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Evaluation of strategies using simulation model to control a potential outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza among poultry farms in Central Luzon, Philippines.

ABSTRACT: The Philippines confirmed its first epidemic of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) on August 11, 2017. It ended in November of 2017. Despite the successful management of the epidemic, reemergence is a continuous threat. The aim of this study was to conduct a mathematical model to assess the spatial transmission of HPAI among poultry farms in Central Luzon. Different control strategies and the current government protocol of 1 km radius pre-emptive culling (PEC) from infected farms were evaluated. The alternative strategies include 0.5km PEC, 1.5km PEC, 2 km PEC, 2.5 km PEC, and 3 km PEC, no pre-emptive culling (NPEC). The NPEC scenario was further modeled with a time of government notification set at 24hours, 48 hours, and 72 hours after the detection. Disease spread scenarios under each strategy were generated using an SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed) stochastic model. A spatial transmission kernel was calculated and used to represent all potential routes of infection between farms. We assumed that the latent period occurs between 1-2 days, disease detection at 5-7 days post-infection, notification of authorities at 5-7 days post-detection and start of culling at 1-3 days post notification. The epidemic scenarios were compared based on the number of infected farms, the total number of culled farms, and the duration of the epidemic. Our results revealed that the current protocol is the most appropriate option compared with the other alternative interventions considered among farms with reproductive ratio (Ri) > 1. Shortening the culling radius to 0.5 km increased the duration of the epidemic. Further increase in the PEC zone decreased the duration of the epidemic but may not justify the increased number of farms to be culled. Nonetheless, the no-pre-emptive culling (NPEC) strategy can be an effective alternative to the current protocol if farm managers inform the government immediately within 24 hours of observation of the presence of HPAI in their farms. Moreover, if notification is made on days 1-3 after the detection, the scale and length of the outbreak have been significantly reduced. In conclusion, this study provided a comparison of various control measures for confronting the spread of HPAI infection using the simulation model. Policy makers can use this information to enhance the effectiveness of the current control strategy.

SUBMITTER: Salvador R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7482972 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Evaluation of strategies using simulation model to control a potential outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza among poultry farms in Central Luzon, Philippines.

Salvador Roderick R Tanquilut Neil N Macmac Rosemarie R Na Lampang Kannika K Chaisowwong Warangkhana W Pfeiffer Dirk D Punyapornwithaya Veerasak V

PloS one 20200910 9

The Philippines confirmed its first epidemic of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) on August 11, 2017. It ended in November of 2017. Despite the successful management of the epidemic, reemergence is a continuous threat. The aim of this study was to conduct a mathematical model to assess the spatial transmission of HPAI among poultry farms in Central Luzon. Different control strategies and the current government protocol of 1 km radius pre-emptive culling (PEC) from infected farms were eval ...[more]

PMID: 32913363

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Project description:BackgroundThe Philippines is one of the major endemic countries for canine rabies in Southeast Asia. However, detailed description and analysis of laboratory-confirmed animal rabies are limited. Highly accurate surveillance requires a thorough understanding of the target area-specific problems and obstacles. Therefore, we aim to describe and analyze the rabies suspect animals in Central Luzon, Philippines, to clarify the characteristics of management and clinical signs by conducting interviews with the owners.MethodsWe prospectively collected information on the rabies suspect animals submitted to the Regional animal laboratory in Central Luzon through passive laboratory-based rabies surveillance between 1st April 2019 and 30th September 2020. We performed active interviews directly or telephonically with the owner. The direct fluorescent antibody test was performed on the hippocampus, brain stem, and cerebellum for laboratory confirmation. Descriptive statistics were used to characterize the number of rabies cases according to management methods and characteristics of suspected animals during the observation period. Clinical symptoms of suspected rabid animals were analyzed by univariate logistic regression analysis.ResultsThere were 292 sample submissions during the study period. Of these, 160 were positive for dFAT. Samples of pet animals (85.3%) provided by owners or their acquaintances (59.2%) accounted for the majority of laboratory confirmed cases. Case mapping showed that more rabies-suspected cases were sent from areas near the regional laboratory than from those far from the laboratory, despite the incidence of rabies being high in these areas. The management and clinical symptoms of 227 animal cases showed that most owners were managing their animals at home and were allowing them to roam outside (69.6%) and be unvaccinated (78.9%). Rabid animals were more likely to manifest aimless running, restlessness, and agitation.ConclusionsOur study provided some features of animals with laboratory-confirmed rabies in Central Luzon. However, most of the samples were submitted from areas near the rabies diagnosis laboratory, and the number of samples submitted from remote areas was low. To improve the surveillance capacity, it is necessary to increase sample submissions from remote areas.

Project description:Several vaccines have been developed against highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), mostly inactivated whole-virus vaccines for chickens. In the EU, one vaccine is authorised in chickens but is not fully efficacious to stop transmission, highlighting the need for vaccines tailored to diverse poultry species and production types. Off-label use of vaccines is possible, but effectiveness varies. Vaccines are usually injectable, a time-consuming process. Mass-application vaccines outside hatcheries remain rare. First vaccination varies from in-ovo to 6 weeks of age. Data about immunity onset and duration in the target species are often unavailable, despite being key for effective planning. Minimising antigenic distance between vaccines and field strains is essential, requiring rapid updates of vaccines to match circulating strains. Generating harmonised vaccine efficacy data showing vaccine ability to reduce transmission is crucial and this ability should be also assessed in field trials. Planning vaccination requires selecting the most adequate vaccine type and vaccination scheme. Emergency protective vaccination is limited to vaccines that are not restricted by species, age or pre-existing vector-immunity, while preventive vaccination should prioritise achieving the highest protection, especially for the most susceptible species in high-risk transmission areas. Model simulations in France, Italy and The Netherlands revealed that (i) duck and turkey farms are more infectious than chickens, (ii) depopulating infected farms only showed limitations in controlling disease spread, while 1-km ring-culling performed better than or similar to emergency preventive ring-vaccination scenarios, although with the highest number of depopulated farms, (iii) preventive vaccination of the most susceptible species in high-risk transmission areas was the best option to minimise the outbreaks' number and duration, (iv) during outbreaks in such areas, emergency protective vaccination in a 3-km radius was more effective than 1- and 10-km radius. Vaccine efficacy should be monitored and complement other surveillance and preventive efforts.

Dataset Information

Evaluation of strategies using simulation model to control a potential outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza among poultry farms in Central Luzon, Philippines.

Publications

Evaluation of strategies using simulation model to control a potential outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza among poultry farms in Central Luzon, Philippines.

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