The geography of COVID-19 spread in Italy and implications for the relaxation of confinement measures.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Bertuzzo E
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7449964 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
The geography of COVID-19 spread in Italy and implications for the relaxation of confinement measures.
Bertuzzo Enrico E Mari Lorenzo L Pasetto Damiano D Miccoli Stefano S Casagrandi Renato R Gatto Marino M Rinaldo Andrea A
Nature communications 20200826 1
The pressing need to restart socioeconomic activities locked-down to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Italy must be coupled with effective methodologies to selectively relax containment measures. Here we employ a spatially explicit model, properly attentive to the role of inapparent infections, capable of: estimating the expected unfolding of the outbreak under continuous lockdown (baseline trajectory); assessing deviations from the baseline, should lockdown relaxations result in increased di ...[more]
Similar Datasets
Project description:The COVID-19 pandemic has overwhelmed the life and security of most of the world countries, and especially of the Western countries, without similar experiences in the recent past. In a first phase, the response of health systems and governments was disorganized, but then incisive, also driven by the fear of a new and dramatic phenomenon. In the second phase, several governments, including Italy, accepted the doctrine of "coexistence with the virus" by putting into practice a series of containment measures aimed at limiting the dramatic sanitary consequences while not jeopardizing the economic and social stability of the country. Here, we present a new mathematical approach to modeling the COVID-19 dynamics that accounts for typical evolution parameters (i.e., virus variants, vaccinations, containment measurements). Reproducing the COVID-19 epidemic spread is an extremely challenging task due to the low reliability of the available data, the lack of recurrent patterns, and the considerable amount and variability of the involved parameters. However, the adoption of fairly uniform criteria among the Italian regions enabled to test and optimize the model in various conditions leading to robust and interesting results. Although the regional variability is quite large and difficult to predict, we have retrospectively obtained reliable indications on which measures were the most appropriate to limit the transmissibility coefficients within detectable ranges for all the regions. To complicate matters further, the rapid spread of the English variant has upset contexts where the propagation of contagion was close to equilibrium conditions, decreeing success or failure of a certain measure. Finally, we assessed the effectiveness of the zone assignment criteria, highlighting how the reactivity of the measures plays a fundamental role in limiting the spread of the infection and thus the total number of deaths, the most important factor in assessing the success of epidemic management.
| S-EPMC8560766 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Italy prompted drastic measures for transmission containment. We examine the effects of these interventions, based on modeling of the unfolding epidemic. We test modeling options of the spatially explicit type, suggested by the wave of infections spreading from the initial foci to the rest of Italy. We estimate parameters of a metacommunity Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR)-like transmission model that includes a network of 107 provinces connected by mobility at high resolution, and the critical contribution of presymptomatic and asymptomatic transmission. We estimate a generalized reproduction number ([Formula: see text] = 3.60 [3.49 to 3.84]), the spectral radius of a suitable next-generation matrix that measures the potential spread in the absence of containment interventions. The model includes the implementation of progressive restrictions after the first case confirmed in Italy (February 21, 2020) and runs until March 25, 2020. We account for uncertainty in epidemiological reporting, and time dependence of human mobility matrices and awareness-dependent exposure probabilities. We draw scenarios of different containment measures and their impact. Results suggest that the sequence of restrictions posed to mobility and human-to-human interactions have reduced transmission by 45% (42 to 49%). Averted hospitalizations are measured by running scenarios obtained by selectively relaxing the imposed restrictions and total about 200,000 individuals (as of March 25, 2020). Although a number of assumptions need to be reexamined, like age structure in social mixing patterns and in the distribution of mobility, hospitalization, and fatality, we conclude that verifiable evidence exists to support the planning of emergency measures.
| S-EPMC7229754 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background: During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic (April to May 2020), 6,169 Polish and 939 Italian residents were surveyed with an online questionnaire investigating socio-demographic information and personality traits (first section) as well as attitudes, position, and efficacy perceptions on the impact of lockdown (second section) and various health protection measures enforced (third section). Methods: The "health protection attitude score" (HPAS), an endpoint obtained by pooling up the answers to questions of the third section of the survey tool, was investigated by multiple linear regression models, reporting regression coefficients (RC) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Results: Concerns for business and health due to COVID-19 were associated with a positive attitude toward risk reduction rules. By contrast, male sex, concerns about the reliability of information available online on COVID-19 and its prevention, along with the feeling of not being enough informed on the transmissibility/prevention of SARS-CoV-2 were associated with a negative attitude toward risk mitigation measures. Discussion: A recent literature review identified two social patterns with different features in relation to their attitude toward health protection rules against the spread of COVID-19. Factors positively associated with adherence to public health guidelines were perceived threat of COVID-19, trust in government, female sex, and increasing age. Factors associated with decreased compliance were instead underestimation of the COVID-19 risk, limited knowledge of the pandemic, belief in conspiracy theories, and political conservativism. Very few studies have tested interventions to change attitudes or behaviors. Conclusion: To improve attitude and compliance toward risk reduction norms, a key intervention is fostering education and knowledge on COVID-19 health risk and prevention among the general population. However, information on COVID-19 epidemiology might be user-generated and contaminated by social media, which contributed to creating an infodemic around the disease. To prevent the negative impact of social media and to increase adherence to health protection, stronger content control by providers of social platforms is recommended.
| S-EPMC8754188 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Although the Covid-19 pandemic is still ongoing, the environmental factors beyond virus transmission are only partially known. This statistical study has the aim to identify the key factors that have affected the virus spread during the early phase of pandemic in Italy, among a wide set of potential determinants concerning demographics, environmental pollution and climate. Because of its heterogeneity in pollution levels and climate conditions, Italy provides an ideal scenario for an ecological study. Moreover, the selected period excludes important confounding factors, as different virus variants, restriction policies or vaccines. The short-term relationship between the infection maximum increase and demographic, pollution and meteo-climatic parameters was investigated, including both winter-spring and summer 2020 data, also focusing separately on the two seasonal periods and on North vs Centre-South. Among main results, the importance of population size confirmed social distancing as a key management option. The pollution hazardous role undoubtedly emerged, as NO2 affected infection increase in all the studied scenarios, PM2.5 manifested its impact in North of Italy, while O3 always showed a protective action. Whereas higher temperatures were beneficial, especially in the cold season with also wind and relative humidity, solar irradiance was always relevant, revealing several significant interactions with other co-factors. Presented findings address the importance of the environment in Sars-CoV-2 spread and indicated that special carefulness should be taken in crowded areas, especially if they are highly polluted and weakly exposed to sun. The results suggest that containment of future epidemics similar to Covid-19 could be supported by reducing environmental pollution, achieving safer social habits and promoting preventive health care for better immune system response, as an only comprehensive strategy.
| S-EPMC10079324 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was first detected in China at the end of 2019 and it has since spread in few months all over the World. Italy was one of the first Western countries who faced the health emergency and is one of the countries most severely affected by the pandemic. The diffusion of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Italy has followed a peculiar spatial pattern, however the attention of the scientific community has so far focussed almost exclusively on the prediction of the evolution of the disease over time.MethodsOfficial freely available data about the number of infected at the finest possible level of spatial areal aggregation (Italian provinces) are used to model the spatio-temporal distribution of COVID-19 infections at local level. An endemic-epidemic time-series mixed-effects generalized linear model for areal disease counts has been implemented to understand and predict spatio-temporal diffusion of the phenomenon.ResultsThree subcomponents characterize the fitted model. The first describes the transmission of the illness within provinces; the second accounts for the transmission between nearby provinces; the third is related to the evolution of the disease over time. At the local level, the provinces first concerned by containment measures are those that are not affected by the effects of spatial neighbours. On the other hand, the component accounting for the spatial interaction with surrounding areas is prevalent for provinces that are strongly involved by contagions. Moreover, the proposed model provides good forecasts for the number of infections at local level while controlling for delayed reporting.ConclusionsA strong evidence is found that strict control measures implemented in some provinces efficiently break contagions and limit the spread to nearby areas. While containment policies may potentially be more effective if planned considering the peculiarities of local territories, the effective and homogeneous enforcement of control measures at national level is needed to prevent the disease control being delayed or missed as a whole. This may also apply at international level where, as it is for the European Union or the United States, the internal border checks among states have largely been abolished.
| S-EPMC7509829 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC9114753 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Confinement due to the COVID-19 pandemic can influence dietary profiles, especially those of adolescents, who are highly susceptible to acquiring bad eating habits. Adolescents' poor dietary habits increase their subsequent risk of degenerative diseases such as obesity, diabetes, cardiovascular pathologies, etc. Our aim was to study nutritional modifications during COVID-19 confinement in adolescents aged 10 to 19 years, compare them with their usual diet and dietary guidelines, and identify variables that may have influenced changes. Data were collected by an anonymous online questionnaire on food intake among 820 adolescents from Spain, Italy, Brazil, Colombia, and Chile. The results show that COVID-19 confinement did influence their dietary habits. In particular, we recorded modified consumption of fried food, sweet food, legumes, vegetables, and fruits. Moreover, gender, family members at home, watching TV during mealtime, country of residence, and maternal education were diversely correlated with adequate nutrition during COVID-19 confinement. Understanding the adolescents' nutrition behavior during COVID-19 lockdown will help public health authorities reshape future policies on their nutritional recommendations, in preparation for future pandemics.
| S-EPMC7353171 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is causing devastating demographic, social, and economic damage globally. Understanding current patterns of the pandemic spread and forecasting its long-term trajectory is essential in guiding policies aimed at curtailing the pandemic. This is particularly important in regions with weak economies and fragile health care systems such as West Africa. We formulate and use a deterministic compartmental model to (i) assess the current patterns of COVID-19 spread in West Africa, (ii) evaluate the impact of currently implemented control measures, and (iii) predict the future course of the pandemic with and without currently implemented and additional control measures in West Africa. An analytical expression for the threshold level of control measures (involving a reduction in the effective contact rate) required to curtail the pandemic is computed. Considering currently applied health control measures, numerical simulations of the model using baseline parameter values estimated from West African COVID-19 data project a 67% reduction in the daily number of cases when the epidemic attains its peak. More reduction in the number of cases will be achieved if additional public health control measures that result in a reduction in the effective contact rate are implemented. We found out that disease elimination is difficult when more asymptomatic individuals contribute in transmission or are not identified and isolated in a timely manner. However, maintaining a baseline level of asymptomatic isolation and a low transmission rate will lead to a significant reduction in the number of daily cases when the pandemic peaks. For example, at the baseline level of asymptomatic isolation, at least a 46% reduction in the transmission rate is required for disease elimination. Additionally, disease elimination is possible if asymptomatic individuals are identified and isolated within 5 days (after the incubation period). Combining two or more measures is better for disease control, e.g., if asymptomatic cases are contact traced or identified and isolated in less than 8 days, only about 29% reduction in the disease transmission rate is required for disease elimination. Furthermore, we showed that the currently implemented measures triggered a 33% reduction in the time-dependent effective reproduction number between February 28 and June 26, 2020. We conclude that curtailing the COVID-19 pandemic burden significantly in West Africa requires more control measures than those that have already been implemented, as well as more mass testing and contact tracing in order to identify and isolate asymptomatic individuals early.
| S-EPMC7388784 | biostudies-literature
Project description:COVID-19 infection has caused increased morbidity and mortality worldwide. Several strategies have been adopted around the world to prevent its spread. Italy underwent a long lockdown for face-to-face educational activities, which were replaced with online classes. This longitudinal study aimed to analyze the effects of COVID-19 prevention measures on physical growth and body image perception in a sample of Italian adolescents who experienced the pandemic-induced lockdown in 2020. In particular, we wished to ascertain how lifestyle changes had affected their growth rates and health. Special attention was paid to increases in adiposity indicators (BMI, waist circumference, waist-to-height ratio) and weight caused by reduced physical activity, and consequent possible dissatisfaction with body image. We assessed the impact of school closures by comparing the annual growth rate and body image perception changes of adolescents (n = 60; age = 11.3 ± 0.4 years) who experienced this isolation with those in the following years who did not experience these restrictions (n = 68; age = 11.4 ± 0.3 years). As a consequence of the lockdown, our results indicate a greater annual growth rate in weight and other indices of adiposity (p < 0.05). As the virus is continuing to evolve and propagate, larger population studies can verify and confirm our findings. In promoting health policy to prevent the ongoing prevalence of obesity in adolescents, an accurate assessment of whether the increase in obesity rates during the pandemic is to be considered a temporary trend is highly recommended.
| S-EPMC10379597 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In this paper I examine the sensitivity of total UK Covid-19 deaths and the demand for intensive care and ward beds, to the timing and duration of suppression periods during a 500- day period. This is achieved via a SEIR model. Using an expected latent period of 4.5 days and infectious period of 3.8 days, R0 was first estimated as 3.18 using observed death rates under unmitigated spread and then under the effects of the total lockdown ( R0 =0.60) beginning 23 March. The case fatality rate given infection is taken as 1%. Parameter values for mean length of stay and conditional probability of death for ICU and non-ICU hospital admissions are guided by Ferguson et al. (2020). Under unmitigated spread the model predicts around 600,000 deaths in the UK. Starting with one exposed person at time zero and a suppression consistent with an R0 of 0.60 on day 72, the model predicts around 39,000 deaths for a first wave, but this reduces to around 11,000 if the intervention takes place one week earlier. If the initial suppression were in place until day 200 and then relaxed to an R0 of 1.5 between days 200 and 300, to be followed by a return to an R0 of 0.60, the model predicts around 43,000 deaths. This would increase to around 64,000 if the release from the first suppression takes place 20 days earlier. The results indicate the extreme sensitivity to timing and the consequences of even small delays to suppression and premature relaxation of such measures.
| S-EPMC7373688 | biostudies-literature