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Efficiency on the dynamic adjustment path in a financial market

ABSTRACT: The invisible hand of a perfectly competitive financial market refers to the self-regulating behavior of the market where if each consumer and producer of funds is allowed to freely make their own choices, the market settles at an efficient outcome which is beneficial to all the individual members of the society and hence to the society as a whole. Two well-known facets of the invisible hand are generally mentioned in the economics and finance literature - the first one is a static picture of a perfectly competitive market, i.e., a competitive market is efficient in an equilibrium; and the second one is that if the competitive market is disturbed from its equilibrium position, in the absence of a market failure and frictions, the market automatically settles at a new efficient equilibrium. This paper takes into account a third facet, i.e., how efficient is a perfectly competitive financial market on the dynamic adjustment path after an economic shock in the absence of all kinds of frictions and interest rate rigidities. We conclude that coordinated actions of economic agents can result in a level of economic efficiency on the dynamic adjustment path which is not achievable by a free market mechanism.

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The online version of this article (10.1007/s12197-020-09523-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

SUBMITTER: Nawaz N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7494366 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Herd behaviour in financial markets is a recurring phenomenon that exacerbates asset price volatility, and is considered a possible contributor to market fragility. While numerous studies investigate herd behaviour in financial markets, it is often considered without reference to the pricing of financial instruments or other market dynamics. Here, a trader interaction model based upon informational cascades in the presence of information thresholds is used to construct a new model of asset price returns that allows for both quiescent and herd-like regimes. Agent interaction is modelled using a stochastic pulse-coupled network, parametrised by information thresholds and a network coupling probability. Agents may possess either one or two information thresholds that, in each case, determine the number of distinct states an agent may occupy before trading takes place. In the case where agents possess two thresholds (labelled as the finite state-space model, corresponding to agents' accumulating information over a bounded state-space), and where coupling strength is maximal, an asymptotic expression for the cascade-size probability is derived and shown to follow a power law when a critical value of network coupling probability is attained. For a range of model parameters, a mixture of negative binomial distributions is used to approximate the cascade-size distribution. This approximation is subsequently used to express the volatility of model price returns in terms of the model parameter which controls the network coupling probability. In the case where agents possess a single pulse-coupling threshold (labelled as the semi-infinite state-space model corresponding to agents' accumulating information over an unbounded state-space), numerical evidence is presented that demonstrates volatility clustering and long-memory patterns in the volatility of asset returns. Finally, output from the model is compared to both the distribution of historical stock returns and the market price of an equity index option.

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Efficiency on the dynamic adjustment path in a financial market

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