Dataset Information

Validation of a Machine Learning Model to Predict Childhood Lead Poisoning.

ABSTRACT: Importance:Childhood lead poisoning causes irreversible neurobehavioral deficits, but current practice is secondary prevention. Objective:To validate a machine learning (random forest) prediction model of elevated blood lead levels (EBLLs) by comparison with a parsimonious logistic regression. Design, Setting, and Participants:This prognostic study for temporal validation of multivariable prediction models used data from the Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) program of the Chicago Department of Public Health. Participants included a development cohort of children born from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2012, and a validation WIC cohort born from January 1 to December 31, 2013. Blood lead levels were measured until December 31, 2018. Data were analyzed from January 1 to October 31, 2019. Exposures:Blood lead level test results; lead investigation findings; housing characteristics, permits, and violations; and demographic variables. Main Outcomes and Measures:Incident EBLL (?6 ?g/dL). Models were assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and confusion matrix metrics (positive predictive value, sensitivity, and specificity) at various thresholds. Results:Among 6812 children in the WIC validation cohort, 3451 (50.7%) were female, 3057 (44.9%) were Hispanic, 2804 (41.2%) were non-Hispanic Black, 458 (6.7%) were non-Hispanic White, and 442 (6.5%) were Asian (mean [SD] age, 5.5 [0.3] years). The median year of housing construction was 1919 (interquartile range, 1903-1948). Random forest AUC was 0.69 compared with 0.64 for logistic regression (difference, 0.05; 95% CI, 0.02-0.08). When predicting the 5% of children at highest risk to have EBLLs, random forest and logistic regression models had positive predictive values of 15.5% and 7.8%, respectively (difference, 7.7%; 95% CI, 3.7%-11.3%), sensitivity of 16.2% and 8.1%, respectively (difference, 8.1%; 95% CI, 3.9%-11.7%), and specificity of 95.5% and 95.1% (difference, 0.4%; 95% CI, 0.0%-0.7%). Conclusions and Relevance:The machine learning model outperformed regression in predicting childhood lead poisoning, especially in identifying children at highest risk. Such a model could be used to target the allocation of lead poisoning prevention resources to these children.

SUBMITTER: Potash E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7495240 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Validation of a Machine Learning Model to Predict Childhood Lead Poisoning.

Potash Eric E Ghani Rayid R Walsh Joe J Jorgensen Emile E Lohff Cortland C Prachand Nik N Mansour Raed R

JAMA network open 20200901 9

<h4>Importance</h4>Childhood lead poisoning causes irreversible neurobehavioral deficits, but current practice is secondary prevention.<h4>Objective</h4>To validate a machine learning (random forest) prediction model of elevated blood lead levels (EBLLs) by comparison with a parsimonious logistic regression.<h4>Design, setting, and participants</h4>This prognostic study for temporal validation of multivariable prediction models used data from the Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) program of the ...[more]

PMID: 32936296

Similar Datasets

Project description:ImportanceMachine-learning algorithms offer better predictive accuracy than traditional prognostic models but are too complex and opaque for clinical use.ObjectiveTo compare different machine learning methods in predicting overall mortality in cirrhosis and to use machine learning to select easily scored clinical variables for a novel cirrhosis prognostic model.Design, setting, and participantsThis prognostic study used a retrospective cohort of adult patients with cirrhosis or its complications seen in 130 hospitals and affiliated ambulatory clinics in the integrated, national Veterans Affairs health care system from October 1, 2011, to September 30, 2015. Patients were followed up through December 31, 2018. Data were analyzed from October 1, 2017, to May 31, 2020.ExposuresPotential predictors included demographic characteristics; liver disease etiology, severity, and complications; use of health care resources; comorbid conditions; and comprehensive laboratory and medication data. Patients were randomly selected for model development (66.7%) and validation (33.3%). Three different statistical and machine learning methods were evaluated: gradient descent boosting, logistic regression with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regularization, and logistic regression with LASSO constrained to select no more than 10 predictors (partial pathway model). Predictor inclusion and model performance were evaluated in a 5-fold cross-validation. Last, the predictors identified in the most parsimonious (the partial path) model were refit using maximum-likelihood estimation (Cirrhosis Mortality Model [CiMM]), and its predictive performance was compared with that of the widely used Model for End Stage Liver Disease with sodium (MELD-Na) score.Main outcomes and measuresAll-cause mortality.ResultsOf the 107 939 patients with cirrhosis (mean [SD] age, 62.7 [9.6] years; 96.6% male; 66.3% white, 18.4% African American), the annual mortality rate ranged from 8.8% to 15.3%. In total, 32.7% of patients died within 3 years, and 46.2% died within 5 years after the index date. Models predicting 1-year mortality had good discrimination for the gradient descent boosting (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve [AUC], 0.81; 95% CI, 0.80-0.82), logistic regression with LASSO regularization (AUC, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.77-0.79), and the partial path logistic model (AUC, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.76-0.78). All models showed good calibration. The final CiMM model with machine learning-derived clinical variables offered significantly better discrimination than the MELD-Na score, with AUCs of 0.78 (95% CI, 0.77-0.79) vs 0.67 (95% CI, 0.66-0.68) for 1-year mortality, respectively (DeLong z = 17.00; P < .001).Conclusions and relevanceIn this study, simple machine learning techniques performed as well as the more advanced ensemble gradient boosting. Using the clinical variables identified from simple machine learning in a cirrhosis mortality model produced a new score more transparent than machine learning and more predictive than the MELD-Na score.

Project description:BackgroundEarly prediction model of hemodynamic instability has the potential to improve the critical care, whereas limited external validation on the generalizability. We aimed to independently validate the Hemodynamic Stability Index (HSI), a multi-parameter machine learning model, in predicting hemodynamic instability in Asian patients.MethodHemodynamic instability was marked by using inotropic, vasopressor, significant fluid therapy, and/or blood transfusions. This retrospective study included among 15,967 ICU patients who aged 20 years or older (not included 20 years) and stayed in ICU for more than 6 h admitted to Taipei Veteran General Hospital (TPEVGH) between January 1, 2010, and March 31, 2020, of whom hemodynamic instability occurred in 3053 patients (prevalence = 19%). These patients in unstable group received at least one intervention during their ICU stays, and the HSI score of both stable and unstable group was calculated in every hour before intervention. The model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and was compared to single indicators like systolic blood pressure (SBP) and shock index. The hemodynamic instability alarm was set by selecting optimal threshold with high sensitivity, acceptable specificity, and lead time before intervention was calculated to indicate when patients were firstly identified as high risk of hemodynamic instability.ResultsThe AUROC of HSI was 0.76 (95% CI, 0.75-0.77), which performed significantly better than shock Index (0.7; 95% CI, 0.69-0.71) and SBP (0.69; 95% CI, 0.68-0.70). By selecting 0.7 as a threshold, HSI predicted 72% of all 3053 patients who received hemodynamic interventions with 67% in specificity. Time-varying results also showed that HSI score significantly outperformed single indicators even up to 24 h before intervention. And 95% unstable patients can be identified more than 5 h in advance.ConclusionsThe HSI has acceptable discrimination but underestimates the risk of stable patients in predicting the onset of hemodynamic instability in an external cohort.

Project description:BackgroundPostoperative sepsis is one of the main causes of mortality after liver transplantation (LT). Our study aimed to develop and validate a predictive model for postoperative sepsis within 7 d in LT recipients using machine learning (ML) technology.MethodsData of 786 patients received LT from January 2015 to January 2020 was retrospectively extracted from the big data platform of Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University. Seven ML models were developed to predict postoperative sepsis. The area under the receiver-operating curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and f1-score were evaluated as the model performances. The model with the best performance was validated in an independent dataset involving 118 adult LT cases from February 2020 to April 2021. The postoperative sepsis-associated outcomes were also explored in the study.ResultsAfter excluding 109 patients according to the exclusion criteria, 677 patients underwent LT were finally included in the analysis. Among them, 216 (31.9%) were diagnosed with sepsis after LT, which were related to more perioperative complications, increased postoperative hospital stay and mortality after LT (all p < .05). Our results revealed that a larger volume of red blood cell infusion, ascitic removal, blood loss and gastric drainage, less volume of crystalloid infusion and urine, longer anesthesia time, higher level of preoperative TBIL were the top 8 important variables contributing to the prediction of post-LT sepsis. The Random Forest Classifier (RF) model showed the best overall performance to predict sepsis after LT among the seven ML models developed in the study, with an AUC of 0.731, an accuracy of 71.6%, the sensitivity of 62.1%, and specificity of 76.1% in the internal validation set, and a comparable AUC of 0.755 in the external validation set.ConclusionsOur study enrolled eight pre- and intra-operative variables to develop an RF-based predictive model of post-LT sepsis to assist clinical decision-making procedure.

Project description:BackgroundAccurately predicting the occurrence of imminent new vertebral fractures (NVFs) in patients with osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures (OVCFs) undergoing vertebral augmentation (VA) is challenging with yet no effective approach. This study aim to examine a machine learning model based on radiomics signature and clinical factors in predicting imminent new vertebral fractures after vertebral augmentation.MethodsA total of 235 eligible patients with OVCFs who underwent VA procedures were recruited from two independent institutions and categorized into three groups, including training set (n = 138), internal validation set (n = 59), and external validation set (n = 38). In the training set, radiomics features were computationally retrieved from L1 or adjacent vertebral body (T12 or L2) on T1-w MRI images, and a radiomics signature was constructed using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator algorithm (LASSO). Predictive radiomics signature and clinical factors were fitted into two final prediction models using the random survival forest (RSF) algorithm or COX proportional hazard (CPH) analysis. Independent internal and external validation sets were used to validate the prediction models.ResultsThe two prediction models were integrated with radiomics signature and intravertebral cleft (IVC). The RSF model with C-indices of 0.763, 0.773, and 0.731 and time-dependent AUC (2 years) of 0.855, 0.907, and 0.839 (p < 0.001 for all) was found to be better predictive than the CPH model in training, internal and external validation sets. The RSF model provided better calibration, larger net benefits (determined by decision curve analysis), and lower prediction error (time-dependent brier score of 0.156, 0.151, and 0.146, respectively) than the CPH model.ConclusionsThe integrated RSF model showed the potential to predict imminent NVFs following vertebral augmentation, which will aid in postoperative follow-up and treatment.

Project description:BackgroundEarly recognition of severely injured patients in prehospital settings is of paramount importance for timely treatment and transportation of patients to further treatment facilities. The dispatching accuracy has seldom been addressed in previous studies.ObjectiveIn this study, we aimed to build a machine learning-based model through text mining of emergency calls for the automated identification of severely injured patients after a road accident.MethodsAudio recordings of road accidents in Taipei City, Taiwan, in 2018 were obtained and randomly sampled. Data on call transfers or non-Mandarin speeches were excluded. To predict cases of severe trauma identified on-site by emergency medical technicians, all included cases were evaluated by both humans (6 dispatchers) and a machine learning model, that is, a prehospital-activated major trauma (PAMT) model. The PAMT model was developed using term frequency-inverse document frequency, rule-based classification, and a Bernoulli naïve Bayes classifier. Repeated random subsampling cross-validation was applied to evaluate the robustness of the model. The prediction performance of dispatchers and the PAMT model, in severe cases, was compared. Performance was indicated by sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy.ResultsAlthough the mean sensitivity and negative predictive value obtained by the PAMT model were higher than those of dispatchers, they obtained higher mean specificity, positive predictive value, and accuracy. The mean accuracy of the PAMT model, from certainty level 0 (lowest certainty) to level 6 (highest certainty), was higher except for levels 5 and 6. The overall performances of the dispatchers and the PAMT model were similar; however, the PAMT model had higher accuracy in cases where the dispatchers were less certain of their judgments.ConclusionsA machine learning-based model, called the PAMT model, was developed to predict severe road accident trauma. The results of our study suggest that the accuracy of the PAMT model is not superior to that of the participating dispatchers; however, it may assist dispatchers when they lack confidence while making a judgment.

Project description:BackgroundEchocardiography (echo) based machine learning (ML) models may be useful in identifying patients at high-risk of all-cause mortality.MethodsWe developed ML models (ResNet deep learning using echo videos and CatBoost gradient boosting using echo measurements) to predict 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year mortality. Models were trained on the Mackay dataset, Taiwan (6083 echos, 3626 patients) and validated in the Alberta HEART dataset, Canada (997 echos, 595 patients). We examined the performance of the models overall, and in subgroups (healthy controls, at risk of heart failure (HF), HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF)). We compared the models' performance to the MAGGIC risk score, and examined the correlation between the models' predicted probability of death and baseline quality of life as measured by the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ).FindingsMortality rates at 1-, 3- and 5-years were 14.9%, 28.6%, and 42.5% in the Mackay cohort, and 3.0%, 10.3%, and 18.7%, in the Alberta HEART cohort. The ResNet and CatBoost models achieved area under the receiver-operating curve (AUROC) between 85% and 92% in internal validation. In external validation, the AUROCs for the ResNet (82%, 82%, and 78%) were significantly better than CatBoost (78%, 73%, and 75%), for 1-, 3- and 5-year mortality prediction respectively, with better or comparable performance to the MAGGIC score. ResNet models predicted higher probability of death in the HFpEF and HFrEF (30%-50%) subgroups than in controls and at risk patients (5%-20%). The predicted probabilities of death correlated with KCCQ scores (all p < 0.05).InterpretationEcho-based ML models to predict mortality had good internal and external validity, were generalizable, correlated with patients' quality of life, and are comparable to an established HF risk score. These models can be leveraged for automated risk stratification at point-of-care.FundingFunding for Alberta HEART was provided by an Alberta Innovates - Health Solutions Interdisciplinary Team Grant no. AHFMRITG 200801018. P.K. holds a Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) Sex and Gender Science Chair and a Heart & Stroke Foundation Chair in Cardiovascular Research. A.V. and V.S. received funding from the Mitacs Globalink Research Internship.

Dataset Information

Validation of a Machine Learning Model to Predict Childhood Lead Poisoning.

Publications

Validation of a Machine Learning Model to Predict Childhood Lead Poisoning.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets