Dataset Information

The impact of community containment implementation timing on the spread of COVID-19: A simulation study.

ABSTRACT: Background: Community containment is one of the common methods used to mitigate infectious disease outbreaks. The effectiveness of such a method depends on how strictly it is applied and the timing of its implementation. An early start and being strict is very effective; however, at the same time, it impacts freedom and economic opportunity. Here we created a simulation model to understand the effect of the starting day of community containment on the ?nal outcome, that is, the number of those infected, hospitalized and those that died, as we followed the dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: We used a stochastic recursive simulation method to apply disease outbreak dynamics measures of COVID-19 as an example to simulate disease spread. Parameters are allowed to be randomly assigned between higher and lower values obtained from published COVID-19 literature. Results: We simulated the dynamics of COVID-19 spread, calculated the number of active infections, hospitalizations and deaths as the outcome of our simulation and compared these results with real world data. We also represented the details of the spread in a network graph structure, and shared the code for the simulation model to be used for examining other variables. Conclusions: Early implementation of community containment has a big impact on the ?nal outcome of an outbreak.

SUBMITTER: Mohsen A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7463296 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The impact of community containment implementation timing on the spread of COVID-19: A simulation study.

Mohsen Attayeb A Alarabi Ahmed A

F1000Research 20200527

<b>Background:</b> Community containment is one of the common methods used to mitigate infectious disease outbreaks. The effectiveness of such a method depends on how strictly it is applied and the timing of its implementation. An early start and being strict is very effective; however, at the same time, it impacts freedom and economic opportunity. Here we created a simulation model to understand the effect of the starting day of community containment on the ﬁnal outcome, that is, the number of ...[more]

PMID: 32913638

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Project description:Since the appearance of the first case of COVID-19 in Morocco on March, 02, 2020, the cumulative number of reported infectious cases continues to increase and, up to date, the peak-time of infection is not reached yet. In this study, we propose a Susceptible-Asymptomatic-Infectious deterministic model to evaluate the impact of compulsory containment imposed in Morocco on March, 21 on the spread of COVID-19 epidemic across the country. The model takes account of the unconfined individuals that continue to work or to leave their home for urgent needs and the existence of infectious asymptomatic and unreported individuals within susceptible population. Furthermore, the model is able to predict the peak-size, peak-time, final size and epidemic duration according to different rates of containment. Advanced knowledge of these details will be of great interest to establish an optimal plan-of-action to control or eradicate the epidemic. Indeed, mitigating and delaying the epidemic peak allow the official health authorities to anticipate and control the spread of COVID-19. Moreover, prediction of the epidemic duration can help the government to predict the end time of containment to avoid consequent social-economic damages as well. Using our model, the basic reproduction number R 0 is estimated to be 2.9949, with CI(2.6729-3.1485), reflecting a high speed of spread of the epidemic. The model shows that the compulsory containment can be efficient if more than 73% of population are confined. In the absence of other efficient measure of control, even with 90% of containment, the end-time is estimated to happen on July, 4, 2020 with 7558 final cumulative cases. Furthermore, a threshold value of containment rate, below which the epidemic duration is postponed, has been determined. Finally, the sensitivity analysis is performed and showed that the COVID-19 dynamics strongly depends on the asymptomatic duration as well as the contact and containment rates. Our previsions can help the government to adjust its plan-of-action to fight the disease and to face the social-economic shock induced by the containment.

Dataset Information

The impact of community containment implementation timing on the spread of COVID-19: A simulation study.

Publications

The impact of community containment implementation timing on the spread of COVID-19: A simulation study.

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