Dataset Information

Prevalence and outcomes of re-positive nucleic acid tests in discharged COVID-19 patients.

ABSTRACT: The prevalence and outcomes of patients who had re-activation of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) after discharge remain poorly understood. We included 126 consecutively confirmed cases of COVID-19 with 2-month follow-up data after discharge in this retrospective study. The upper respiratory specimen using a reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction test of three patients (71 years [60-76]) were positive within 11-20 days after their discharge, with an event rate of 19.8 (95%CI 2.60-42.1) per 1,000,000 patient-days. Moreover, all re-positive patients were asymptomatic. Our findings suggest that few recovered patients may still be virus carriers even after reaching the discharge criteria.

SUBMITTER: Du HW

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7456660 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Prevalence and outcomes of re-positive nucleic acid tests in discharged COVID-19 patients.

Du Hou-Wei HW Chen Jun-Nian JN Pan Xiao-Bin XB Chen Xiao-Ling XL Yixian-Zhang Fang Shuang-Fang SF Li Xiao-Qing XQ Xia Pin-Cang PC Gao Lei L Lin Hai-Long HL Chen Li-Min LM Liu Nan N

European journal of clinical microbiology & infectious diseases : official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology 20200831 2

The prevalence and outcomes of patients who had re-activation of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) after discharge remain poorly understood. We included 126 consecutively confirmed cases of COVID-19 with 2-month follow-up data after discharge in this retrospective study. The upper respiratory specimen using a reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction test of three patients (71 years [60-76]) were positive within 11-20 days after their discharge, with an event rate of 19.8 (95%CI 2.60-42. ...[more]

PMID: 32865669

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Project description:BackgroundThe emergency of new COVID-19 variants over the past three years posed a serious challenge to the public health. Cities in China implemented mass daily RT-PCR tests by pooling strategies. However, a random delay exists between an infection and its first positive RT-PCR test. It is valuable for disease control to know the delay pattern and daily infection incidences reconstructed from RT-PCR test observations.MethodsWe formulated the convolution model between daily incidences and positive RT-PCR test counts as a linear inverse problem with positivity restrictions. Consequently, the Richard-Lucy deconvolution algorithm was used to reconstruct COVID-19 incidences from daily PCR tests. A real-time deconvolution was further developed based on the same mathematical principle. The method was applied to an Omicron epidemic data set of a bar outbreak in Beijing and another in Wuxi in June 2022. We estimated the delay function by maximizing likelihood via an E-M algorithm.ResultsThe delay function of the bar-outbreak in 2022 differs from that reported in 2020. Its mode was shortened to 4 days by one day. A 95% confidence interval of the mean delay is [4.43,5.55] as evaluated by bootstrap. In addition, the deconvolved infection incidences successfully detected two associated infection events after the bar was closed. The application of the real-time deconvolution to the Wuxi data identified all explosive incidence increases. The results revealed the progression of the two COVID-19 outbreaks and provided new insights for prevention and control strategies, especially for the role of mass daily RT-PCR testing.ConclusionsThe proposed deconvolution method is generally applicable to other infectious diseases if the delay model can be assumed to be approximately valid. To ensure a fair reconstruction of daily infection incidences, the delay function should be estimated in a similar context in terms of virus variant and test protocol. Both the delay estimate from the E-M algorithm and the incidences resulted from deconvolution are valuable for epidemic prevention and control. The real-time feedback is particularly useful during the epidemic's acute phase because it can help the local disease control authorities modify the control measures more promptly and precisely.

Dataset Information

Prevalence and outcomes of re-positive nucleic acid tests in discharged COVID-19 patients.

Publications

Prevalence and outcomes of re-positive nucleic acid tests in discharged COVID-19 patients.

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