Dataset Information

Time-series modelling of dengue incidence in the Mekong Delta region of Viet Nam using remote sensing data.

ABSTRACT: Objective:This study aims to enhance the capacity of dengue prediction by investigating the relationship of dengue incidence with climate and environmental factors in the Mekong Delta region (MDR) of Viet Nam by using remote sensing data. Methods:To produce monthly data sets for each province, we extracted and aggregated precipitation data from the Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation project and land surface temperatures and normalized difference vegetation indexes from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellite observations. Monthly data sets from 2000 to 2016 were used to construct autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to predict dengue incidence for 12 provinces across the study region. Results:The final models were able to predict dengue incidence from January to December 2016 that concurred with the observation that dengue epidemics occur mostly in rainy seasons. As a result, the obtained model presents a good fit at a regional level with the correlation value of 0.65 between predicted and reported dengue cases; nevertheless, its performance declines at the subregional scale. Conclusion:We demonstrated the use of remote sensing data in time-series to develop a model of dengue incidence in the MDR of Viet Nam. Results indicated that this approach could be an effective method to predict regional dengue incidence and its trends.

SUBMITTER: Pham NT

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7485513 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jan-Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Time-series modelling of dengue incidence in the Mekong Delta region of Viet Nam using remote sensing data.

Pham Nga Tt NT Nguyen Cong T CT Pineda-Cortel Maria Ruth B MRB

Western Pacific surveillance and response journal : WPSAR 20200101 1

<h4>Objective</h4>This study aims to enhance the capacity of dengue prediction by investigating the relationship of dengue incidence with climate and environmental factors in the Mekong Delta region (MDR) of Viet Nam by using remote sensing data.<h4>Methods</h4>To produce monthly data sets for each province, we extracted and aggregated precipitation data from the Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation project and land surface temperatures and normalized difference vegetation indexes from the ...[more]

PMID: 32963887

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Project description:BackgroundA key step to advancing the goal of malaria elimination in Viet Nam by 2030 is focusing limited resources for treatment and prevention to groups most at risk for malaria transmission.MethodsTo better understand risk factors for malaria transmission in central Viet Nam, a survey of 1000 malaria positive cases and 1000 malaria negative controls was conducted. Cases and controls were matched for age and gender and self-presented at commune health stations (CHS) in Binh Phuoc, Dak Nong and Dak Lak Provinces. Diagnoses were confirmed with microscopy, rapid diagnostic test and PCR. Participants were interviewed about 50 potential risk factors for malaria, which included information about occupation, forest visitation, travel, healthcare-seeking behaviour and prior use of anti-malaria interventions. Participants were enrolled by trained government health workers and the samples were analysed in Vietnamese government laboratories. Data were analysed by univariable, block-wise and multivariable logistic regression.ResultsAmong cases, 61.8% had Plasmodium falciparum, 35.2% Plasmodium vivax and 3% mixed species infections. Median (IQR) age was 27 (21-36) years and 91.2% were male. Twenty-five risk factors were associated with being a case and eleven with being a control. Multivariable analysis found that malaria cases correlated with forest workers, recent forest visitation, longer duration of illness, having a recorded fever, number of malaria infections in the past year, having had prior malaria treatment and having previously visited a clinic.ConclusionsThis study demonstrates the benefits of increased statistical power from matched controls in malaria surveillance studies, which allows identification of additional independent risk factors. It also illustrates an example of research partnership between academia and government to collect high quality data relevant to planning malaria elimination activities. Modifiable risk factors and implications of the findings for malaria elimination strategy are presented.

Project description:BackgroundSince 1962, enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) has been implicated in multiple outbreaks and sporadic cases of respiratory infection worldwide, but especially in the USA and Europe with an increasing frequency between 2010 and 2014. We describe the detection, associated clinical features and molecular characterization of EV-D68 in central and southern Viet Nam between 2009 and 2015.MethodsEnterovirus/rhinovirus PCR positive respiratory or CSF samples taken from children and adults with respiratory/central nervous system infections in Viet Nam were tested by an EV-D68 specific PCR. The included samples were derived from 3 different observational studies conducted at referral hospitals across central and southern Viet Nam between 2009 and 2015. Whole-genome sequencing was carried out using a MiSeq based approach. Phylogenetic reconstruction and estimation of evolutionary rate and recombination were carried out in BEAST and Recombination Detection Program, respectively.ResultsEV-D68 was detected in 21/625 (3.4%) enterovirus/rhinovirus PCR positive respiratory samples but in none of the 15 CSF. All the EV-D68 patients were young children (age range: 11.8 - 24.5 months) and had moderate respiratory infections. Phylogenetic analysis suggested that the Vietnamese sequences clustered with those from Asian countries, of which 9 fell in the B1 clade, and the remaining sequence was identified within the A2 clade. One intra sub-clade recombination event was detected, representing the second reported recombination within EV-D68. The evolutionary rate of EV-D68 was estimated to be 5.12E -3 substitutions/site/year. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that the virus was imported into Viet Nam in 2008.ConclusionsWe have demonstrated for the first time EV-D68 has been circulating at low levels in Viet Nam since 2008, associated with moderate acute respiratory infection in children. EV-D68 in Viet Nam is most closely related to Asian viruses, and clusters separately from recent US and European viruses that were suggested to be associated with acute flaccid paralysis.

Dataset Information

Time-series modelling of dengue incidence in the Mekong Delta region of Viet Nam using remote sensing data.

Publications

Time-series modelling of dengue incidence in the Mekong Delta region of Viet Nam using remote sensing data.

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