Dataset Information

Assessing the strength of evidence for a causal effect of respiratory syncytial virus lower respiratory tract infections on subsequent wheezing illness: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Although a positive association has been established, it is unclear whether lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) cause chronic wheezing illnesses. If RSV-LRTI were causal, we would expect RSV-LRTI prevention to reduce the incidence of chronic wheezing illnesses in addition to reducing acute disease. We aimed to evaluate the strength of evidence for a causal effect of RSV-LRTI on subsequent chronic wheezing illness to inform public health expectations for RSV vaccines.

Methods

We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies evaluating the association between RSV-LRTI and subsequent wheezing illness (exposure studies) and studies evaluating the association between RSV immunoprophylaxis and subsequent wheezing illness (immunoprophylaxis studies). Exposure studies were included if the exposure group members had an LRTI with laboratory-confirmed RSV and if the exposure ascertainment period began before 2 years of age and ended before 5 years of age. We required a wash-out period of more than 30 days between the index RSV-LRTI and the outcome measurement to allow for resolution of the acute illness. Comparisons between RSV-LRTI and non-RSV-LRTI were not included. Immunoprophylaxis studies were included if they measured the association with subsequent wheezing illness relative to a control group, either in a randomised controlled trial (RCT) or an observational design. For the immunoprophylaxis drugs in question, we required evidence of efficacy in targeting RSV-LRTI from at least one RCT to ensure biological plausibility. All variations of wheezing illness were combined into a single outcome that refers broadly to asthma or any other respiratory illness with wheezing symptoms. Ovid MEDLINE and Embase databases were searched from inception up to Aug 28, 2018. We evaluated whether data from exposure studies could provide evidence against the most viable non-causal theory that RSV-LRTI is a marker of respiratory illness susceptibility rather than a causal factor. Additionally, we tested whether RSV immunoprophylaxis reduces the odds of subsequent wheezing illnesses. We used a random-effects modelling framework and, to accommodate studies providing multiple correlated estimates, robust variance estimation meta-regressions. Meta-regression coefficients (b) quantify differences between exposure and comparator groups on the log_e odds ratio (log_e OR) scale.

Findings

From 14 235 records we identified 57 eligible articles that described 42 studies and provided 153 effect estimates. 35 studies estimated the direct effect of RSV-LRTI on wheezing illnesses (exposure studies) and eight evaluated the effect of RSV immunoprophylaxis (immunoprophylaxis studies). Exposure studies that adjusted for genetic influences yielded a smaller mean adjusted OR estimate (aOR₊ 2·45, 95% CI 1·23-4·88) compared with those that did not (4·17, 2·36-7·37), a significant difference (b 0·53, 95% CI 0·04-1·02). Infants who were not protected with RSV immunoprophylaxis tended to have higher odds of subsequent wheezing illness, as we would expect if RSV-LRTI were causal, but the effect was not significant (OR₊ 1·21, 95% CI 0·73-1·99). There was generally a high threat of confounding bias in the observational studies. Additionally, in both the observational studies and immunoprophylaxis RCTs, there was high risk of bias due to missing outcome data.

Interpretation

Our findings, limited to exposure and immunoprophylaxis studies, do not support basing policy decisions on an assumption that prevention of RSV-LRTI will reduce recurrent chronic wheezing illnesses.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

SUBMITTER: Brunwasser SM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7464591 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundIndoor air pollution (IAP) and environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) are associated with lower respiratory tract illness (LRTI) or wheezing in children. However, the effect of the timing of these exposures, specifically antenatal versus postnatal, and of alternate fuel sources such as the increasingly used volatile organic compounds have not been well studied. We longitudinally investigated the effect of antenatal or postnatal IAP and ETS on LRTI or wheezing prevalence and severity in African infants.MethodsMother and infant pairs enrolled over a 3-year period in a birth cohort study in two centres in Paarl, South Africa, were followed for the first year of life for LRTI or wheezing illness. We measured exposure to IAP (particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide, sulphur dioxide, carbon monoxide, and volatile organic compounds benzene and toluene) using devices placed in homes, antenatally and postnatally. We measured ETS longitudinally by maternal self-report and by urine cotinine measures. Study staff trained in recognition of LRTI or wheeze documented all episodes, which were categorised according to WHO case definition criteria. We used multivariate logistic and Poisson regressions to explore associations.FindingsBetween March 1, 2012, and March 31, 2015, we enrolled 1137 mothers with 1143 livebirths. Of 1065 infants who attended at least one study visit, 524 episodes of LRTI occurred after discharge with a wheezing prevalence of 0·23 (95% CI 0·21-0·26) episodes per child year. Exposures associated with LRTI were antenatal maternal smoking (incidence rate ratio 1·62, 95% CI 1·14-2·30; p=0·004) or particulate matter (1·43, 1·06-1·95; p=0·008). Subanalyses of LRTI requiring hospitalisation (n=137) and supplemental oxygen (n=69) found antenatal toluene significantly increased the risk of LRTI-associated hospitalisation (odds ratio 5·13, 95% CI 1·43-18·36; p=0·012) and need for supplemental oxygen (13·21, 1·96-89·16; p=0·008). Wheezing illness was associated with both antenatal (incidence rate ratio 2·09, 95% CI 1·54-2·84; p<0·0001) and postnatal (1·27, 95% CI 1·03-1·56; p=0·024) maternal smoking. Antenatally, wheezing was associated with maternal passive smoke exposure (1·70, 1·25-2·31; p=0·001) and, postnatally, with any household member smoking (1·55, 1·17 -2·06; p=0·002).InterpretationAntenatal exposures were the predominant risk factors associated with LRTI or wheezing illness. Toluene was a novel exposure associated with severe LRTI. Urgent and effective interventions focusing on antenatal environmental factors are required, including smoking cessation programmes targeting women of childbearing age pre-conception and pregnant women.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Discovery Foundation, South African Thoracic Society AstraZeneca Respiratory Fellowship, Medical Research Council South Africa, National Research Foundation South Africa, and CIDRI Clinical Fellowship.