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In silico dynamics of COVID-19 phenotypes for optimizing clinical management.

ABSTRACT: Understanding the underlying mechanisms of COVID-19 progression and the impact of various pharmaceutical interventions is crucial for the clinical management of the disease. We developed a comprehensive mathematical framework based on the known mechanisms of the SARS-CoV-2 virus infection, incorporating the renin-angiotensin system and ACE2, which the virus exploits for cellular entry, key elements of the innate and adaptive immune responses, the role of inflammatory cytokines and the coagulation cascade for thrombus formation. The model predicts the evolution of viral load, immune cells, cytokines, thrombosis, and oxygen saturation based on patient baseline condition and the presence of co-morbidities. Model predictions were validated with clinical data from healthy people and COVID-19 patients, and the results were used to gain insight into identified risk factors of disease progression including older age, co-morbidities such as obesity, diabetes, and hypertension, and dysregulated immune response ^1,2 . We then simulated treatment with various drug classes to identify optimal therapeutic protocols. We found that the outcome of any treatment depends on the sustained response rate of activated CD8 ⁺ T cells and sufficient control of the innate immune response. Furthermore, the best treatment -or combination of treatments - depends on the pre-infection health status of the patient. Our mathematical framework provides important insight into SARS-CoV-2 pathogenesis and could be used as the basis for personalized, optimal management of COVID-19.

SUBMITTER: Voutouri C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7480033 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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In silico dynamics of COVID-19 phenotypes for optimizing clinical management.

Voutouri Chrysovalantis C Nikmaneshi Mohammad Reza MR Hardin C Corey CC Patel Ankit B AB Verma Ashish A Khandekar Melin J MJ Dutta Sayon S Stylianopoulos Triantafyllos T Munn Lance L LL Jain Rakesh K RK

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Understanding the underlying mechanisms of COVID-19 progression and the impact of various pharmaceutical interventions is crucial for the clinical management of the disease. We developed a comprehensive mathematical framework based on the known mechanisms of the SARS-CoV-2 virus infection, incorporating the renin-angiotensin system and ACE2, which the virus exploits for cellular entry, key elements of the innate and adaptive immune responses, the role of inflammatory cytokines and the coagulatio ...[more]

PMID: 32908974

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Project description:The Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by the virus SARS-CoV-2 has become a global pandemic in a very short time span. Currently, there is no specific treatment or vaccine to counter this highly contagious disease. There is an urgent need to find a specific cure for the disease and global efforts are directed at developing SARS-CoV-2 specific antivirals and immunomodulators. Ayurvedic Rasayana therapy has been traditionally used in India for its immunomodulatory and adaptogenic effects, and more recently has been included as therapeutic adjuvant for several maladies. Amongst several others, Withania somnifera (Ashwagandha), Tinospora cordifolia (Guduchi) and Asparagus racemosus (Shatavari) play an important role in Rasayana therapy. The objective of this study was to explore the immunomodulatory and anti SARS-CoV2 potential of phytoconstituents from Ashwagandha, Guduchi and Shatavari using network pharmacology and docking. The plant extracts were prepared as per ayurvedic procedures and a total of 31 phytoconstituents were identified using UHPLC-PDA and mass spectrometry studies. To assess the immunomodulatory potential of these phytoconstituents an in-silico network pharmacology model was constructed. The model predicts that the phytoconstituents possess the potential to modulate several targets in immune pathways potentially providing a protective role. To explore if these phytoconstituents also possess antiviral activity, docking was performed with the Spike protein, Main Protease and RNA dependent RNA polymerase of the virus. Interestingly, several phytoconstituents are predicted to possess good affinity for the three targets, suggesting their application for the termination of viral life cycle. Further, predictive tools indicate that there would not be adverse herb-drug pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic interactions with concomitantly administered drug therapy. We thus make a compelling case to evaluate the potential of these Rasayana botanicals as therapeutic adjuvants in the management of COVID-19 following rigorous experimental validation.

Project description:BackgroundMultiple clinical phenotypes have been proposed for coronavirus disease (COVID-19), but few have used multimodal data. Using clinical and imaging data, we aimed to identify distinct clinical phenotypes in patients admitted with COVID-19 and to assess their clinical outcomes. Our secondary objective was to demonstrate the clinical applicability of this method by developing an interpretable model for phenotype assignment.MethodsWe analyzed data from 547 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 at a Canadian academic hospital. We processed the data by applying a factor analysis of mixed data (FAMD) and compared four clustering algorithms: k-means, partitioning around medoids (PAM), and divisive and agglomerative hierarchical clustering. We used imaging data and 34 clinical variables collected within the first 24 h of admission to train our algorithm. We conducted a survival analysis to compare the clinical outcomes across phenotypes. With the data split into training and validation sets (75/25 ratio), we developed a decision-tree-based model to facilitate the interpretation and assignment of the observed phenotypes.ResultsAgglomerative hierarchical clustering was the most robust algorithm. We identified three clinical phenotypes: 79 patients (14%) in Cluster 1, 275 patients (50%) in Cluster 2, and 203 (37%) in Cluster 3. Cluster 2 and Cluster 3 were both characterized by a low-risk respiratory and inflammatory profile but differed in terms of demographics. Compared with Cluster 3, Cluster 2 comprised older patients with more comorbidities. Cluster 1 represented the group with the most severe clinical presentation, as inferred by the highest rate of hypoxemia and the highest radiological burden. Intensive care unit (ICU) admission and mechanical ventilation risks were the highest in Cluster 1. Using only two to four decision rules, the classification and regression tree (CART) phenotype assignment model achieved an AUC of 84% (81.5-86.5%, 95 CI) on the validation set.ConclusionsWe conducted a multidimensional phenotypic analysis of adult inpatients with COVID-19 and identified three distinct phenotypes associated with different clinical outcomes. We also demonstrated the clinical usability of this approach, as phenotypes can be accurately assigned using a simple decision tree. Further research is still needed to properly incorporate these phenotypes in the management of patients with COVID-19.

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In silico dynamics of COVID-19 phenotypes for optimizing clinical management.

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In silico dynamics of COVID-19 phenotypes for optimizing clinical management.

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