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Making waves: Wastewater-based epidemiology for COVID-19 - approaches and challenges for surveillance and prediction.

ABSTRACT: The presence of SARS-CoV-2 in the feces of infected patients and wastewater has drawn attention, not only to the possibility of fecal-oral transmission but also to the use of wastewater as an epidemiological tool. The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted problems in evaluating the epidemiological scope of the disease using classical surveillance approaches, due to a lack of diagnostic capacity, and their application to only a small proportion of the population. As in previous pandemics, statistics, particularly the proportion of the population infected, are believed to be widely underestimated. Furthermore, analysis of only clinical samples cannot predict outbreaks in a timely manner or easily capture asymptomatic carriers. Threfore, community-scale surveillance, including wastewater-based epidemiology, can bridge the broader community and the clinic, becoming a valuable indirect epidemiological prediction tool for SARS-CoV-2 and other pandemic viruses. This article summarizes current knowledge and discusses the critical factors for implementing wastewater-based epidemiology of COVID-19.

SUBMITTER: Polo D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7480445 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Making waves: Wastewater-based epidemiology for COVID-19 - approaches and challenges for surveillance and prediction.

Polo David D Quintela-Baluja Marcos M Corbishley Alexander A Jones Davey L DL Singer Andrew C AC Graham David W DW Romalde Jesús L JL

Water research 20200909

The presence of SARS-CoV-2 in the feces of infected patients and wastewater has drawn attention, not only to the possibility of fecal-oral transmission but also to the use of wastewater as an epidemiological tool. The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted problems in evaluating the epidemiological scope of the disease using classical surveillance approaches, due to a lack of diagnostic capacity, and their application to only a small proportion of the population. As in previous pandemics, statistics, ...[more]

PMID: 32942178

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Project description:With the economic and practical limits of medical screening for SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 coming sharply into focus worldwide, scientists are turning now to wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) as a potential tool for assessing and managing the pandemic. We employed computational analysis and modeling to examine the feasibility, economy, opportunities and challenges of enumerating active coronavirus infections locally and globally using WBE. Depending on local conditions, detection in community wastewater of one symptomatic/asymptomatic infected case per 100 to 2,000,000 non-infected people is theoretically feasible, with some practical successes now being reported from around the world. Computer simulations for past, present and emerging epidemic hotspots (e.g., Wuhan, Milan, Madrid, New York City, Teheran, Seattle, Detroit and New Orleans) identified temperature, average in-sewer travel time and per-capita water use as key variables. WBE surveillance of populations is shown to be orders of magnitude cheaper and faster than clinical screening, yet cannot fully replace it. Cost savings worldwide for one-time national surveillance campaigns are estimated to be in the million to billion US dollar range (US$), depending on a nation's population size and number of testing rounds conducted. For resource poor regions and nations, WBE may represent the only viable means of effective surveillance. Important limitations of WBE rest with its inability to identify individuals and to pinpoint their specific locations. Not compensating for temperature effects renders WBE data vulnerable to severe under-/over-estimation of infected cases. Effective surveillance may be envisioned as a two-step process in which WBE serves to identify and enumerate infected cases, where after clinical testing then serves to identify infected individuals in WBE-revealed hotspots. Data provided here demonstrate this approach to save money, be broadly applicable worldwide, and potentially aid in precision management of the pandemic, thereby helping to accelerate the global economic recovery that billions of people rely upon for their livelihoods.

Project description:BackgroundWastewater-based epidemiology provides an opportunity for near real-time, cost-effective monitoring of community-level transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater can identify the presence of COVID-19 in the community, but methods for estimating the numbers of infected individuals on the basis of wastewater RNA concentrations are inadequate.MethodsThis is a wastewater-based epidemiology study using wastewater samples that were collected weekly or twice a week from three sewersheds in South Carolina, USA, between either May 27 or June 16, 2020, and Aug 25, 2020, and tested for SARS-CoV-2 RNA. We developed a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model based on the mass rate of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in the wastewater to predict the number of infected individuals, and have also provided a simplified equation to predict this. Model predictions were compared with the number of confirmed cases identified by the Department of Health and Environmental Control, South Carolina, USA, for the same time period and geographical area.FindingsWe plotted the model predictions for the relationship between mass rate of virus release and numbers of infected individuals, and we validated this prediction on the basis of estimated prevalence from individual testing. A simplified equation to estimate the number of infected individuals fell within the 95% confidence limits of the model. The rate of unreported COVID-19 cases, as estimated by the model, was approximately 11 times that of confirmed cases (ie, ratio of estimated infections for every confirmed case of 10·9, 95% CI 4·2-17·5). This rate aligned well with an independent estimate of 15 infections for every confirmed case in the US state of South Carolina.InterpretationThe SEIR model provides a robust method to estimate the total number of infected individuals in a sewershed on the basis of the mass rate of RNA copies released per day. This approach overcomes some of the limitations associated with individual testing campaigns and thereby provides an additional tool that can be used to inform policy decisions.FundingClemson University, USA.

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Making waves: Wastewater-based epidemiology for COVID-19 - approaches and challenges for surveillance and prediction.

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Making waves: Wastewater-based epidemiology for COVID-19 - approaches and challenges for surveillance and prediction.

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