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A less cloudy picture of the inter-model spread in future global warming projections.

ABSTRACT: Model warming projections, forced by increasing greenhouse gases, have a large inter-model spread in both their geographical warming patterns and global mean values. The inter-model warming pattern spread (WPS) limits our ability to foresee the severity of regional impacts on nature and society. This paper focuses on uncovering the feedbacks responsible for the WPS. Here, we identify two dominant WPS modes whose global mean values also explain 98.7% of the global warming spread (GWS). We show that the ice-albedo feedback spread explains uncertainties in polar regions while the water vapor feedback spread explains uncertainties elsewhere. Other processes, including the cloud feedback, contribute less to the WPS as their spreads tend to cancel each other out in a model-dependent manner. Our findings suggest that the WPS and GWS could be significantly reduced by narrowing the inter-model spreads of ice-albedo and water vapor feedbacks, and better understanding the spatial coupling between feedbacks.

SUBMITTER: Hu X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7479110 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A less cloudy picture of the inter-model spread in future global warming projections.

Hu Xiaoming X Fan Hanjie H Cai Ming M Sejas Sergio A SA Taylor Patrick P Yang Song S

Nature communications 20200908 1

Model warming projections, forced by increasing greenhouse gases, have a large inter-model spread in both their geographical warming patterns and global mean values. The inter-model warming pattern spread (WPS) limits our ability to foresee the severity of regional impacts on nature and society. This paper focuses on uncovering the feedbacks responsible for the WPS. Here, we identify two dominant WPS modes whose global mean values also explain 98.7% of the global warming spread (GWS). We show th ...[more]

PMID: 32901026

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Project description:Global climate change results in more extreme temperature events, which poses a serious threat to wheat production in the North China Plain (NCP). Assessing the potential impact of temperature extremes on crop growth and yield is an important prerequisite for exploring crop adaptation measures to deal with changing climate. In this study, we evaluated the effects of heat and frost stress during wheat sensitive period on grain yield at four representative sites over the NCP using Agricultural Production System Simulator (APSIM)-wheat model driven by the climate projections from 20 Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) during two future periods of 2031-2060 (2040S) and 2071-2100 (2080S) under societal development pathway (SSP) 245 and SSP585 scenarios. We found that extreme temperature stress had significantly negative impacts on wheat yield. However, increased rainfall and the elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration could partly compensate for the yield loss caused by extreme temperature events. Under future climate scenarios, the risk of exposure to heat stress around flowering had no great change but frost risk in spring increased slightly mainly due to warming climate accelerating wheat development and advancing the flowering time to a cooler period of growing season. Wheat yield loss caused by heat and frost stress increased by -0.6 to 4.2 and 1.9-12.8% under SSP585_2080S, respectively. We also found that late sowing and selecting cultivars with a long vegetative growth phase (VGP) could significantly compensate for the negative impact of extreme temperature on wheat yields in the south of NCP. However, selecting heat resistant cultivars in the north NCP and both heat and frost resistant cultivars in the central NCP may be a more effective way to alleviate the negative effect of extreme temperature on wheat yields. Our findings showed that not only heat risk should be concerned under climate warming, but also frost risk should not be ignored.

Dataset Information

A less cloudy picture of the inter-model spread in future global warming projections.

Publications

A less cloudy picture of the inter-model spread in future global warming projections.

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