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Comparative Modeling of Tuberculosis Epidemiology and Policy Outcomes in California.

ABSTRACT: Rationale: Mathematical modeling is used to understand disease dynamics, forecast trends, and inform public health prioritization. We conducted a comparative analysis of tuberculosis (TB) epidemiology and potential intervention effects in California, using three previously developed epidemiologic models of TB.Objectives: To compare the influence of various modeling methods and assumptions on epidemiologic projections of domestic latent TB infection (LTBI) control interventions in California.Methods: We compared model results between 2005 and 2050 under a base-case scenario representing current TB services and alternative scenarios including: 1) sustained interruption of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission, 2) sustained resolution of LTBI and TB prior to entry of new residents, and 3) one-time targeted testing and treatment of LTBI among 25% of non-U.S.-born individuals residing in California.Measurements and Main Results: Model estimates of TB cases and deaths in California were in close agreement over the historical period but diverged for LTBI prevalence and new Mtb infections-outcomes for which definitive data are unavailable. Between 2018 and 2050, models projected average annual declines of 0.58-1.42% in TB cases, without additional interventions. A one-time LTBI testing and treatment intervention among non-U.S.-born residents was projected to produce sustained reductions in TB incidence. Models found prevalent Mtb infection and migration to be more significant drivers of future TB incidence than local transmission.Conclusions: All models projected a stagnation in the decline of TB incidence, highlighting the need for additional interventions including greater access to LTBI diagnosis and treatment for non-U.S.-born individuals. Differences in model results reflect gaps in historical data and uncertainty in the trends of key parameters, demonstrating the need for high-quality, up-to-date data on TB determinants and outcomes.

SUBMITTER: Menzies NA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7464931 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundTuberculosis (TB) still represents a major public health problem in Latin America, with low success and high default rates. Poor adherence represents a major threat for TB control and promotes emergence of drug-resistant TB. Expanding social protection programs could have a substantial effect on the global burden of TB; however, there is little evidence to evaluate the outcomes of socioeconomic support interventions. This study evaluated the effect of a conditional cash transfer (CCT) policy on treatment success and default rates in a prospective cohort of socioeconomically disadvantaged patients.Methods and findingsData were collected on adult patients with first diagnosis of pulmonary TB starting treatment in public healthcare facilities (HCFs) from 16 health departments with high TB burden in Buenos Aires who were followed until treatment completion or abandonment. The main exposure of interest was the registration to receive the CCT. Other covariates, such as sociodemographic and clinical variables and HCFs' characteristics usually associated with treatment adherence and outcomes, were also considered in the analysis. We used hierarchical models, propensity score (PS) matching, and inverse probability weighting (IPW) to estimate treatment effects, adjusting for individual and health system confounders. Of 941 patients with known CCT status, 377 registered for the program showed significantly higher success rates (82% versus 69%) and lower default rates (11% versus 20%). After controlling for individual and system characteristics and modality of treatment, odds ratio (OR) for success was 2.9 (95% CI 2, 4.3, P < 0.001) and default was 0.36 (95% CI 0.23, 0.57, P < 0.001). As this is an observational study evaluating an intervention not randomly assigned, there might be some unmeasured residual confounding. Although it is possible that a small number of patients was not registered into the program because they were deemed not eligible, the majority of patients fulfilled the requirements and were not registered because of different reasons. Since the information on the CCT was collected at the end of the study, we do not know the exact timing for when each patient was registered for the program.ConclusionsThe CCT appears to be a valuable health policy intervention to improve TB treatment outcomes. Incorporating these interventions as established policies may have a considerable effect on the control of TB in similar high-burden areas.

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Comparative Modeling of Tuberculosis Epidemiology and Policy Outcomes in California.

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