Development of a probabilistic early health warning system based on meteorological parameters.

ABSTRACT: Among the other diseases, malaria and diarrhoea have a large disease burden in India, especially among children. Changes in rainfall and temperature patterns likely play a major role in the increased incidence of these diseases across geographical locations. This study proposes a method for probabilistic forecasting of the disease incidences in extended range time scale (2-3 weeks in advance) over India based on an unsupervised pattern recognition technique that uses meteorological parameters as inputs and which can be applied to any geographical location over India. To verify the robustness of this newly developed early warning system, detailed analysis has been made in the incidence of malaria and diarrhoea over two districts of the State of Maharashtra. It is found that the increased pr

SUBMITTER: Sahai AK 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7479102 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature