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COVID-19 mortality dynamics: The future modelled as a (mixture of) past(s).

ABSTRACT: Discrepancies in population structures, decision making, health systems and numerous other factors result in various COVID-19-mortality dynamics at country scale, and make the forecast of deaths in a country under focus challenging. However, mortality dynamics of countries that are ahead of time implicitly include these factors and can be used as real-life competing predicting models. We precisely propose such a data-driven approach implemented in a publicly available web app timely providing mortality curves comparisons and real-time short-term forecasts for about 100 countries. Here, the approach is applied to compare the mortality trajectories of second-line and front-line European countries facing the COVID-19 epidemic wave. Using data up to mid-April, we show that the second-line countries generally followed relatively mild mortality curves rather than fast and severe ones. Thus, the continuation, after mid-April, of the COVID-19 wave across Europe was likely to be mitigated and not as strong as it was in most of the front-line countries first impacted by the wave (this prediction is corroborated by posterior data).

SUBMITTER: Soubeyrand S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7485826 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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COVID-19 mortality dynamics: The future modelled as a (mixture of) past(s).

Soubeyrand Samuel S Ribaud Mélina M Baudrot Virgile V Allard Denis D Pommeret Denys D Roques Lionel L

PloS one 20200911 9

Discrepancies in population structures, decision making, health systems and numerous other factors result in various COVID-19-mortality dynamics at country scale, and make the forecast of deaths in a country under focus challenging. However, mortality dynamics of countries that are ahead of time implicitly include these factors and can be used as real-life competing predicting models. We precisely propose such a data-driven approach implemented in a publicly available web app timely providing mo ...[more]

PMID: 32915815

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Project description:BackgroundThe threat of contagious infectious diseases is constantly evolving as demographic explosion, travel globalization, and changes in human lifestyle increase the risk of spreading pathogens, leading to accelerated changes in disease landscape. Of particular interest is the aftermath of superimposing viral epidemics (especially SARS-CoV-2) over long-standing diseases, such as tuberculosis (TB), which remains a significant disease for public health worldwide and especially in emerging economies.Methods and resultsThe PubMed electronic database was systematically searched for relevant articles linking TB, influenza, and SARS-CoV viruses and subsequently assessed eligibility according to inclusion criteria. Using a data mining approach, we also queried the COVID-19 Open Research Dataset (CORD-19). We aimed to answer the following questions: What can be learned from other coronavirus outbreaks (focusing on TB patients)? Is coinfection (TB and SARS-CoV-2) more severe? Is there a vaccine for SARS-CoV-2? How does the TB vaccine affect COVID-19? How does one diagnosis affect the other? Discussions. Few essential elements about TB and SARS-CoV coinfections were discussed. First, lessons from past outbreaks (other coronaviruses) and influenza pandemic/seasonal outbreaks have taught the importance of infection control to avoid the severe impact on TB patients. Second, although challenging due to data scarcity, investigating the pathological pathways linking TB and SARS-CoV-2 leads to the idea that their coexistence might yield a more severe clinical evolution. Finally, we addressed the issues of vaccination and diagnostic reliability in the context of coinfection.ConclusionsBecause viral respiratory infections and TB impede the host's immune responses, it can be assumed that their lethal synergism may contribute to more severe clinical evolution. Despite the rapidly growing number of cases, the data needed to predict the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on patients with latent TB and TB sequelae still lies ahead. The trial is registered with NCT04327206, NCT01829490, and NCT04121494.

Dataset Information

COVID-19 mortality dynamics: The future modelled as a (mixture of) past(s).

Publications

COVID-19 mortality dynamics: The future modelled as a (mixture of) past(s).

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