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Mathematical modeling study of school-based chlamydia screening: potential impact on chlamydia prevalence in intervention schools and surrounding communities.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Chlamydia screening in high schools offers a way to reach adolescents outside of a traditional clinic setting. Using transmission dynamic modeling, we examined the potential impact of high-school-based chlamydia screening programs on the burden of infection within intervention schools and surrounding communities, under varying epidemiological and programmatic conditions. METHODS:A chlamydia transmission model was calibrated to epidemiological data from three different settings. Philadelphia and Chicago are two high-burden cities with existing school-based screening programs. Rural Iowa does not have an existing program but represents a low-burden setting. We modeled the effects of the two existing programs to analyze the potential influence of program coverage and student participation. All three settings were used to examine a broader set of hypothetical programs with varying coverage levels and time trends in participation. RESULTS:In the modeled Philadelphia program, prevalence among the intervention schools' sexually active 15-18?years old population was 4.34% (95% credible interval 3.75-4.71%)after 12 program years compared to 5.03% (4.39-5.43%) in absence of the program. In the modeled Chicago program, prevalence was estimated as 5.97% (2.60-7.88%) after 4 program years compared to 7.00% (3.08-9.29%) without the program. In the broader hypothetical scenarios including both high-burden and low-burden settings, impact of school-based screening programs was greater in absolute terms in the higher-prevalence settings, and benefits in the community were approximately proportional to population coverage of intervention schools. Most benefits were garnered if the student participation did not decline over time. CONCLUSIONS:Sustained high student participation in school-based screening programs and broad coverage of schools within a target community are likely needed to maximize program benefits in terms of reduced burden of chlamydia in the adolescent population.

SUBMITTER: Ronn MM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7487537 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Mathematical modeling study of school-based chlamydia screening: potential impact on chlamydia prevalence in intervention schools and surrounding communities.

Rönn Minttu M MM Dunville Richard R Wang Li Yan LY Bellerose Meghan M Malyuta Yelena Y Menzies Nicolas A NA Aslam Maria M Lewis Felicia F Walker-Baban Cherie C Asbel Lenore L Parchem Sarah S Masinter Lisa L Perez Ernestina E Gift Tom L TL Hsu Katherine K Barrios Lisa C LC Salomon Joshua A JA

BMC public health 20200905 1

<h4>Background</h4>Chlamydia screening in high schools offers a way to reach adolescents outside of a traditional clinic setting. Using transmission dynamic modeling, we examined the potential impact of high-school-based chlamydia screening programs on the burden of infection within intervention schools and surrounding communities, under varying epidemiological and programmatic conditions.<h4>Methods</h4>A chlamydia transmission model was calibrated to epidemiological data from three different s ...[more]

PMID: 32891137

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Project description:Cancer screening and early detection efforts have been partially successful in reducing incidence and mortality, but many improvements are needed. Although current medical practice is informed by epidemiologic studies and experts, the decisions for guidelines are ultimately ad hoc. We propose here that quantitative optimization of protocols can potentially increase screening success and reduce overdiagnosis. Mathematical modeling of the stochastic process of cancer evolution can be used to derive and optimize the timing of clinical screens so that the probability is maximal that a patient is screened within a certain "window of opportunity" for intervention when early cancer development may be observable. Alternative to a strictly empirical approach or microsimulations of a multitude of possible scenarios, biologically based mechanistic modeling can be used for predicting when best to screen and begin adaptive surveillance. We introduce a methodology for optimizing screening, assessing potential risks, and quantifying associated costs to healthcare using multiscale models. As a case study in Barrett's esophagus, these methods were applied for a model of esophageal adenocarcinoma that was previously calibrated to U.S. cancer registry data. Optimal screening ages for patients with symptomatic gastroesophageal reflux disease were older (58 for men and 64 for women) than what is currently recommended (age > 50 years). These ages are in a cost-effective range to start screening and were independently validated by data used in current guidelines. Collectively, our framework captures critical aspects of cancer evolution within patients with Barrett's esophagus for a more personalized screening design. SIGNIFICANCE: This study demonstrates how mathematical modeling of cancer evolution can be used to optimize screening regimes, with the added potential to improve surveillance regimes. GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT: http://cancerres.aacrjournals.org/content/canres/81/4/1123/F1.large.jpg.

Project description:ObjectiveChlamydia trachomatis (Ct) is the most commonly reported sexually transmitted infection in the USA and causes important reproductive morbidity in women. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommend routine screening of sexually active women under age 25 but not among men. Despite three decades of screening women, chlamydia prevalence in women remains high. Untested and untreated men can serve as a reservoir of infection in women, and male-screening based intervention can be an effective strategy to reduce infection in women. We assessed the impact of screening men on the Ct prevalence in women.DesignWe created an individual-based network model to simulate a realistic chlamydia epidemic on sexual contact networks for a synthetic population (n=5000). The model is calibrated to the ongoing routine screening among African American (AA) women in the USA and detailed a male-screening programme, Check It, that bundles best practices for Ct control. We used sensitivity analysis to quantify the relative importance of each intervention component.SettingCommunity-based venues in New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.ParticipantsHeterosexual AA men, aged 15 to 24, who had sex with women in the past 2 months.InterventionVenue-based screening, expedited index treatment, expedited partner treatment and rescreening.ResultsWe estimate that by annually screening 7.5% of the AA male population in the age-range, the chlamydia prevalence would be reduced relatively by 8.1% (95% CI 5.9% to 10.4%) in AA women and 8.8% (95% CI 6.9% to 10.8%) in AA men. Each man screened could prevent 0.062 (95% CI 0.030 to 0.094) cases in men and 0.204 (95% CI 0.143 to 0.267) cases in women. The model suggested the importance of intervention components ranked from high to low as venue-based screening, expedited index treatment, expedited partner treatment and rescreening.ConclusionThe findings indicated that male-screening has the potential to substantially reduce the prevalence among women in high-prevalence communities.

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Mathematical modeling study of school-based chlamydia screening: potential impact on chlamydia prevalence in intervention schools and surrounding communities.

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Mathematical modeling study of school-based chlamydia screening: potential impact on chlamydia prevalence in intervention schools and surrounding communities.

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