Dataset Information

Real-time, interactive website for US-county level Covid-19 event risk assessment.

ABSTRACT: Large events and gatherings, particularly those taking place indoors, have been linked to multi-transmission events that have accelerated the pandemic spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). To provide real-time, geo-localized risk information, we developed an interactive online dashboard that estimates the risk that at least one individual with SARS-CoV-2 is present in gatherings of different sizes in the United States. The website combines documented case reports at the county level with ascertainment bias information obtained via population-wide serological surveys to estimate real time circulating, per-capita infection rates. These rates are updated daily as a means to visualize the risk associated with gatherings, including county maps and state-level plots. The website provides data-driven information to help individuals and policy-makers make prudent decisions (e.g., increasing mask wearing compliance and avoiding larger gatherings) that could help control the spread of SARS-CoV-2, particularly in hard-hit regions.

SUBMITTER: Chande A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7457615 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Real-time, interactive website for US-county level Covid-19 event risk assessment.

Chande Aroon A Lee Seolha S Harris Mallory M Hilley Troy T Andris Clio C Weitz Joshua S JS

medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences 20200829

Large events and gatherings, particularly those taking place indoors, have been linked to multi-transmission events that have accelerated the pandemic spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). To provide real-time, geo-localized risk information, we developed an interactive online dashboard that estimates the risk that at least one individual with SARS-CoV-2 is present in gatherings of different sizes in the United States. The website combines documented case report ...[more]

PMID: 32869038

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Project description:ImportanceThe COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted global surgical capacity. The impact of the pandemic in low and middle income countries has the potential to worsen already strained access to surgical care. Timely assessment of surgical volumes in these countries remains challenging.ObjectiveTo determine whether usage data from a globally used anesthesiology calculator mobile application can serve as a proxy for global surgical case volume and contribute to monitoring of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly in World Bank low income countries where official data collection is not currently practical.DesignSubset of data from an ongoing observational cohort study of users of the application collected from October 1, 2018 to April 18, 2020.SettingThe mobile application is available from public sources; users download and use the application per their own clinical needs on personal mobile devices.ParticipantsNo user data was excluded from the study. Exposure(s): Events with impacts on surgical case volumes, including weekends, holidays, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Main Outcome(s) and Measure(s): It was previously noted that application usage was decreased on weekends and during winter holidays. We subsequently hypothesized that more detailed analysis would reveal impacts of country-specific or region-specific holidays on the volume of app use.Results4,300,975 data points from 92,878 unique users were analyzed. Physicians and other anesthesia providers comprised 85.8% of the study population. Application use was reduced on holidays and weekends and correlated with fluctuations in surgical volume. The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with substantial reductions in app use globally and regionally. There was strong cross correlation between COVID-19 case count and reductions in app use. By country, there was a median global reduction in app use to 58% of baseline (interquartile range, 46%-75%). Application use in low-income continues to decline but in high-income countries has stabilized.Conclusions and relevanceApplication usage metadata provides a real-time indicator of surgical volume. This data may be used to identify impacted regions where disruptions to surgical care are disproportionate or prolonged. A dashboard for continuous visualization of these data has been deployed.

Project description:The spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) across the United States confirms that not all Americans are equally at risk of infection, severe disease, or mortality. A range of intersecting biological, demographic, and socioeconomic factors are likely to determine an individual's susceptibility to COVID-19. These factors vary significantly across counties in the United States, and often reflect the structural inequities in our society. Recognizing this vast inter-county variation in risks will be critical to mounting an adequate response strategy. Using publicly available county-specific data we identified key biological, demographic, and socioeconomic factors influencing susceptibility to COVID-19, guided by international experiences and consideration of epidemiological parameters of importance. We created bivariate county-level maps to summarize examples of key relationships across these categories, grouping age and poverty; comorbidities and lack of health insurance; proximity, density and bed capacity; and race and ethnicity, and premature death. We have also made available an interactive online tool that allows public health officials to query risk factors most relevant to their local context. Our data demonstrate significant inter-county variation in key epidemiological risk factors, with a clustering of counties in certain states, which will result in an increased demand on their public health system. While the East and West coast cities are particularly vulnerable owing to their densities (and travel routes), a large number of counties in the Southeastern states have a high proportion of at-risk populations, with high levels of poverty, comorbidities, and premature death at baseline, and low levels of health insurance coverage. The list of variables we have examined is by no means comprehensive, and several of them are interrelated and magnify underlying vulnerabilities. The online tool allows readers to explore additional combinations of risk factors, set categorical thresholds for each covariate, and filter counties above different population thresholds. COVID-19 responses and decision making in the United States remain decentralized. Both the federal and state governments will benefit from recognizing high intra-state, inter-county variation in population risks and response capacity. Many of the factors that are likely to exacerbate the burden of COVID-19 and the demand on healthcare systems are the compounded result of long-standing structural inequalities in US society. Strategies to protect those in the most vulnerable counties will require urgent measures to better support communities' attempts at social distancing and to accelerate cooperation across jurisdictions to supply personnel and equipment to counties that will experience high demand.

Dataset Information

Real-time, interactive website for US-county level Covid-19 event risk assessment.

Publications

Real-time, interactive website for US-county level Covid-19 event risk assessment.

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