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COVID-19 pandemics modeling with modified determinist SEIR, social distancing, and age stratification. The effect of vertical confinement and release in Brazil.

ABSTRACT: The ongoing COVID-19 epidemics poses a particular challenge to low and middle income countries, making some of them consider the strategy of "vertical confinement". In this strategy, contact is reduced only to specific groups (e.g. age groups) that are at increased risk of severe disease following SARS-CoV-2 infection. We aim to assess the feasibility of this scenario as an exit strategy for the current lockdown in terms of its ability to keep the number of cases under the health care system capacity. We developed a modified SEIR model, including confinement, asymptomatic transmission, quarantine and hospitalization. The population is subdivided into 9 age groups, resulting in a system of 72 coupled nonlinear differential equations. The rate of transmission is dynamic and derived from the observed delayed fatality rate; the parameters of the epidemics are derived with a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. We used Brazil as an example of middle income country, but the results are easily generalizable to other countries considering a similar strategy. We find that starting from 60% horizontal confinement, an exit strategy on May 1st of confinement of individuals older than 60 years old and full release of the younger population results in 400 000 hospitalizations, 50 000 ICU cases, and 120 000 deaths in the 50-60 years old age group alone. Sensitivity analysis shows the 95% confidence interval brackets a order of magnitude in cases or three weeks in time. The health care system avoids collapse if the 50-60 years old are also confined, but our model assumes an idealized lockdown where the confined are perfectly insulated from contamination, so our numbers are a conservative lower bound. Our results discourage confinement by age as an exit strategy.

SUBMITTER: Lyra W

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7467267 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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COVID-19 pandemics modeling with modified determinist SEIR, social distancing, and age stratification. The effect of vertical confinement and release in Brazil.

Lyra Wladimir W do Nascimento José-Dias JD Belkhiria Jaber J de Almeida Leandro L Chrispim Pedro Paulo M PPM de Andrade Ion I

PloS one 20200902 9

The ongoing COVID-19 epidemics poses a particular challenge to low and middle income countries, making some of them consider the strategy of "vertical confinement". In this strategy, contact is reduced only to specific groups (e.g. age groups) that are at increased risk of severe disease following SARS-CoV-2 infection. We aim to assess the feasibility of this scenario as an exit strategy for the current lockdown in terms of its ability to keep the number of cases under the health care system cap ...[more]

PMID: 32877420

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Project description:BackgroundExposure to a diverse environmental microbiome is thought to play an important role in "educating" the immune system and facilitating competitive exclusion of pathogens to maintain human health. Vegetation and soil are key sources of airborne microbiota--the aerobiome. A limited number of studies have attempted to characterize the dynamics of near surface green space aerobiomes, and no studies to date have investigated these dynamics from a vertical perspective. Vertical stratification in the aerobiome could have important implications for public health and for the design, engineering, and management of urban green spaces.ObjectivesThe primary objectives of this study were to: a) assess whether significant vertical stratification in bacterial species richness and evenness (alpha diversity) of the aerobiome occurred in a parkland habitat in Adelaide, South Australia; b) assess whether significant compositional differences (beta diversity) between sampling heights occurred; and c) to preliminarily assess whether there were significant altitudinal differences in potentially pathogenic and beneficial bacterial taxa.MethodsWe combined an innovative columnar sampling method at soil level, 0.0, 0.5, 1.0, and 2.0m, using passive petri dish sampling to collect airborne bacteria. We used a geographic information system (GIS) to select study sites, and we used high-throughput sequencing of the bacterial 16S rRNA gene to assess whether significant vertical stratification of the aerobiome occurred.ResultsOur results provide evidence of vertical stratification in both alpha and beta (compositional) diversity of airborne bacterial communities, with diversity decreasing roughly with height. We also found significant vertical stratification in potentially pathogenic and beneficial bacterial taxa.DiscussionAlthough additional research is needed, our preliminary findings point to potentially different exposure attributes that may be contingent on human height and activity type. Our results lay the foundations for further research into the vertical characteristics of urban green space aerobiomes and their implications for public health and urban planning. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP7807.

Project description:In December 2019, the first confirmed case of pneumonia caused by a novel coronavirus was reported. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is currently spreading around the world. The relationships among the pandemic and its associated travel restrictions, social distancing measures, contact tracing, mask-wearing habits and medical consultation efficiency have not yet been extensively assessed. Based on the epidemic data reported by the Health Commission of Wenzhou, we analysed the developmental characteristics of the epidemic and modified the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model in three discrete ways. (1) According to the implemented preventive measures, the epidemic was divided into three stages: initial, outbreak and controlled. (2) We added many factors, such as health protections, travel restrictions and social distancing, close-contact tracing and the time from symptom onset to hospitalisation (TSOH), to the model. (3) Exposed and infected people were subdivided into isolated and free-moving populations. For the parameter estimation of the model, the average TSOH and daily cured cases, deaths and imported cases can be obtained through individual data from epidemiological investigations. The changes in daily contacts are simulated using the intracity travel intensity (ICTI) from the Baidu Migration Big Data platform. The optimal values of the remaining parameters are calculated by the grid search method. With this model, we calculated the sensitivity of the control measures with regard to the prevention of the spread of the epidemic by simulating the number of infected people in various hypothetical situations. Simultaneously, through a simulation of a second epidemic, the challenges from the rebound of the epidemic were analysed, and prevention and control recommendations were made. The results show that the modified SEIR model can effectively simulate the spread of COVID-19 in Wenzhou. The policy of the lockdown of Wuhan, the launch of the first-level Public Health Emergency Preparedness measures on 23 January 2020 and the implementation of resident travel control measures on 31 January 2020 were crucial to COVID-19 control.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Almost 1000 cases of American cutaneous leishmaniasis have been registered yearly in Rondônia State, Brazil. Little is known about the Leishmania transmission cycle (vectors and reservoirs) in the state. This study aimed to evaluate sand fly fauna from two vertical stratification layers in order to identify potential vectors and their blood-meal sources. METHODS:The study was conducted in Jamari National Forest. Sand flies were collected in the canopy (15 m) and at ground level (1 m) using HP light traps during four months, February, April, August and October, 2018. Insects were identified to the species level, and females were subjected to DNA extraction and PCR targeting minicircle kDNA and hsp70 (for Leishmania detection and species identification), and cytb (to identify blood-meal sources). Exploratory data analysis was used to determine mean of abundance and species richness between stratifications. The hsp70 and cytb sequences were analyzed and compared with sequences from GenBank. RESULTS:Overall, 68 species were identified from 15,457 individuals. On the Potosi trail, 7531 individuals of 49 species were collected; canopy captures totaled 6463 individuals of 46 species, while ground captures totaled 1068 individuals of 38 species. On the Santa Maria trail, 7926 individuals of 61 species were collected; canopy captures totaled 6136 individuals of 51 species, while ground captures totaled 1790 individuals of 53 species. A total of 23 pools were positive for kDNA (canopy n = 21, ground n = 2). Only two samples were sequenced for hsp70 (both in canopy); one sequence exhibited similarity with Leishmania braziliensis (Lutzomyia davisi pool) and another with L. naiffi (Lu. antunesi pool). The cytb fragment was amplified in 11 of 86 samples. Sample sequencing identified cytb DNA from 5 blood-meal sources: Micrastur gilvicollis, Psophia viridis, Tamandua tetradactyla, Homo sapiens and Choloepus didactylus. CONCLUSIONS:Sand fly fauna is more diverse in the canopy than at ground level. Factors such as blood-meal sources, resting sites, and abiotic components probably contribute to high abundance in the canopy. Our results reinforce the possibility that Lu. antunesi and Lu. davisi participate in Leishmania transmission in forest environments and may play an important role in transmission from sylvatic to human hosts.

Dataset Information

COVID-19 pandemics modeling with modified determinist SEIR, social distancing, and age stratification. The effect of vertical confinement and release in Brazil.

Publications

COVID-19 pandemics modeling with modified determinist SEIR, social distancing, and age stratification. The effect of vertical confinement and release in Brazil.

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