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Viral disease spreading in grouped population

ABSTRACT: Highlights • Epidemic curves created by using an agent-based model are presented.• The network of interactions, and thus the possibility of infection, is modeled with the scale-free Barabasi-Albert model. Modifications based on whether these interactions belong to a particular group are proposed.• A simple model of passing an infection via a direct interaction is proposed.• The influence of the network creation method, division into different numbers of groups and different times of intervention is presented.• The results are shown for two cases: the well-known influenza virus and the recently reported COVID-19. Background and Objective The currently active COVID-19 pandemic has increased, among others, public interest in the computational techniques enabling the study of disease-spreading processes. Thus far, numerous approaches have been used to study the development of epidemics, with special attention paid to the identification of crucial elements that can strengthen or weaken the dynamics of the process. The main thread of this research is associated with the use of the ordinary differential equations method. There also exist several approaches based on the analysis of flows in the Cellular Automata (CA) approach. Methods In this paper, we propose a new approach to disease-spread modeling. We start by creating a network that reproduces contacts between individuals in a community. This assumption makes the presented model significantly different from the ones currently dominant in the field. It also changes the approach to the act of infection. Usually, some parameters that describe the rate of new infections by taking into account those infected in the previous time slot are considered. With our model, we can individualize this process, considering each contact individually. Results The typical output from calculations of a similar type are epidemic curves. In our model, except of presenting the average curves, we show the deviations or ranges for particular results obtained in different simulation runs, which usually lead to significantly different results. This observation is the effect of the probabilistic character of the infection process, which can impact, in different runs, individuals with different significance to the community. We can also easily present the effects of different types of intervention. The effects are studied for different methods used to create the graph representing a community, which can correspond to different social bonds. Conclusions We see the potential usefulness of the proposition in the detailed study of epidemic development for specific environments and communities. The ease of entering new parameters enables the analysis of several specific scenarios for different contagious diseases.

SUBMITTER: Gwizda??a T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7449887 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:IntroductionSurveys are common research tools, and questionnaires revisions are a common occurrence in longitudinal studies. Revisions can, at times, introduce systematic shifts in measures of interest. We formulate that questionnaire revision are a stochastic process with transition matrices. Thus, revision shifts can be reduced by first estimating these transition matrices, which can be utilized in estimation of interested measures.Materials and methodAn ideal survey response model is defined by mapping between the true value of a participant's response to an interval in the grouped data type scale. A population completed surveys multiple times, as modeled with multiple stochastic process. This included stochastic processes related to true values and intervals. While multiple factors contribute to changes in survey responses, here, we explored the method that can mitigate the effects of questionnaire revision. We proposed the Version Alignment Method (VAM), a data preprocessing tool, which can separate the transitions according to revisions from all transitions via solving an optimization problem and using the revision-related transitions to remove the revision effect. To verify VAM, we used simulation data to study the estimation error and a real life MJ dataset containing large amounts of long-term questionnaire responses with several questionnaire revisions to study its feasibility.ResultWe compared the difference of the annual average between consecutive years. Without adjustment, the difference is 0.593 when the revision occurred, while VAM brought it down to 0.115, where difference between years without revision was in the 0.005, 0.125 range. Furthermore, our method rendered the responses to the same set of intervals, thus comparing the relative frequency of items before and after revisions became possible. The average estimation error in L infinity was 0.0044 which occupied the 95% CI which was constructed by bootstrap analysis.ConclusionQuestionnaire revisions can induce different response bias and information loss, thus causing inconsistencies in the estimated measures. Conventional methods can only partly remedy this issue. Our proposal, VAM, can estimate the aggregate difference of all revision-related systematic errors and can reduce the differences, thus reducing inconsistencies in the final estimations of longitudinal studies.

Project description:BackgroundInformation and emotions towards public health issues could spread widely through online social networks. Although aggregate metrics on the volume of information diffusion are available, we know little about how information spreads on online social networks. Health information could be transmitted from one to many (i.e. broadcasting) or from a chain of individual to individual (i.e. viral spreading). The aim of this study is to examine the spreading pattern of Ebola information on Twitter and identify influential users regarding Ebola messages.MethodsOur data was purchased from GNIP. We obtained all Ebola-related tweets posted globally from March 23, 2014 to May 31, 2015. We reconstructed Ebola-related retweeting paths based on Twitter content and the follower-followee relationships. Social network analysis was performed to investigate retweeting patterns. In addition to describing the diffusion structures, we classify users in the network into four categories (i.e., influential user, hidden influential user, disseminator, common user) based on following and retweeting patterns.ResultsOn average, 91% of the retweets were directly retweeted from the initial message. Moreover, 47.5% of the retweeting paths of the original tweets had a depth of 1 (i.e., from the seed user to its immediate followers). These observations suggested that the broadcasting was more pervasive than viral spreading. We found that influential users and hidden influential users triggered more retweets than disseminators and common users. Disseminators and common users relied more on the viral model for spreading information beyond their immediate followers via influential and hidden influential users.ConclusionsBroadcasting was the dominant mechanism of information diffusion of a major health event on Twitter. It suggests that public health communicators can work beneficially with influential and hidden influential users to get the message across, because influential and hidden influential users can reach more people that are not following the public health Twitter accounts. Although both influential users and hidden influential users can trigger many retweets, recognizing and using the hidden influential users as the source of information could potentially be a cost-effective communication strategy for public health promotion. However, challenges remain due to uncertain credibility of these hidden influential users.

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Viral disease spreading in grouped population

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