Distinct temporal trends in breast cancer incidence from 1997 to 2016 by molecular subtypes: a population-based study of Scottish cancer registry data.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT: Background
We describe temporal trends in breast cancer incidence by molecular subtypes in Scotland because public health prevention programmes, diagnostic and therapeutic services are shaped by differences in tumour biology.Methods
Population-based cancer registry data on 72,217 women diagnosed with incident primary breast cancer from 1997 to 2016 were analysed. Age-standardised rates (ASR) and age-specific incidence were estimated by tumour subtype after imputing the 8% of missing oestrogen receptor (ER) status. Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort models were used to assess whether significant differences were observed in incidence trends by ER status.Results
Overall, ER-positive tumour incidence increased by 0.4%/year (95% confidence interval (CI): -0.1, 1.0). Among routinely screened women aged 50-69 years, we observed an increase in ASR from 1997 to 2011 (1.6%/year, 95% CI: 1.2-2.1). ER-negative tumour incidence decreased among all ages by 2.5%/year (95% CI: -3.9 to -1.1%) over the study period. Compared with the 1941-1959 birth cohort, women born in 1912-1940 had lower incidence rate ratios (IRR) for ER+ tumours and women born in 1960-1986 had lower IRR for ER- tumours.Conclusions
Future incidence and survival reporting should be monitored by molecular subtypes to inform clinical planning and cancer control programmes.
SUBMITTER: Mesa-Eguiagaray I
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7463252 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Similar Datasets
Project description:BackgroundBladder cancer is a leading cause of cancer-related deaths all over the world. Epidemiological studies of bladder cancer are therefore crucial for policy making. This study was carried out to describe the characteristics of changes in the incidence and mortality of bladder cancer from 1990 to 2016 by age group, gender, geographical region, and sociodemographic index (SDI) and to simultaneously project future trends up to 2030.MethodsIncidence and mortality trends in bladder cancer from 1990 to 2016 were described based on data and methodologies from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study. The data also allowed the future trends of bladder cancer incidence and mortality to be predicted by ARIMA model. Trends were analyzed by age group, gender, and SDI. Projections to 2030 were sub-analyzed by SDI countries. R software (x64 version 3.5.1), SAS (version 9.3), and SPSS (version 22.0) were used throughout the process.ResultsGlobally, in 2016, there were 437,442 [95% uncertainty interval (UI), 426,709-447,912] new bladder cancer cases and 186,199 (95% UI, 180,453-191,686) bladder cancer-associated deaths. Between 1990 and 2016, changes in the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of bladder cancer decreased by 5.91% from 7.11 (95% UI, 6.93-7.27) in 1990 to 6.69 (95% UI, 6.52-6.85) in 2016. The age-standardized death rate (ASDR) decreased from 3.58 (95% UI, 3.49-3.68) to 2.94 (95% UI, 2.85-3.03) over the same period of time. In future, the greatest occurrence of bladder cancer will be in high SDI countries, followed by high-middle SDI countries. Moreover, bladder cancer incidence rates may increase substantially in middle SDI countries, while the incidence rates will remain relatively stable for men and women in other SDI countries. From 2017 to 2030, bladder cancer deaths will continue to increase in low SDI countries, while deaths in other SDI countries will continue to decrease.ConclusionsThere was a regional difference in the incidence and mortality trends of bladder cancer between 1990 and 2016. Overall, the situation is not optimistic. From 2017 to 2030, the incidence of bladder cancer will continue to rise, especially in high and high-middle SDI countries, where decision-makers should propose appropriate policies on the screening and prevention of bladder cancer.
| S-EPMC7215039 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Suicide rates worldwide are declining; however, less is known about the patterns and trends in mortality from suicide in sub-Saharan Africa. This study evaluates trends in suicide rates and years of potential life lost from death registration data in South Africa from 1997 to 2016. Suicide (X60-X84 and Y87) was coded using the 10th Revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10). Changes in mortality rate trends were analysed using joinpoint regression analysis. The 20-year study examines 8573 suicides in South Africa, comprising 0.1% of all deaths involving persons 15 years and older. Rates of suicide per 100,000 population were 2.07 in men and 0.49 in women. Joinpoint regression analyses showed that, while the overall mortality rate for male suicides remained stable, mortality rates due to hanging and poisoning increased by 3.9% and 3.5% per year, respectively. Female suicide mortality rates increased by 12.6% from 1997 to 2004 before stabilising; while rates due to hanging increased by 3.0% per year. The average annual YPLL due to suicide was 9559 in men and 2612 in women. The results show that suicide contributes substantially to premature death and demonstrates the need for targeted interventions, especially among young men in South Africa.
| S-EPMC7142470 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceBreast cancer incidence trends by age and race/ethnicity have been documented; it is less clear whether incidence trends of breast cancer molecular subtypes, which differ in risk factors and prognosis, also vary by age and race/ethnicity.ObjectiveTo estimate annual percentage changes and trends in breast cancer molecular subtype-specific incidence rates by age at diagnosis and race/ethnicity in the US.Design, setting, and participantsThis population-based cross-sectional study included data from 18 cancer registries in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database, capturing 27.8% of the US population. Hispanic and non-Hispanic White, Black, and Asian/Pacific Islander women aged 25 to 84 years who were diagnosed with invasive breast cancer from 2010 to 2016 were included. Data were analyzed from September 2019 to February 2020.ExposuresAge and racial/ethnic groups.Main outcomes and measuresAnnual percentage change (APC) and 95% CIs for age-standardized breast cancer incidence rates stratified by 15-year age groups at diagnosis and race/ethnicity.ResultsOf 320 124 women diagnosed with breast cancer from 2010 to 2016, 232 558 (72.6%) had luminal A, 35 869 (11.2%) had luminal B, 15 472 (4.8%) had ERBB2-enriched, and 36 225 (11.3%) had triple-negative breast cancer subtypes. Luminal A breast cancer incidence rates increased in non-Hispanic White (APC from 2010-2014, 2.3%; 95% CI, 0.3% to 4.2%) and non-Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander (APC from 2010-2016, 2.5%; 95% CI, 0.6% to 4.5%) women aged 40 to 54 years, and in non-Hispanic Black women aged 55 to 69 years women (APC from 2010-2012, 4.9%; 95% CI, 4.0% to 5.7%). Luminal B breast cancer incidence rates increased in all age groups for non-Hispanic White women (age 25-39 years: APC, 4.3%; 95% CI, 1.5% to 7.%2; age 40-54 years: APC, 3.5%; 95% CI, 1.4% to 5.6%; age 55-69 years: APC, 3.3%; 95% CI, 1.6% to 5.0%; age 70-84 years: APC, 3.9%; 95% CI, 1.9% to 6.0%) and Hispanic women (age 25-39 years: APC, 8.4%; 95% CI, 5.8% to 11.2%; age 40-54 years: APC, 6.1%; 95% CI, 4.2% to 8.0%; age 55-69 years: APC, 5.1%; 95% CI, 1.5% to 8.8%; age 70-84 years: APC, 7.1%; 95% CI, 4.6% to 9.6%) and in non-Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander women aged 55 to 69 years (APC, 6.1%; 95% CI, 3.2% to 9.0%). ERBB2-enriched breast cancer incidence rates increased in non-Hispanic White women aged 25 to 39 years (APC, 4.7%; 95% CI, 1.5% to 8.0%). Triple-negative breast cancer incidence rates decreased in non-Hispanic White women aged 40 to 54 years (APC, -2.3%; 95% CI, -3.8% to -0.7%) and 55 to 69 years (APC, -3.6%; 95% CI, -5.1% to -2.1%) and in non-Hispanic Black women aged 55 to 69 years (APC, -1.4%; 95% CI, -2.2% to -0.7%).Conclusions and relevanceThe findings of this cross-sectional study suggest that between 2010 and 2016, luminal A and luminal B breast cancer incidence rates increased for many racial/ethnic and age groups, with the largest increases observed for luminal B breast cancer. ERBB2-enriched breast cancer incidence rates increased for young non-Hispanic White women, while triple-negative breast cancer incidence rates decreased for midlife non-Hispanic White and non-Hispanic Black women. These trends may suggest changes in breast cancer risk factor profiles across age and racial/ethnic groups.
| S-EPMC7431997 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Early-onset (<50 years old) colorectal cancer (CRC) has been increasing worldwide and is associated with poor outcomes. Over 85% of the Saudi population are <50 years old, which put them at heightened risk of early-onset CRC. No study assessed the trends in CRC incidence rates among the Saudis. The Joinpoint Regression software by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program was used to estimate the magnitude and direction of CRC incidence trends by age and gender. The annual percentage change (APC) and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) between 2001 and 2016 were computed. In a sensitivity analysis, we also assessed trends using various age groups. Between 2001 and 2016, the early-onset CRC incidence (per 105) increased from 1.32 (95% CI: 1.11, 1.54) to 2.02 (95% CI: 1.83, 2.22) with AAPC (2.6, 95% CI: -0.4, 5.7). At same period, the late-onset incidence increased from 3.54 (95% CI: 3.10, 3.97) to 9.14 (95% CI: 8.62, 9.66) with AAPC (6.1, 95% CI: 3.5, 8.8). Among early-onset CRC patients, age 40-49 has the highest rates and women in this age group has higher rate than men. Our national data showed a gradual increase in CRC incidence rates, which reflect the global concern of early-onset CRC. Further research is needed to understand the etiology of early-onset CRC. Primary health care providers must be alerted about the increasing rate of early-onset CRC. To reduce the future burden of the disease, initiating CRC screening before age 50 is warranted.
| S-EPMC8460085 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Recent reports have noted increasing rates of anal cancer among high-income countries worldwide; however, little is known about these trends in Austria. METHODS:Data on anal cancer from 1983 to 2016 were obtained from Statistics Austria. All tumors (n = 3567) were classified into anal squamous cell carcinomas (ASCC), anal adenocarcinomas (AADC), and others (unspecified carcinoma and other specific carcinoma). Anal cancer incidence rates were calculated in 5‑year cycles and incidence average annual percentage change (AAPC) to evaluate trends by sex, histology and age group. RESULTS:The incidence rate of anal cancer was higher among females than males (relative risk, RR = 1.66, 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.55-1.79, p < 0.0001). From 1983 through 2016, incident anal cancer increased significantly (0.92 per 100,000 person-years to 1.85 per 100,000 person-years, AAPC = 1.93, 95% CI: 1.52 to 2.34, p < 0.0001), particularly among those 40-69 years old. From 1983 through 2016, the increasing anal cancer incidence was primarily driven by ASCC (0.47-1.20 per 100,000 person-years, AAPC = 2.23, 95% CI: 1.58 to 2.88, p < 0.0001) and others (other than ASCC and AADC, AAPC = 1.78, 95% CI: 1.01-2.55), yet stable in AADC (AAPC = 0.88, 95% CI: -0.48-2.25). CONCLUSIONS:Despite being a rare cancer in Austria, the increase in anal cancer incidence rate from 1983 to 2016 was substantial, particularly in ASCC. The observed rising trends reflect the need to investigate associated risk factors that have increased over time to inform preventive measures.
| S-EPMC7445201 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesTime trends on the incidence and characteristics of invasive vulvar cancer in Germany have so far been studied in few local population- and hospital based tumor registries. We aimed to provide an overview on recent developments of vulvar cancer in Germany, using population-based cancer registry data.MethodsWe analyzed the data on vulvar cancer of eight population-based German cancer registries for the period 1999-2011. ICD-10 codes and ICD-O-3 morphology codes were used to select site and histologic types. The annual percentage change was calculated on age-adjusted incidence rates with a joinpoint regression model.ResultsA total of 12,711 registered cases of invasive carcinoma of the vulva were included in the analyses, hereof were 12,205 of squamous cell origin. Age-standardized incidence rates of vulvar cancer annually increased by 6.7% (95% confidence limits: 5.6-7.9) from 1.7 per 100,000 women in 1999 to 3.6 per 100,000 women in 2011. An increase was observed among women of all ages, and especially between 30 and 69 years of age.ConclusionThe annual incidence of invasive carcinoma of the vulva nearly doubled in the past decade in Germany, considerably exceeding the rates observed in other Western European countries. A combination of changes in risk factors, and documentation practice might have contributed to the observed substantial increase in vulvar cancer incidence.
| S-EPMC4447423 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceHeart failure (HF) incidence is declining among Medicare beneficiaries. However, the epidemiological mechanisms underlying this decline are not well understood.ObjectiveTo evaluate trends in HF incidence across risk factor strata.Design, setting, and participantsRetrospective, national cohort study of 5% of all fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries with no prior HF followed up from 2011 to 2016. The study examined annual trends in HF incidence among groups with and without primary HF risk factors (hypertension, diabetes, and obesity) and predisposing cardiovascular conditions (acute myocardial infarction [MI] and atrial fibrillation [AF]).ExposuresThe presence of comorbid HF risk factors including hypertension, diabetes, obesity, acute MI, and AF identified by International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification codes and International Statistical Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification codes.Main outcomes and measuresIncident HF, defined using at least 1 inpatient HF claim or at least 2 outpatient HF claims among those without a previous diagnosis of HF.ResultsOf 1 799 027 unique Medicare beneficiaries at risk for HF (median age, 73 years [interquartile range, 68-79 years]; 56% female [805 060-796 253 participants during the study period]), 249 832 had a new diagnosis of HF. The prevalence of all 5 risk factors increased over time (0.8% mean increase in hypertension per year, 1.9% increase in diabetes, 2.9% increase in obesity, 0.2% increase in acute MI, and 0.4% increase in AF). Heart failure incidence declined from 35.7 cases per 1000 beneficiaries in 2011 to 26.5 cases per 1000 beneficiaries in 2016, consistent across subgroups based on sex and race/ethnicity. A greater decline in HF incidence was observed among patients with prevalent hypertension (relative excess decline, 12%), diabetes (relative excess decline, 3%), and obesity (relative excess decline, 16%) compared with those without corresponding risk factors. In contrast, there was a relative increase in HF incidence among individuals with acute MI (26% vs no acute MI) and AF (22% vs no AF).Conclusions and relevanceFindings of this study suggest that the temporal decline in HF incidence among Medicare beneficiaries reflects a decrease in HF incidence among those with primary HF risk factors. The increase in HF incidence among those with acute MI and those with AF highlights potential targets for future HF prevention strategies.
| S-EPMC7584929 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesOver the last decades, mortality from cerebrovascular diseases (CVDs) has decreased in many countries. The aim of this study was to assess the trends of CVDs mortality in Serbia.MethodsDescriptive epidemiological study. Age-standardised rates (ASRs) for CVDs mortality were assessed by joinpoint regression analysis to identify significant changes in trends and estimate annual per cent changes with 95% CI. The age-period-cohort analysis has been used to describe variations in mortality.ResultsOver this 20-year period, there were 312 847 deaths from CVDs, with the overall average annual ASR of 148.4 per 100 000. The trend of ASRs from CVDs mortality in males in Serbia showed a significant joinpoint: rates insignificantly decreased from 1997 to 2005 by -0.8% per year (95% CI -1.7% to 0.2%) and thereafter rapidly decreased by -5.0% per year (95% CI -5.6% to -4.5%). A joinpoint for females was found in 2006: the mortality trend was first significantly decreasing by -1.0% per year (95% CI -1.9% to -0.0%) and then sharply falling down by -6.0% per year (95% CI -6.8% to -5.3%). Results of age-period-cohort analysis indicated that the relative risk for CVDs mortality showed statistically significant (p<0.05) cohort and period effects, as well as the net drift and local drifts in Serbian population. The trends in mortality for all subtypes of CVDs were similar in both sexes: trends significantly decreased for most subtypes, with the exception of a significant increase for cerebral infarction.ConclusionsAfter a decade of increase, CVDs mortality rates are declining in last decade in Serbia. However, mortality rates from CVDs remain exceedingly high in Serbia. Differences in mortality trends of the stroke subtypes should be taken into account in the creation of both prevention and treatment guidelines.
| S-EPMC6398636 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundRecent studies have reported substantial increases in cancer incidence in young adults under 40 years in the United States.MethodsWe applied hierarchical cluster analysis to identify cancer anatomical clustering, for 48 anatomic sites, using incidence trends since 1973 for 25- to 39-year-olds.ResultsTemporal trends mapped to three major clusters in men involving six organ systems (digestive, endocrine, urinary, blood, respiratory, and male genital) and one cluster in women involving five systems (digestive, endocrine, urinary, female genital, central nervous system). For both men and women, kidney, thyroid, and colorectal cancers consistently clustered for all ages 25-39 and for each 5-year age subgroup. Further, several cancers linked to the endocrine and digestive systems (three in men and six in women) had highly consistent temporal incidence trends.ConclusionsThese findings suggest that there may be organ system connections for cancers of the endocrine and digestive systems; etiologic approaches focused on clusters of cancers rather than individual cancers may prove fruitful.
| S-EPMC7269825 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundPrevious research has identified an association between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution and lung cancer. Most of the evidence for this association, however, is based on research using lung cancer mortality, not incidence. Research that examines potential associations between PM2.5 and incidence of non-lung cancers is limited.ObjectivesThe primary purpose of this study was to evaluate the association between the incidence of cancer and exposure to PM2.5 using >8.5 million cases of cancer incidences from U.S. registries. Secondary objectives include evaluating the sensitivity of the associations to model selection, spatial control, and latency period as well as estimating the exposure-response relationship for several cancer types.MethodsSurveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program data were used to calculate incidence rates for various cancer types in 607 U.S. counties. County-level PM2.5 concentrations were estimated using integrated empirical geographic regression models. Flexible semi-nonparametric regression models were used to estimate associations between PM2.5 and cancer incidence for selected cancers while controlling for important county-level covariates. Primary time-independent models using average incidence rates from 1992-2016 and average PM2.5 from 1988-2015 were estimated. In addition, time-varying models using annual incidence rates from 2002-2011 and lagged moving averages of annual estimates for PM2.5 were also estimated.ResultsThe incidences of all cancer and lung cancer were consistently associated with PM2.5. The incident rate ratios (IRRs), per 10-μg/m3 increase in PM2.5, for all and lung cancer were 1.09 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.14) and 1.19 (95% CI: 1.09, 1.30), respectively. Less robust associations were observed with oral, rectal, liver, skin, breast, and kidney cancers.DiscussionExposure to PM2.5 air pollution contributes to lung cancer incidence and is potentially associated with non-lung cancer incidence. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP7246.
| S-EPMC7546438 | biostudies-literature