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Factors associated with viral load kinetics of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus during the 2015 outbreak in South Korea.

ABSTRACT: We conducted a retrospective study of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) viral load kinetics using data from patients hospitalised with MERS-CoV infection between 19 May and 20 August, 2015. Viral load trajectories were considered over the hospitalisation period using 1,714 viral load results measured in serial respiratory specimens of 185 patients. The viral load levels were significantly higher among non-survivors than among survivors (p=0.003). Healthcare workers (p = 0.001) and non-spreaders (p <0.001) had significantly lower viral loads. Viral RNA was present on the day of symptom onset and peaked 4-10 days after symptom onset.

SUBMITTER: Yang JS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7454697 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Factors Associated With Viral Load Kinetics of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus During the 2015 Outbreak in South Korea.

Yang Jeong-Sun JS Yoo Min-Gyu MG Lee Hye-Ja HJ Jang Han Byul HB Jung Hee-Dong HD Nam Jeong-Gu JG Lee Joo-Yeon JY Jee Youngmee Y Kim Sung Soon SS

The Journal of infectious diseases 20210301 6

We conducted a retrospective study of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) viral load kinetics using data from patients hospitalized with MERS-CoV infection between 19 May and 20 August 2015. Viral load trajectories were considered over the hospitalization period using 1714 viral load results measured in serial respiratory specimens of 185 patients. The viral load levels were significantly higher among nonsurvivors than among survivors (P = .003). Healthcare workers (P = .001) ...[more]

PMID: 32761054

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Project description:Background. Since the emergence of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in 2012, more than 1,300 laboratory confirmed cases of MERS-CoV infections have been reported in Asia, North Africa, and Europe by July 2015. The recent MERS-CoV nosocomial outbreak in South Korea quickly became the second largest such outbreak with 186 total cases and 36 deaths in a little more than one month, second only to Saudi Arabia in country-specific number of reported cases. Methods. We use a simple mathematical model, the Richards model, to trace the temporal course of the South Korea MERS-CoV outbreak. We pinpoint its outbreak turning point and its transmissibility via basic reproduction number R 0 in order to ascertain the occurrence of this nosocomial outbreak and how it was quickly brought under control. Results. The estimated outbreak turning point of ti = 23.3 days (95% CI [22.6-24.0]), or 23-24 days after the onset date of the index case on May 11, pinpoints June 3-4 as the time of the turning point or the peak incidence for this outbreak by onset date. R 0 is estimated to range between 7.0 and 19.3. Discussion and Conclusion. The turning point of the South Korea MERS-CoV outbreak occurred around May 27-29, when control measures were quickly implemented after laboratory confirmation of the first cluster of nosocomial infections by the index patient. Furthermore, transmissibility of MERS-CoV in the South Korea outbreak was significantly higher than those reported from past MERS-CoV outbreaks in the Middle East, which is attributable to the nosocomial nature of this outbreak. Our estimate of R 0 for the South Korea MERS-CoV nosocomial outbreak further highlights the importance and the risk involved in cluster infections and superspreading events in crowded settings such as hospitals. Similar to the 2003 SARS epidemic, outbreaks of infectious diseases with low community transmissibility like MERS-CoV could still occur initially with large clusters of nosocomial infections, but can be quickly and effectively controlled with timely intervention measures.

Project description:BackgroundEpidemiologic parameters are important in planning infection control policies during the outbreak of emerging infections. Korea experienced an outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection in 2015, which was characterized by superspreading events in healthcare settings. We aimed to estimate the epidemiologic parameters over time during the outbreak to assess the effectiveness of countermeasures.Materials and methodsPublicly available data pertaining to the MERS outbreak in Korea were collected. We estimated the incubation periods of 162 cases whose sources of exposure were identified and the temporal trend was evaluated. Factors influencing incubation duration were analyzed. The generational reproduction number (Rg ) and case reproduction number (R(c) ) were estimated over time.ResultsThe estimated median incubation period was 7.4 days (95% CI, 6.9-8.0). Median incubation periods tended to be longer over time as the disease generation progressed: 6.16 days (95% CI, 5.38-6.97), 7.68 days (95% CI, 7.04-8.44), and 7.95 days (95% CI, 6.25-9.88) in the first, second, and third generations, respectively. The number of days of illness in the source cases at the time of exposure inversely correlated with the incubation periods in the receiving cases (HR 0.91 [95% CI, 0.84-0.99] per one illness day increase; P=0.026). This relationship was consistent (HR 0.83 [95% CI, 0.74-0.93] per one illness day increase) in the multivariable analysis incorporating clinical characteristics, the order of generation, and a link to superspreaders. Because the third generation cases were exposed to their source cases in the early stage (median one day) compared to the second generation cases (median 6 days), the temporal trend of incubation periods appears to be influenced by early isolation of symptomatic cases and reduction of potential exposure to source cases in the later stage. Rg declined rapidly from 28 to 0.23 in two generations. R(c) dropped below the epidemic threshold at one on May 31, 2015, which approximately coincided with the initiation of the stringent countermeasures.ConclusionsDespite the initial delay, the stringent countermeasures targeted towards second generation cases appeared to effectively contain the MERS outbreak in Korea as suggested by the decline of R(c) shortly after implementation. Except for superspreading events, the transmission potential for MERS-CoV seems to be low. Further research should be focused on characterizing superspreaders in comparison to non-transmitting cases with regard to environmental, behavioral, and virologic and host genetic factors in order to better prepare for future outbreaks of MERS-CoV.

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Factors associated with viral load kinetics of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus during the 2015 outbreak in South Korea.

Publications

Factors Associated With Viral Load Kinetics of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus During the 2015 Outbreak in South Korea.

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