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Validation of EuroSCORE II in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) surgery at the National Heart Institute, Kuala Lumpur: a retrospective review.

ABSTRACT: Background: The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk (EuroSCORE) II was developed in 2011 to replace the aging EUROScore for predicting in-house mortality after cardiac surgery. Our aim was to validate EuroSCORE II in Malaysian patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery at our Institute. Methods: A retrospective single-center study was performed. A database was created to include EuroSCORE II values and actual mortality of 1718 patients undergoing CABG surgery in Malaysia from 1st January to 31st December 2016. The goodness-of-fit of EuroSCORE II was determined by the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and discriminatory power with the areas under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve (AUC). Results: Observed mortality rate was 4.66% (80 out of 1718 patients). The median EuroSCORE II value was 2.06% (Inter Quartile Range: 1.94%) (1st quartile: 1.45%, 3rd quartile: 3.39%). The AUC for EuroSCORE II was 0.7 (95% CI 0.640 - 0.759) indicating good discriminatory power. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test did not show significant difference between expected and observed mortality in accordance to the EuroSCORE II model (Chi-square = 13.758, p = 0.089) suggesting good calibration of the model in this population. Cross-tabulation analysis showed that there is slight overestimation of EuroSCORE II in low-risk groups (0-10%) and slight underestimation in high-risk groups (>20%). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that gender, age, total hospital stay, serum creatinine and critical pre-operative state are significant predictors of mortality post-CABG surgery. Conclusion: This study indicated that the EuroSCORE II is a good predictor of post-operative mortality in the context of Malaysian patients undergoing CABG surgery. Our study also showed that certain independent variables might possess higher weightage in predicting mortality among this patient group. Therefore, it is suggested that EuroSCORE II can be safely used for risk assessment while ideally, clinical consideration should be applied on an individual basis.

SUBMITTER: Musa AF

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7459866 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common after cardiac surgery and has been associated with poor outcome and increased resource utilization. The main objective of this study is to determine the incidence of POAF in Malaysia and identify the predictors of developing POAF. The secondary outcome of this study would be to investigate the difference in mortality and morbidity rates and the duration of intensive care unit (ICU), high dependency unit (HDU) and hospital stay between the two. Methods: This is a retrospective single-center, cross sectional study conducted at the National Heart Institute, Malaysia. Medical records of 637 who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) surgery in 2015 were accrued. Pre-operative, operative and post-operative information were subsequently collected on a pre-formulated data collection sheet. Data were then analyzed using IBM SPSS v23. Results: The incidence of POAF in our study stands at 28.7% with a mean onset of 45±33 hours post operatively. Variables with independent association with POAF include advancing age, Indian population, history of chronic kidney disease, left ventricular ejection fraction and beta-blocker treatment. The mortality rate is significantly higher statistically ( p < 0.05), and similarly the incidence of stroke. The incidence of other post-operative complications was also significantly higher statistically. The duration of ICU, HDU and hospital stays were statistically longer ( p < 0.001) with higher rates of ICU readmissions and reintubations seen. Conclusion: We conclude that the incidence of POAF in Malaysia is comparable to the figures in Western countries, making POAF one of the most commonly encountered condition after CABG with similar higher rates of mortality, poor outcomes and longer duration of stay, and therefore increased cost of care. Strategies to reduce the incidence of AF after cardiac surgery should favorably affect surgical outcomes and reduce utilization of resources and thus lower cost of care.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Several risk scores have been created to predict long term mortality after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). Several studies demonstrated a reduction in long-term mortality following bilateral internal thoracic arteries (BITA) compared to single internal thoracic artery. However, these prediction models usually referred to long term survival as survival of up to 5 years. Moreover, none of these models were built specifically for operation incorporating BITA grafting. METHODS:A historical cohort study of all patients who underwent isolated BITA grafting between 1996 and 2011 at Tel-Aviv Sourasky medical center, a tertiary referral university affiliated medical center with a 24-bed cardio-thoracic surgery department. Study population (N = 2,935) was randomly divided into 2 groups: learning group which was used to build the prediction model and validation group. Cox regression was used to predict death using pre-procedural risk factors (demographic data, patient comorbidities, cardiac characteristics and patient's status). The accuracy (discrimination and calibration) of the prediction model was evaluated. METHODS AND FINDINGS:The learning (1,468 patients) and validation (1,467 patients) groups had similar preoperative characteristics and similar survival. Older age, diabetes mellitus, chronic obstructive lung disease, congestive heart failure, chronic renal failure, old MI, ejection fraction ?30%, pre-operative use of intra-aortic balloon, and peripheral vascular disease, were significant predictors of mortality and were used to build the prediction model. The area under the ROC curves for 5, 10, and 15-year survival ranged between 0.742 and 0.762 for the learning group and between 0.766 and 0.770 for the validation group. The prediction model showed good calibration performance in both groups. A nomogram was built in order to introduce a simple-to-use tool for prediction of 5, 10, and 15-year survival. CONCLUSIONS:A simple-to-use validated model can be used for a prediction of 5, 10, and 15-year mortality after CABG using the BITA grafting technique.

Project description:BACKGROUNDS:Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of mortality all over the globe. Inflammation is believed to play a pivotal role in the pathophysiology of CVD. While there are studies on the interrelationship of telomerase and vitamin D and their involvement in CVD, their independent contributions to long-term outcomes in patients with CVD are not well-defined. This study aimed to investigate the association of both telomerase and vitamin D concentrations with 10-year survival among candidates of coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) surgery. METHODS:Participants were 404 patients from Tehran Heart Center-Coronary Outcome Measurement (THC-COM) cohort who were recruited from CABG surgery candidates in 2006. In addition to demographic and clinical data including risk factors for coronary artery disease, laboratory parameters such as markers of inflammation as well as baseline serum 25-hydroxy vitamin D [25(OH)D] and telomerase concentrations were measured. Cardiac function indexes alongside outcome measures such as mortality and survival days were recorded for every patient up to 10 years after CABG. Cox-proportional hazard model was used to study the association between all-cause mortality and research parameters. RESULTS:The mean serum telomerase enzyme level was 24.92 ±21.4 nmol/L and the mean serum 25(OH)D was 27.27±10.3 ng/mL. 10-year mortality was reported in 64 (15.8%) patients. 25(OH)D was categorized into three groups (<20, 20-30, and >30) and the cut-point for telomerase was set at 25.0 nmol/L. In Cox regression analysis, higher levels of telomerase (>25 nmol/L) were significantly associated with longer survival (p = 0.041), whereas 25(OH)D concentrations were not associated with survival time. Further analysis showed that telomerase concentrations significantly predicted survival only in the presence of insufficient levels of 25(OH)D (20-30 ng/mL) (p = 0.037). CONCLUSIONS:Telomerase can be regarded as a potential predictor of long-term outcomes in patients who underwent CABG. However, the association of telomerase with the mortality may be modified by vitamin D concentrations.

Project description:BackgroundThe intra aortic balloon pump (IABP) is a mechanical assist device which improves cardiac function. The device has a well-established place in algorithms for managing low cardiac output following cardiac surgery. There is increasing evidence that certain cardiac surgery patients benefit from a period of preoperative augmentation with the intra aortic balloon pump.ObjectivesTo determine the effect of the preoperative intra aortic balloon pump on mortality and morbidity in a number of different patients groups undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting.Search strategyThe Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) on The Cochrane Library (Issue 3, 2009), MEDLINE (2000 to August 2009), EMBASE (1998 to August 2009), BIOSIS previews (1969 to August 2009) and ISI Proceedings (1990 to August 2009) were searched. References and ongoing registers of studies were checked. No language restrictions were applied.Selection criteriaRandomised controlled trials (RCTs) of any size or length were included.Data collection and analysisPapers were assessed for inclusion by two authors independently and differences were settled by consensus with a third author. Date are presented in the form of odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI).Main resultsSix trials were included (five on-pump and one off-pump). This update adds the results of one further trial. Data from a total of 255 patients were included in the meta-analysis of mortality outcomes; all on-pump. Generally, the patients were considered as "high risk" and 132 were treated preoperatively with IABP and 123 served as controls. There were four hospital deaths in the intervention arm and 23 in the non-intervention arm (OR 0.18, 95% CI 0.08 to 0.41; P<0.0001). In a subgroup analysis, low cardiac index (<2.0 L/min/m(2)) was noted in 21 out of 105 patients in the treatment arm and 59 patients out of 88 in the non-treatment arm (OR 0.14, 95% CI: 0.08 to 0.25; P<0.00001). An off-pump versus on-pump analysis was not possible due to the limited number of off-pump studies. However a single well-conducted RCT suggested favourable effect of the preoperative IABP in off-pump patients.Authors' conclusionsEvidence suggests that preoperative IABP may have a beneficial effect on mortality and morbidity in specific high risk patient groups undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting, however there are many problems with the quality, validity and generalisability of the trials. However, the available evidence is not robust enough to extend the use of IABP to truly elective, high risk patients. Defining more precisely which patient groups may benefit would be the challenge for the future.

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Validation of EuroSCORE II in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) surgery at the National Heart Institute, Kuala Lumpur: a retrospective review.

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