Project description:ObjectivesIdentification of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) at risk for deterioration after discharge from the emergency department (ED) remains a clinical challenge. Our objective was to develop a prediction model that identifies patients with COVID-19 at risk for return and hospital admission within 30 days of ED discharge.MethodsWe performed a retrospective cohort study of discharged adult ED patients (n = 7529) with SARS-CoV-2 infection from 116 unique hospitals contributing to the National Registry of Suspected COVID-19 in Emergency Care. The primary outcome was return hospital admission within 30 days. Models were developed using classification and regression tree (CART), gradient boosted machine (GBM), random forest (RF), and least absolute shrinkage and selection (LASSO) approaches.ResultsAmong patients with COVID-19 discharged from the ED on their index encounter, 571 (7.6%) returned for hospital admission within 30 days. The machine-learning (ML) models (GBM, RF, and LASSO) performed similarly. The RF model yielded a test area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.74 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.71-0.78), with a sensitivity of 0.46 (95% CI, 0.39-0.54) and a specificity of 0.84 (95% CI, 0.82-0.85). Predictive variables, including lowest oxygen saturation, temperature, or history of hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, or obesity, were common to all ML models.ConclusionsA predictive model identifying adult ED patients with COVID-19 at risk for return for return hospital admission within 30 days is feasible. Ensemble/boot-strapped classification methods (eg, GBM, RF, and LASSO) outperform the single-tree CART method. Future efforts may focus on the application of ML models in the hospital setting to optimize the allocation of follow-up resources.
Project description:BackgroundCOVID-19 pandemic caused huge decrease of pediatric admissions to Emergency Department (ED), arising concerns about possible delays in diagnosis and treatment of severe disorders.MethodsImpact of COVID-19 on Pediatric Emergency Room (ICOPER) was a retrospective multicentre observational study including 23 Italian EDs.All the children <18 years admitted, between March 9th and May 3rd 2020 stratified by age, priority code, cause of admission and outcome have been included and compared to those admitted in the same period of 2019.Our objectives were to assess the characteristics of pediatric admissions to EDs since COVID-19 outbreak until the end of lockdown, and to describe the features of critical children.Findings16,426 children were admitted in 2020, compared to 55,643 in 2019 (-70·48%). Higher reduction was reported in hospitals without Pediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU) (-73·38%) than in those with PICU (-64·08%) (P<0·0001). Admissions with low priority decreased more than critical ones (-82·77% vs. 44·17% respectively; P<0·0001). Reduction of discharged patients was observed both in hospitals with (-66·50%) and without PICU (-74·65%) (P<0·0001). No difference in the duration of symptoms before admission was reported between 2019 and 2020, with the majority of children accessing within 24 h (55·08% vs. 57·28% respectively; P = 0·2344).InterpretationAdmissions with low priority decreased significantly more than those with high priority; we suppose that the fear of being infected in hospital maybe overcame the concerns of caregivers. Compared to 2019, no significant referral delay by caregivers was reported. Our data suggest the need of adaptation of EDs and primary care services to different needs of children during COVID-9 pandemic.
Project description:PurposePsychiatric emergency hospital admissions for distinct psychiatric disorders and length of inpatient stay in the hospital during the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak have not been thoroughly assessed.MethodsA retrospective study was performed analyzing claims data from a large German Hospital network during the COVID-19 outbreak (study period: March 13-May 21, 2020) as compared to periods directly before the outbreak (same year control: January 1-March 12, 2020) and one year earlier (previous year control: March 13-May 21, 2019).ResultsA total of 13,151 emergency hospital admissions for psychiatric diagnoses were included in the analysis. For all psychiatric diagnoses combined, emergency admissions significantly decreased during the study period with mean (interquartile range) incidence rate ratios (IRRs) of 0.68 (0.65, 0.71) and 0.70 (0.67, 0.73) as compared to the same and previous year controls, respectively (both p < 0.00001). IRR ranged from 0.56 for mood affective disorders (F30-F39) to 0.75 for mental disorders due to psychoactive substance use (F10-F19; all p < 0.00001). Mean (standard deviation) length of hospital stay for all psychiatric diagnoses was significantly shorter during the study period [9.8 (11.6) days] as compared to same [14.7 (18.7) days] and previous [16.4 (23.9) days] year controls (both p < 0.00001).ConclusionBoth emergency hospital admissions and length of hospital stay significantly decreased for psychiatric disorders during the COVID-19 outbreak. It needs to be assessed in further studies whether healthcare systems will face increased demand for the provision of mental health care in the nearer future.
Project description:BackgroundDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, there have been an increasing number of emergency department visits for behavioral health reasons, even as overall emergency department volumes have decreased. The impact of the pandemic and related public health interventions on specialized psychiatric emergency services has not been described. These services provide high-intensity care for severely ill patients who are likely to be homeless and underserved.ObjectiveWe describe the change in total volume and psychiatric hospitalization rates among three psychiatric emergency services across the United States.MethodsChanges in volumes and hospitalization were assessed for statistical significance using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous factors model from January 2018 to December 2020.ResultsThe pandemic's impact on volumes and hospitalization varied by site. In Denver (CO), there was a statistically significant 9% decrease in overall volumes, although an 18% increase in hospitalizations was not significant. In New York City (NY), there was a significant 7% decrease in volumes as well as a significant 6% decrease in hospitalizations. In Portland (OR), volumes decreased by 4% and hospitalizations increased by 6% although differences did not reach statistical significance.ConclusionsThere has been a decrease in volume at these services after the pandemic, but there are substantial variations in the magnitude of change and demand for hospitalization by region. These findings suggest a need to understand where patients in crisis are seeking care and how systems of care must adapt to changing utilization in the pandemic era.
Project description:BackgroundAs a result of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), there have been widespread changes in healthcare access. We conducted a retrospective population-based study in Alberta, Canada (population 4.4 million), where there have been approximately 1550 hospital admissions for COVID-19, to determine the impact of COVID-19 on hospital admissions and emergency department (ED visits), following initiation of a public health emergency act on March 15, 2020.MethodsWe used multivariable negative binomial regression models to compare daily numbers of medical/surgical hospital admissions via the ED between March 16-September 23, 2019 (pre COVID-19) and March 16-September 23, 2020 (post COVID-19 public health measures). We compared the most frequent diagnoses for hospital admissions pre/post COVID-19 public health measures. A similar analysis was completed for numbers of daily ED visits for any reason with a particular focus on ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSC).FindingsThere was a significant reduction in both daily medical (incident rate ratio (IRR) 0.86, p<0.001) and surgical (IRR 0.82, p<0.001) admissions through the ED in Alberta post COVID-19 public health measures. There was a significant decline in daily ED visits (IRR 0.65, p<0.001) including ACSC (IRR 0.75, p<0.001). The most common medical/surgical diagnoses for hospital admissions did not vary substantially pre and post COVID-19 public health measures, though there was a significant reduction in admissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and a significant increase in admissions for mental and behavioral disorders due to use of alcohol.ConclusionsDespite a relatively low volume of COVID-19 hospital admissions in Alberta, there was an extensive impact on our healthcare system with fewer admissions to hospital and ED visits. This work generates hypotheses around causes for reduced hospital admissions and ED visits which warrant further investigation. As most publicly funded health systems struggle with health-system capacity routinely, understanding how these reductions can be safely sustained will be critical.
Project description:ObjectivesThe aim of this study was to describe the types of emergency departments (EDs), and the acuity, types and disposition of conditions managed at Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF)-supported EDs in humanitarian settings.Design, setting, participants and outcome measuresThis was a multicentre, cross-sectional review of visits to MSF-supported EDs from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2018. EDs were classified into advanced-level, general-level, paediatric and trauma. Variables analysed included: age group, condition, acuity and ED disposition. Frequencies and percentages stratified by ED type or region were reported.ResultsMSF supported 26 EDs in 12 countries, with a total of 1 388 698 visits between 2014 and 2018. Most patients were discharged home (n=1 097 456, 79%), with nearly 0% mortality (n=4692). The majority of visits at general-level and paediatric EDs were for medical conditions (n=600 088, 78% and n=45 276, 96%, respectively), while nearly half of advanced-level EDs visits were for surgical conditions (n=201 189, 48%). Almost all visits to trauma EDs were for surgical conditions (n=148 078, 98%). Overall, most surgical conditions were traumatic injuries (n=484 008, 94%), the majority unintentional (n=425 487, 82%). The top three most common classified medical conditions were respiratory infections, malaria and diarrhoea.ConclusionsEDs are critical in improving the agility and access to emergency care (EC) in humanitarian settings. This study demonstrated that EC provision resulted in the majority of patients being discharged from EDs, helping prevent avoidable hospital admissions. These results could help better understand the healthcare needs of vulnerable populations, improve responsiveness to emergency conditions and support programmatic planning in humanitarian settings.
Project description:OBJECTIVES:To estimate the proportion of visits to U.S. emergency departments (EDs) in which a diagnosis of elder abuse is reached using two nationally representative datasets. DESIGN:Retrospective cross-sectional analysis. SETTING:U.S. ED visits recorded in the 2012 Nationwide Emergency Department Sample (NEDS) or the 2011 National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NHAMCS). PARTICIPANTS:All ED visits of individuals aged 60 and older. MEASUREMENTS:The primary outcome was elder abuse defined according to International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification diagnosis codes. The proportion of visits with elder abuse was estimated using survey weights. Odds ratios (ORs) were calculated to identify demographic characteristics and common ED diagnoses associated with elder abuse. RESULTS:In 2012, NEDS contained information on 6,723,667 ED visits of older adults, representing an estimated 29,056,673 ED visits. Elder abuse was diagnosed in an estimated 3,846 visits, corresponding to a weighted diagnosis period prevalence of elder abuse in U.S. EDs of 0.013% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.012-0.015%). Neglect and physical abuse were the most common types diagnosed, accounting for 32.9% and 32.2% of cases, respectively. Multivariable analysis showed greater weighted odds of elder abuse diagnosis in women (odds ratio (OR) = 1.95, 95% CI = 1.68-2.26) and individuals with contusions (OR = 2.91, 95% CI = 2.36-3.57), urinary tract infection (OR = 2.21, 95% CI = 1.84-2.65), and septicemia (OR = 1.92, 95% CI = 1.44-2.55). In the 2011 NHAMCS dataset, no cases of elder abuse were recorded for the 5,965 older adult ED visits. CONCLUSION:The proportion of U.S. ED visits by older adults receiving a diagnosis of elder abuse is at least two orders of magnitude lower than the estimated prevalence in the population. Efforts to improve the identification of elder abuse in EDs may be warranted.
Project description:ObjectivesFollowing the outbreak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus and the subsequent global spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), health systems and the populations who use them have faced unprecedented challenges. We aimed to measure the impact of COVID-19 on the uptake of hospital-based care at a national level.DesignThe study period (weeks ending 5 January to 28 June 2020) encompassed the pandemic announcement by the World Health Organization and the initiation of the UK lockdown. We undertook an interrupted time-series analysis to evaluate the impact of these events on hospital services at a national level and across demographics, clinical specialties and National Health Service Health Boards.SettingScotland, UK.ParticipantsPatients receiving hospital care from National Health Service Scotland.Main outcome measuresAccident and emergency (A&E) attendances, and emergency and planned hospital admissions measured using the relative change of weekly counts in 2020 to the averaged counts for equivalent weeks in 2018 and 2019.ResultsBefore the pandemic announcement, the uptake of hospital care was largely consistent with historical levels. This was followed by sharp drops in all outcomes until UK lockdown, where activity began to steadily increase. This time-period saw an average reduction of -40.7% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -47.7 to -33.7) in A&E attendances, -25.8% (95% CI: -31.1 to -20.4) in emergency hospital admissions and -60.9% (95% CI: -66.1 to -55.7) in planned hospital admissions, in comparison to the 2018-2019 averages. All subgroup trends were broadly consistent within outcomes, but with notable variations across age groups, specialties and geography.ConclusionsCOVID-19 has had a profoundly disruptive impact on hospital-based care across National Health Service Scotland. This has likely led to an adverse effect on non-COVID-19-related illnesses, increasing the possibility of potentially avoidable morbidity and mortality. Further research is required to elucidate these impacts.
Project description:The objective of the present study was to describe the incidence and the characteristics of Self-Injurious Thoughts and Behaviors (SITBs), among adolescents aged 11-18 admitted, over a two year period, to all the Emergency Departments of a Region of North-eastern Italy through a comprehensive analysis of medical records. A two-step search was performed in the regional ED electronic database. First, we identified the cases that had been clearly diagnosed as SITBs by an Emergency Department physician. Secondly, suspect cases were detected through a keyword search of the database, and the medical records of these cases were hand screened to identify SITBs. The mean annual incidence rate of SITBs was 90 per 100,000 adolescents aged 11-18 years. Events were more frequent in females. Drug poisoning was the most frequently adopted method (54%). In 42% of cases a diagnosis of SITB was not explicitly reported by the physician. In 65% of cases adolescents were discharged within hours of admission. Only 9% of patients started a psychiatric assessment and treatment program during hospital stay. This research confirms the high incidence of SITBs among adolescents and highlights the difficulty in their proper diagnosis and management. Such difficulty is confirmed by the fact that only a few patients, even among those with a clear diagnosis, were sent for psychiatric assessment. Correct identification and management of SITB patients needs to be improved, since SITBs are an important public health problem in adolescence and one of the main risk factors for suicide.