Dataset Information

Migration rate estimation in an epidemic network.

ABSTRACT: Most of the recent epidemic outbreaks in the world have as a trigger, a strong migratory component as has been evident in the recent Covid-19 pandemic. In this work we address the problem of migration of human populations and its effect on pathogen reinfections in the case of Dengue, using a Markov-chain susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) metapopulation model over a network. Our model postulates a general contact rate that represents a local measure of several factors: the population size of infected hosts that arrive at a given location as a function of total population size, the current incidence at neighboring locations, and the connectivity of the network where the disease spreads. This parameter can be interpreted as an indicator of outbreak risk at a given location. This parameter is tied to the fraction of individuals that move across boundaries (migration). To illustrate our model capabilities, we estimate from epidemic Dengue data in Mexico the dynamics of migration at a regional scale incorporating climate variability represented by an index based on precipitation data.

SUBMITTER: Nunez-Lopez M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7486824 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Migration rate estimation in an epidemic network.

Núñez-López M M Alarcón Ramos L L Velasco-Hernández J X JX

Applied mathematical modelling 20200912

Most of the recent epidemic outbreaks in the world have as a trigger, a strong migratory component as has been evident in the recent Covid-19 pandemic. In this work we address the problem of migration of human populations and its effect on pathogen reinfections in the case of Dengue, using a Markov-chain susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) metapopulation model over a network. Our model postulates a general contact rate that represents a local measure of several factors: the population size of ...[more]

PMID: 32952269

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundAccurate evaluation of glomerular filtration rates (GFRs) is of critical importance in clinical practice. A previous study showed that models based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) could achieve a better performance than traditional equations. However, large-sample cross-sectional surveys have not resolved questions about ANN performance.MethodsA total of 1,180 patients that had chronic kidney disease (CKD) were enrolled in the development data set, the internal validation data set and the external validation data set. Additional 222 patients that were admitted to two independent institutions were externally validated. Several ANNs were constructed and finally a Back Propagation network optimized by a genetic algorithm (GABP network) was chosen as a superior model, which included six input variables; i.e., serum creatinine, serum urea nitrogen, age, height, weight and gender, and estimated GFR as the one output variable. Performance was then compared with the Cockcroft-Gault equation, the MDRD equations and the CKD-EPI equation.ResultsIn the external validation data set, Bland-Altman analysis demonstrated that the precision of the six-variable GABP network was the highest among all of the estimation models; i.e., 46.7 ml/min/1.73 m(2) vs. a range from 71.3 to 101.7 ml/min/1.73 m(2), allowing improvement in accuracy (15% accuracy, 49.0%; 30% accuracy, 75.1%; 50% accuracy, 90.5% [P<0.001 for all]) and CKD stage classification (misclassification rate of CKD stage, 32.4% vs. a range from 47.3% to 53.3% [P<0.001 for all]). Furthermore, in the additional external validation data set, precision and accuracy were improved by the six-variable GABP network.ConclusionsA new ANN model (the six-variable GABP network) for CKD patients was developed that could provide a simple, more accurate and reliable means for the estimation of GFR and stage of CKD than traditional equations. Further validations are needed to assess the ability of the ANN model in diverse populations.

Dataset Information

Migration rate estimation in an epidemic network.

Publications

Migration rate estimation in an epidemic network.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets