial indicators were assembled to create three vulnerability indices; Social VulnerabilityInd ...[more]

PMID: 32839197

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Project description:While the COVID-19 pandemic presents a global challenge, the U.S. response places substantial responsibility for both decision-making and communication on local health authorities, necessitating tools to support decision-making at the community level. We created a Pandemic Vulnerability Index (PVI) to support counties and municipalities by integrating baseline data on relevant community vulnerabilities with dynamic data on local infection rates and interventions. The PVI visually synthesizes county-level vulnerability indicators, enabling their comparison in regional, state, and nationwide contexts. We describe the data streams used and how these are combined to calculate the PVI, detail the supporting epidemiological modeling and machine-learning forecasts, and outline the deployment of an interactive web Dashboard. Finally, we describe the practical application of the PVI for real-world decision-making. Considering an outlook horizon from 1 to 28 days, the overall PVI scores are significantly associated with key vulnerability-related outcome metrics of cumulative deaths, population adjusted cumulative deaths, and the proportion of deaths from cases. The modeling results indicate the most significant predictors of case counts are population size, proportion of black residents, and mean PM2.5. The machine learning forecast results were strongly predictive of observed cases and deaths up to 14 days ahead. The modeling reinforces an integrated concept of vulnerability that accounts for both dynamic and static data streams and highlights the drivers of inequities in COVID-19 cases and deaths. These results also indicate that local areas with a highly ranked PVI should take near-term action to mitigate vulnerability. The COVID-19 PVI Dashboard monitors multiple data streams to communicate county-level trends and vulnerabilities and facilitates decision-making and communication among government officials, scientists, community leaders, and the public to enable effective and coordinated action to combat the pandemic.

Project description:BackgroundPopulation characteristics can be used to infer vulnerability of communities to COVID-19, or to the likelihood of high levels of vaccine hesitancy. Communities harder hit by the virus, or at risk of being so, stand to benefit from greater resource allocation than their population size alone would suggest. This study reports a simple but efficacious method of ranking small areas of England by relative characteristics that are linked with COVID-19 vulnerability and vaccine hesitancy.MethodsPublicly available data on a range of characteristics previously linked with either poor COVID-19 outcomes or vaccine hesitancy were collated for all Middle Super Output Areas of England (MSOA, n=6790, excluding Isles of Scilly), scaled and combined into two numeric indices. Multivariable linear regression was used to build a parsimonious model of vulnerability (static socio-ecological vulnerability index, SEVI) in 60% of MSOAs, and retained variables were used to construct two simple indices. Assuming a monotonic relationship between indices and outcomes, Spearman correlation coefficients were calculated between the SEVI and cumulative COVID-19 case rates at MSOA level in the remaining 40% of MSOAs over periods both during and out with national lockdowns. Similarly, a novel vaccine hesitancy index (VHI) was constructed using population characteristics aligned with factors identified by an Office for National Statistics (ONS) survey analysis. The relationship between the VHI and vaccine coverage in people aged 12+years (as of 2021-06-24) was determined using Spearman correlation. The indices were split into quintiles, and MSOAs within the highest vulnerability and vaccine hesitancy quintiles were mapped.FindingsThe SEVI showed a moderate to strong relationship with case rates in the validation dataset across the whole study period, and for every intervening period studied except early in the pandemic when testing was highly selective. The SEVI was more strongly correlated with case rates than any of its domains (rs 0·59 95% CI 0.57-0.62) and outperformed an existing MSOA-level vulnerability index. The VHI was significantly negatively correlated with COVID-19 vaccine coverage in the validation data at the time of writing (rs -0·43 95% CI -0·46 to -0·41). London had the largest number and proportion of MSOAs in quintile 5 (most vulnerable/hesitant) of SEVI and VHI concurrently.InterpretationThe indices presented offer an efficacious way of identifying geographical disparities in COVID-19 risk, thus helping focus resources according to need.FundingFunder: Integrated Covid Hub North East.Award numbern/a.Grant recipientFiona Matthews.

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Project description:BackgroundAnalysis of disaggregated national data suggest uneven access to essential maternal healthcare services within countries. This is of concern as it hinders equitable progress in health outcomes. Mounting an effective response requires identification of subnational areas that may be lagging behind. This paper aims to explore spatial variation in maternal healthcare service use at health centre catchment, village and household levels. Spatial correlations of service use with household wealth and women's education levels were also assessed.MethodsUsing survey data from 3758 households enrolled in a cluster randomized trial geographical variation in the use of maternity waiting homes (MWH), antenatal care (ANC), delivery care and postnatal care (PNC) was investigated in three districts in Jimma Zone. Correlations of service use with education and wealth levels were also explored among 24 health centre catchment areas using choropleth maps. Global spatial autocorrelation was assessed using Moran's I. Cluster analyses were performed at village and household levels using Getis Ord Gi* and Kulldorf spatial scan statistics to identify cluster locations.ResultsSignificant global spatial autocorrelation was present in ANC use (Moran's I = 0.15, p value = 0.025), delivery care (Moran's I = 0.17, p value = 0.01) and PNC use (Moran's I = 0.31, p value < 0.01), but not MWH use (Moran's I = -0.005, p value = 0.94) suggesting clustering of villages with similarly high (hot spots) and/or low (cold spots) service use. Hot spots were detected in health centre catchments in Gomma district while Kersa district had cold spots. High poverty or low education catchments generally had low levels of service use, but there were exceptions. At village level, hot and cold spots were detected for ANC, delivery care and PNC use. Household-level analyses revealed a primary cluster of elevated MWH-use not detected previously. Further investigation of spatial heterogeneity is warranted.ConclusionsSub-national variation in maternal healthcare services exists in Jimma Zone. There was relatively higher poverty and lower education in areas where service use cold spots were identified. Re-directing resources to vulnerable sub-groups and locations lagging behind will be necessary to ensure equitable progress in maternal health.

Dataset Information

A vulnerability index for COVID-19: spatial analysis at the subnational level in Kenya.

Publications

A vulnerability index for COVID-19: spatial analysis at the subnational level in Kenya.

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