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The future of endangered crayfish in light of protected areas and habitat fragmentation

ABSTRACT: The long-term survival of a species requires, among other things, gene flow between populations. Approaches for the evaluation of fragmentation in the frame of freshwater habitats consider only a small amount of the information that combined demography and geography are currently able to provide. This study addresses two species of Austropotamobius crayfish in the light of population genetics, spatial ecology and protected areas of the Carpathians. Advancing the classical approaches, we defined ecological distances upon the rasterised river network as a surrogate of habitat resistance to migration, quantifying the deviations from the species´ suitability range for a set of relevant geospatial variables in each cell of the network. Molecular analyses revealed the populations of the two Austropotamobius crayfish species are clearly distinct, lacking hybridisation. Comparing pairs of populations, we found, in some cases, a strong disagreement regarding genetic and ecological distances, potentially due to human-mediated translocations or the geophysical phenomena of regressive erosion, which may have led to unexpected colonisation routes. Protected areas were found to offer appropriate local habitat conditions but failed to ensure connectivity. The methodology applied in this study allowed us to quantify the contribution of each geospatial (environmental) variable to the overall effect of fragmentation, and we found that water quality was the most important variable. A multilevel approach proved to reveal a better understanding of drivers behind the distribution patterns, which can lead to more adequate conservation measures.

SUBMITTER: Parvulescu L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7483723 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:AimDue to their longevity and structure, forest ecosystems are particularly affected by climate change with consequences for their biodiversity, functioning, and services to mankind. In the European Union (EU), natural and seminatural forests are protected by the Habitats Directive and the Natura 2000 network. This study aimed to assess the exposure of three legally defined forest habitat types to climate change, namely (a) Tilio-Acerion forests of slopes, screes, and ravines (9180*), (b) bog woodlands (91D0*), and (c) alluvial forests with Alnus glutinosa and Fraxinus excelsior (91E0*). We analyzed possible changes in their Bavarian distribution, including their potential future coverage by Natura 2000 sites. We hypothesized that protected areas (PAs) with larger elevational ranges will remain suitable for the forests as they allow for altitudinal distribution shifts.MethodsTo estimate changes in range size and coverage by PAs, we combined correlative species distribution models (SDMs) with spatial analyses. Ensembles of SDM-algorithms were applied to two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of the HadGEM2-ES model for the period 2061-2080.ResultsOur results revealed that bog woodlands experience the highest range losses (>2/3) and lowest PA coverage (max. 15% of sites with suitable conditions). Tilio-Acerion forests exhibit opposing trends depending on the scenario, while alluvial forests are less exposed to climatic changes. As expected, the impacts of climate change are more pronounced under the "business as usual" scenario (RCP8.5). Additionally, PAs in flat landscapes are more likely to lose environmental suitability for currently established forest habitat types.Main conclusionsBased on these findings, we advocate the expansion of the Natura 2000 network particularly in consideration of elevational gradients, connectivity, and projected climatic suitability. Nonclimatic stressors on forest ecosystems, especially bog woodlands, should be decreased and climate change mitigation efforts enhanced. We recommend transferring the approach to other habitat types and regions.

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The future of endangered crayfish in light of protected areas and habitat fragmentation

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