Dataset Information

Predicting intensive care unit admission and death for COVID-19 patients in the emergency department using early warning scores.

ABSTRACT:

Aims

To identify the most accurate early warning score (EWS) for predicting an adverse outcome in COVID-19 patients admitted to the emergency department (ED).

Methods

In adult consecutive patients admitted (March 1-April 15, 2020) to the ED of a major referral centre for COVID-19, we retrospectively calculated NEWS, NEWS2, NEWS-C, MEWS, qSOFA, and REMS from physiological variables measured on arrival. Sensitivity, specificity, positive (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV), and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve of each EWS for predicting admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) and death at 48?h and 7 days were calculated.

Results

We included 334 patients (119 [35.6%] females, median age 66 [54-78] years). At 7 days, the rates of ICU admission and death were 56/334 (17%) and 26/334 (7.8%), respectively. NEWS was the most accurate predictor of ICU admission within 7 days (AUROC 0.783 [95% CI, 0.735-0.826]; sensitivity 71.4 [57.8-82.7]%; NPV 93.1 [89.8-95.3]%), while REMS was the most accurate predictor of death within 7 days (AUROC 0.823 [0.778-0.863]; sensitivity 96.1 [80.4-99.9]%; NPV 99.4[96.2-99.9]%). Similar results were observed for ICU admission and death at 48?h. NEWS and REMS were as accurate as the triage system used in our ED. MEWS and qSOFA had the lowest overall accuracy for both outcomes.

Conclusion

In our single-centre cohort of COVID-19 patients, NEWS and REMS measured on ED arrival were the most sensitive predictors of 7-day ICU admission or death. EWS could be useful to identify patients with low risk of clinical deterioration.

SUBMITTER: Covino M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7480278 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Predicting intensive care unit admission and death for COVID-19 patients in the emergency department using early warning scores.

Covino Marcello M Sandroni Claudio C Santoro Michele M Sabia Luca L Simeoni Benedetta B Bocci Maria Grazia MG Ojetti Veronica V Candelli Marcello M Antonelli Massimo M Gasbarrini Antonio A Gasbarrini Antonio A Franceschi Francesco F

Resuscitation 20200909

<h4>Aims</h4>To identify the most accurate early warning score (EWS) for predicting an adverse outcome in COVID-19 patients admitted to the emergency department (ED).<h4>Methods</h4>In adult consecutive patients admitted (March 1-April 15, 2020) to the ED of a major referral centre for COVID-19, we retrospectively calculated NEWS, NEWS2, NEWS-C, MEWS, qSOFA, and REMS from physiological variables measured on arrival. Sensitivity, specificity, positive (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV), an ...[more]

PMID: 32918985

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Project description:INTRODUCTION:Syncope is common among emergency department (ED) patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) and indicates a higher acuity and worse prognosis than in patients without syncope. Whether presyncope carries the same prognostic implications has not been established. We compared incidence of intensive care unit (ICU) admission in three groups of ED PE patients: those with presyncope; syncope; and neither. METHODS:This retrospective cohort study included all adults with acute, objectively confirmed PE in 21 community EDs from January 2013-April 2015. We combined electronic health record extraction with manual chart abstraction. We used chi-square test for univariate comparisons and performed multivariate analysis to evaluate associations between presyncope or syncope and ICU admission from the ED, reported as adjusted odds ratios (aOR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS:Among 2996 PE patients, 82 (2.7%) had presyncope and 109 (3.6%) had syncope. ICU admission was similar between groups (presyncope 18.3% vs syncope 25.7%) and different than their non-syncope counterparts (either 22.5% vs neither 4.7%; p<0.0001). On multivariate analysis, both presyncope and syncope were independently associated with ICU admission, controlling for demographics, higher-risk PE Severity Index (PESI) class, ventilatory support, proximal clot location, and submassive and massive PE classification: presyncope, aOR 2.79 (95% CI, 1.40, 5.56); syncope, aOR 4.44 (95% CI 2.52, 7.80). These associations were only minimally affected when excluding massive PE from the model. There was no significant interaction between either syncope or presyncope and PESI, submassive or massive classification in predicting ICU admission. CONCLUSION:Presyncope appears to carry similar strength of association with ICU admission as syncope in ED patients with acute PE. If this is confirmed, clinicians evaluating patients with acute PE may benefit from including presyncope in their calculus of risk assessment and site-of-care decision-making.

Project description:ImportanceIncreased patient acuity, decreased intensive care unit (ICU) bed availability, and a shortage of intensivist physicians have led to strained ICU capacity. The resulting increase in emergency department (ED) boarding time for patients requiring ICU-level care has been associated with worse outcomes.ObjectiveTo determine the association of a novel ED-based ICU, the Emergency Critical Care Center (EC3), with 30-day mortality and inpatient ICU admission.Design, setting, and participantsThis retrospective cohort study used electronic health records of all ED visits between September 1, 2012, and July 31, 2017, with a documented clinician encounter at a large academic medical center in the United States with approximately 75 000 adult ED visits per year. The pre-EC3 cohort included ED patients from September 2, 2012, to February 15, 2015, when the EC3 opened, and the post-EC3 cohort included ED patients from February 16, 2015, to July 31, 2017. Data analyses were conducted from March 2, 2018, to May 28, 2019.ExposuresImplementation of EC3, an ED-based ICU designed to provide rapid initiation of ICU-level care in the ED setting and seamless transition to inpatient ICUs.Main outcomes and measuresThe main outcomes were 30-day mortality among ED patients and rate of ED to ICU admission.ResultsA total of 349 310 visits from a consecutive sample of ED patients (mean [SD] age, 48.5 [19.7] years; 189 709 [54.3%] women) were examined; the pre-EC3 cohort included 168 877 visits and the post-EC3 cohort included 180 433 visits. Implementation of EC3 was associated with a statistically significant reduction in risk-adjusted 30-day mortality among all ED patients (pre-EC3, 2.13%; post-EC3, 1.83%; adjusted odds ratio, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.80-0.90; number needed to treat, 333 patient encounters; 95% CI, 256-476). The risk-adjusted rate of ED admission to ICU decreased with implementation of EC3 (pre-EC3, 3.2%; post-EC3, 2.7%; adjusted odds ratio, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.76-0.83; number needed to treat, 179 patient encounters; 95% CI, 149-217).Conclusions and relevanceImplementation of a novel ED-based ICU was associated with improved 30-day survival and reduced inpatient ICU admission. Additional research is warranted to further explore the value of this novel care delivery model in various health care systems.

Dataset Information

Predicting intensive care unit admission and death for COVID-19 patients in the emergency department using early warning scores.

Aims

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Predicting intensive care unit admission and death for COVID-19 patients in the emergency department using early warning scores.

Similar Datasets

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