Dataset Information

Evaluating smoking control policies in the e-cigarette era: a modelling study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:In jurisdictions in which electronic cigarettes are currently prohibited, policy makers must weigh the potentially lower risk compared with conventional cigarettes against the risk of initiation of e-cigarettes among non-smokers. METHODS:We simulated a synthetic population over a 50-year time horizon with an open cohort model using data from Singapore, a country where e-cigarettes are currently prohibited, and data from the USA, the UK and Japan. Using the smoking prevalence and the quality-adjusted life year gained calculated, we compared tobacco control policies without e-cigarettes-namely, raising the minimum legal age (MLA), introducing a smoke-free generation (SFG) and tax rises on tobacco consumption-with policies legalising e-cigarettes, either taking a laissez-faire approach or under some form of restriction. We also evaluated combinations of these policies. RESULTS:Regardless of the country informing the transition probabilities to and from e-cigarette use in Singapore, a laissez-faire e-cigarette policy could reduce the smoking prevalence in the short term, but it is not as effective as other policies in the long term. The most effective single policies evaluated were SFG and aggressive tax rises; the most effective combination of policies considered was MLA plus moderate tax rises and e-cigarettes on prescription. CONCLUSION:Policy makers in jurisdictions in which e-cigarettes are not yet established may be advised not to prioritise e-cigarettes in their tobacco end-game strategy, unless their use can be restricted to current smokers seeking to quit.

SUBMITTER: Doan TTT

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7476271 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Evaluating smoking control policies in the e-cigarette era: a modelling study.

Doan Thi Thanh Tra TTT Tan Ken Wei KW Dickens Borame Sue Lee BSL Lean Yin Ai YA Yang Qianyu Q Cook Alex R AR

Tobacco control 20190904 5

<h4>Background</h4>In jurisdictions in which electronic cigarettes are currently prohibited, policy makers must weigh the potentially lower risk compared with conventional cigarettes against the risk of initiation of e-cigarettes among non-smokers.<h4>Methods</h4>We simulated a synthetic population over a 50-year time horizon with an open cohort model using data from Singapore, a country where e-cigarettes are currently prohibited, and data from the USA, the UK and Japan. Using the smoking preva ...[more]

PMID: 31484800

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Project description:IntroductionThis study compared tobacco use and cessation for African Americans (AA), Asians/Pacific Islanders (API), Hispanics/Latinos (H/L), American Indian/Alaskan Natives (AI/AN), and non-Hispanic Whites (NHW) in the United States to California (CA), the state with the longest continually funded tobacco control program. The purpose of this study was to identify tobacco use disparities across racial/ethnic groups across time.MethodsCigarette use prevalence (uptake and current use), consumption (mean number of cigarettes smoked per day [CPD]), and quit ratios were calculated across survey years, and trends were examined within each race/ethnic group and comparing between CA and the United States, utilizing the 1992-2019 Tobacco Use Supplements to the Current Population Survey.ResultsPrevalence decreased for all race/ethnic groups. Current use among CA NHW showed significant decline compared with US counterparts, whereas US H/L showed greater decline than CA counterparts. CPD decreased by approximately 30% across race/ethnic groups, with CA groups having lower numbers. The greatest decrease occurred among AA in CA (average 10.3 CPD [95% confidence interval (CI): 10.3, 12.6] in 1992/1993 to 3 CPD [95% CI: 2.4, 3.7] in 2018/2019). Quit ratios increased from 1992/1993 to 2018/2019 for CA H/L 52.4% (95% CI: 49.8, 53.0) to 59.3 (95% CI: 55.8, 62.5) and CA NHWs 61.5% (95% CI: 60.7, 61.9) to 63.8% (95% CI: 63.9, 66.9).ConclusionsAlthough overall prevalence decreased over time for each racial/ethnic group, declines in CA outpaced the United States only for NHWs. Reductions in CPD were encouraging but the quit ratio points to the need to increase tobacco control efforts toward cessation.ImplicationsThe successes in reduced cigarette use uptake and prevalence across time for both California and the rest of the United States were observed largely among non-Hispanic White populations. Although reductions in the number of cigarettes smoked per day are a notable success, particularly among the Californian African Americans, efforts to support quitting across racial/ethnic groups, especially marginalized groups, need to be prioritized.

Project description:BackgroundMeasles is among the most highly infectious human diseases. By virtue of increasingly effective childhood vaccination, together with targeted supplemental immunization activities (SIAs), health authorities in the People's Republic of China have reduced measles' reproduction number from about 18 to 2.3. Despite substantial residual susceptibility among young adults, more in some locales than others, sustained routine childhood immunization likely would eliminate measles eventually. To support global eradication efforts, as well as expedite morbidity and mortality reductions in China, we evaluated alternative SIAs via mechanistic mathematical modelling.MethodsOur model Chinese population is stratified by immune status (susceptible to measles infection; infected, but not yet infectious; infectious; and recovered or immunized), age (0, 1-4, 5-9, …, 65+ years) and location (31 provinces). Contacts between sub-populations are either empirical or a mixture of preferential and proportionate with respect to age and decline exponentially with distance between locations at age-dependent rates. We estimated initial conditions and most parameters from recent cross-sectional serological surveys, disease surveillance and demographic observations. Then we calculated the reproduction numbers and gradient of the effective number with respect to age- and location-specific immunization rates. We corroborated these analytical results by simulating adolescent and young adult SIAs using a version of our model in which the age-specific contact rates vary seasonally.ResultsWhereas the gradient indicates that vaccinating young adults generally is the optimal strategy, simulations indicate that a catch-up campaign among susceptible adolescent schoolchildren would accelerate elimination, with timing dependent on uptake.ConclusionsThese results are largely due to indirect effects (i.e. fewer infections than immunized people might otherwise cause), which meta-population models with realistic mixing are uniquely capable of reproducing accurately.

Project description:Schizophrenic patients have higher smoking rates than the general population. Studies show that smoking may be a form of self-medication in an attempt to alleviate cognitive deficits in schizophrenic patients of European background. This study examined the relationships between smoking and cognitive deficits in Chinese schizophrenic patients, which have previously received little systemic study. We recruited 580 male chronic patients meeting DSM-IV criteria for schizophrenia and 175 male control subjects who were matched on age and education. The subjects completed a detailed cigarette smoking questionnaire, the Fagerstrom Test for Nicotine Dependence (FTND), and the Repeatable Battery for the Assessment of Neuropsychological Status (RBANS). Patients also were rated on the Positive and Negative Symptom Scale (PANSS), the Simpson and Angus Extrapyramidal Symptom Rating Scale (SAES), and the Abnormal Involuntary Movement Scale (AIMS). All five RBANS subscales except for the Visuospatial/Constructional index showed significantly lower cognitive performance for schizophrenics than normal controls. The schizophrenic smokers scored lower than the schizophrenic non-smokers on the RBANS total score and the Visuospatial/Constructional and Immediate Memory indices. Similarly, the control smokers scored lower than the control non-smokers on the RBANS total score and the Immediate Memory index . Also, the schizophrenic smokers consistently performed the poorest on the cognitive domains of the RBANS. Among the schizophrenic patients, smokers displayed significantly fewer negative symptoms than non-smokers. Using multivariate regression analysis the following variables were independently associated with the RBANS total score: years of education, PANSS negative symptom score, age at schizophrenia onset, and number of hospitalizations. Our results show that smoking is associated with significant cognitive impairment in both schizophrenic patients and normal controls, but the smokers with schizophrenia had a reduced level of negative symptoms, suggesting that the benefits of smoking for those with schizophrenia may be limited to certain aspects of a given clinical phenotype.

Project description:ImportanceTobacco smoking is still responsible for more than 6 million preventable deaths annually, most of which occur in low- and middle-income countries. South American countries, Chile in particular, endure some of the highest cigarette smoking prevalence rates globally. Despite the lack of any meaningful increases in cigarette taxes (the most effective tobacco control measure) between 1999 and 2014, cigarette prices in Chile increased sharply almost entirely driven by British American Tobacco (BAT).ObjectiveTo examine the associations between cigarette prices and nonprice tobacco control policies targeted at youth introduced in 2006 (Law 20105) and smoking onset among Chilean youths.Design, setting, and participantsThis study used data from 8 waves of a large national school survey of urban communities in Chile conducted between October and December in 2001, 2003, 2015, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2013, and 2015 and discrete-time hazard models. Data analysis was performed from May 2017 to January 2019.ExposuresPrices, advertising, and retail restrictions.Main outcomes and measuresSmoking onset (the transition between never smoking and smoking) in youth.ResultsIn this study of 181 624 survey respondents in 8751 Chilean secondary schools, higher prices (own-price elasticity [percentage change in quantity demanded in response to a 1% change in price], -0.40; 95% CI, -0.45 to -0.36) and the tobacco control policies enacted in 2006 (hazard ratio, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.81-0.85) were associated with lower hazards of starting smoking. The study found that an increase in real prices of 58.6% and the introduction of Law 20105 were associated with similar lower hazards of starting smoking (hazard ratio, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.81-0.85); in comparison, between 1999 and 2017, inflation-adjusted cigarette prices increased by 206%.Conclusions and relevanceThe findings suggest that higher prices initiated by BAT and the tobacco control policies enacted by the Ministry of Health in 2006 were associated with lower hazards of starting smoking in Chilean youth. Large cigarette tax increases may be a strategy that can be used to help reduce smoking among youths in Chile.

Project description:IntroductionUK countries implemented smoke-free public places legislation and increased the legal age for tobacco purchase from 16 to 18 years between 2006 and 2008. We evaluated the immediate and long-term impacts of these UK policy changes on youth smoking uptake and inequalities therein.Aims and methodsWe studied 74 960 person-years of longitudinal data from 14 992 youths (aged 11-15 years) in annual UK household surveys between 1994 and 2016. Discrete-time event history analyses examined whether changes in rates of youth smoking transitions (initiation, experimentation, and escalation to daily smoking or quitting) or their inequalities (by parental education) were associated with policy implementation. Parallel analyses examined smoke-free legislation and the change in legal age. We interpret the results as a combined effect of the two pieces of legislation as their implementation dates were too close to identify separate effects. Models were adjusted for sex, age, UK country, historical year, tobacco taxation, and e-cigarette prevalence, with multiple imputation for missing data.ResultsFor both policies, smoking initiation reduced following implementation (change in legal age odds ratio [OR]: 0.67; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.55 to 0.81; smoke-free legislation OR: 0.68; 95% CI: 0.56 to 0.82), while inequalities in initiation narrowed over subsequent years. The legal age change was associated with annual increases in progression from initiation to occasional smoking (OR: 1.26; 95% CI: 1.07 to 1.50) and a reduction in quitting following implementation (OR: 0.57; 95% CI: 0.35 to 0.94). Similar effects were observed for smoke-free legislation but CIs overlapped the null.ConclusionsPolicies such as these may be highly effective in preventing and reducing socioeconomic inequalities in youth smoking initiation.ImplicationsUK implementation of smoke-free legislation and an increase in the legal age for tobacco purchase from 16 to 18 years were associated with an immediate reduction in smoking initiation and a narrowing of inequalities in initiation over subsequent years. While the policies were associated with reductions in the initiation, progression to occasional smoking increased and quitting decreased following the legislation.

Dataset Information

Evaluating smoking control policies in the e-cigarette era: a modelling study.

Publications

Evaluating smoking control policies in the e-cigarette era: a modelling study.

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