COVID-19 in South Korea: epidemiological and spatiotemporal patterns of the spread and the role of aggressive diagnostic tests in the early phase.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:South Korea experienced the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in the early period; thus data from this country could provide significant implications for global mitigation strategies. This study reports how COVID-19 has spread in South Korea and examines the effects of rapid widespread diagnostic testing on the spread of the disease in the early epidemic phase. METHODS:We collected daily data on the number of confirmed cases, tests and deaths due to COVID-19 from 20 January to 13 April 2020. We estimated the spread pattern with a logistic growth model, calculated the daily reproduction number (Rt) and examined the fatality pattern of COVID-19. RESULTS:From the start date of the epidemic in Korea (18 February 2020), the time to peak and plateau were 15.2 and 25?days, respectively. The initial Rt was 3.9 [95% credible interval (CI) 3.7 to 4.2] and declined to <1 after 2 weeks. The initial epidemic doubling time was 3.8?days (3.4 to 4.2?days). The aggressive testing in the early days of the epidemic was associated with reduction in transmission speed of COVID-19. In addition, as of 13 April, the case fatality rate of COVID-19 in Korea was 2.1%, suggesting a positive effect of the targeted treatment policy for severe patients and medical resources. CONCLUSIONS:Our findings provide important information for establishing and revising action plans based on testing strategies and severe patient care systems, needed to address the unprecedented pandemic.

SUBMITTER: Lee W 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7454567 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature