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Impacts of COVID-19 on Trade and Economic Aspects of Food Security: Evidence from 45 Developing Countries.

ABSTRACT: The stability of food supply chains is crucial to the food security of people around the world. Since the beginning of 2020, this stability has been undergoing one of the most vigorous pressure tests ever due to the COVID-19 outbreak. From a mere health issue, the pandemic has turned into an economic threat to food security globally in the forms of lockdowns, economic decline, food trade restrictions, and rising food inflation. It is safe to assume that the novel health crisis has badly struck the least developed and developing economies, where people are particularly vulnerable to hunger and malnutrition. However, due to the recency of the COVID-19 problem, the impacts of macroeconomic fluctuations on food insecurity have remained scantily explored. In this study, the authors attempted to bridge this gap by revealing interactions between the food security status of people and the dynamics of COVID-19 cases, food trade, food inflation, and currency volatilities. The study was performed in the cases of 45 developing economies distributed to three groups by the level of income. The consecutive application of the autoregressive distributed lag method, Yamamoto's causality test, and variance decomposition analysis allowed the authors to find the food insecurity effects of COVID-19 to be more perceptible in upper-middle-income economies than in the least developed countries. In the latter, food security risks attributed to the emergence of the health crisis were mainly related to economic access to adequate food supply (food inflation), whereas in higher-income developing economies, availability-sided food security risks (food trade restrictions and currency depreciation) were more prevalent. The approach presented in this paper contributes to the establishment of a methodology framework that may equip decision-makers with up-to-date estimations of health crisis effects on economic parameters of food availability and access to staples in food-insecure communities.

SUBMITTER: Erokhin V

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7459461 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Impacts of COVID-19 on Trade and Economic Aspects of Food Security: Evidence from 45 Developing Countries.

Erokhin Vasilii V Gao Tianming T

International journal of environmental research and public health 20200810 16

The stability of food supply chains is crucial to the food security of people around the world. Since the beginning of 2020, this stability has been undergoing one of the most vigorous pressure tests ever due to the COVID-19 outbreak. From a mere health issue, the pandemic has turned into an economic threat to food security globally in the forms of lockdowns, economic decline, food trade restrictions, and rising food inflation. It is safe to assume that the novel health crisis has badly struck t ...[more]

PMID: 32785155

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Project description:In this paper, we carried out a systematic literature review to document the emerging scientific knowledge about COVID-19 impact on livestock systems and food security in developing countries to identify gaps and possible avenues for future research undertakings. Specifically, we systematically reviewed 68 peer-reviewed articles extracted based on rigorous selection criteria from Scopus, PubMed and ISI Web of Science databases and published between December 2019 and February 2021. Our results reveal that livestock supply chains presented an important 'intermediary' pathway through which the pandemic affected various dimensions of food security in developing countries. Although the research response has been rapid in terms of both quantity and temporal succession, we find a highly suggestive disjunction in studies analyzing the interconnections between COVID-19 pandemic, livestock systems and food security in developing countries. With respect to the livestock supply chain, the bulk of the reviewed evidence focuses on production and consumption, whereas considerably less focus is given to the pandemic's impact on intermediaries within livestock chains, including traders, intermediaries and processors. The analysis of livestock supply chain resilience revolves predominantly around the 'absorbance' and 'recovery' phases of resilience, whereas only a small subset of the literature investigates actions taken by supply chain actors to 'plan' or to 'adapt' livestock systems in order to reduce their vulnerability and enhance their overall resilience. Furthermore, food security has often been narrowly defined, with the majority of articles focusing on 'availability' and 'accessibility' to food due to the pandemic, and other dimensions of food security, including utilization, stability and sustainability, have been widely neglected. Based on our findings, we recommend future research to examine the dynamics of propagation of COVID-19 impact through livestock supply chains in order to develop more targeted interventions that enhance the capacity of developing countries to cope with this and future disruptions and mitigate their food insecurity outcomes. To this end, more holistic, integrated and resilience-based approaches are much recommended to recognize the complex nature of livestock systems in developing countries and to address the multifaceted and widespread effects of COVID-19 on food security channeled through livestock chains.

Project description:BackgroundHome food procurement (HFP) (i.e. gardening, fishing, foraging, hunting, backyard livestock and canning) have historically been important ways that people obtain food. Recently, some HFP activities have grown (e.g. gardening), while other activities (e.g. hunting) have become less common in the United States. Anecdotally, COVID-19 has sparked an increase in HFP evidenced by increased hunting licenses and shortages in seeds and canning supplies. HFP may have positive benefits for food security and diet quality, though research beyond gardening is especially limited in high-income countries.MethodsWe examine HFP activities since the COVID-19 pandemic began, and their relationship to food security and dietary quality using multivariable logit models and matching analysis with a statewide representative survey (n = 600) of residents of Vermont, United States.ResultsWe find 29% of respondent households classified as food insecure since COVID-19, and higher prevalence of food insecurity among those experiencing a negative job change since COVID-19, households earning less than $50,000 annually, Hispanic and multi-race respondents. Nearly 35% of respondents engaged in HFP activities since the COVID-19 pandemic began; the majority of those gardened, and more than half pursued HFP activities more intensely than before the pandemic or for the first time. Food insecure households were more likely to pursue HFP more intensely, including more gardening, fishing, foraging, and hunting. Respondents who were food insecure, Black, Indigenous, People of Color, those with a negative job disruption, and larger households all had greater odds of increased intensity of HFP during the COVID-19 pandemic. HFP was significantly associated with eating greater amounts of fruits and vegetables; however, this effect was only significant for food secure households.ConclusionOverall, these results suggest that HFP activities have increased since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, and may be an important safety net for food insecure households. However, HFP for food insecure households does not translate into the same higher fruit and vegetable intake as found among food secure HFP households, suggesting this population may be trying to maintain intake, or that they may have potential important resource or technical assistance needs. Long-term, HFP activities may have important food security and diet quality impacts, as well as conservation implications, which should be more thoroughly explored. Regardless, the increased interest and intensity of HFP demonstrates opportunities for educational and outreach efforts.

Dataset Information

Impacts of COVID-19 on Trade and Economic Aspects of Food Security: Evidence from 45 Developing Countries.

Publications

Impacts of COVID-19 on Trade and Economic Aspects of Food Security: Evidence from 45 Developing Countries.

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