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A CT-based logistic regression model to predict spread through air space in lung adenocarcinoma

ABSTRACT: Background Spread through air space (STAS) is a novel invasive pattern of lung adenocarcinoma and is also a risk factor for recurrence and worse prognosis of lung adenocarcinoma. This study aimed to develop and validate a computed tomography (CT)-based logistic regression model to predict STAS in lung adenocarcinoma. Methods This retrospective study was approved by the institutional review board of two centers and included 578 patients (462 from center I and 116 from center II) with pathologically confirmed lung adenocarcinoma. STAS was identified from 90 center I patients (19.5%) and 28 center II patients (24.1%) from. The maximum diameter, nodule area, and area of solid components in part-solid nodules were measured. Twenty-one semantic characteristics were assessed. Univariate analysis was used to select CT characteristics, which were associated with STAS in the patient cohort of center I. Multivariable logistic regression was used to develop a CT characteristics-based model on those variables with statistical significance. The model was validated in the validation cohort and then tested in the external test cohort (patients from center II). The diagnostic performance of the model was measured by area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic (ROC). Results At univariate analysis, age and 11 CT characteristics, including the maximum diameter of the tumor, the maximum area of the tumor, the area and ratio of the solid component, nodule type, pleural thickening, pleural retraction, mediastinal lymph node enlargement, vascular cluster sign, and lobulation, specula were found to be significantly associated with STAS. The optimal logistic regression model included age, maximum diameter and ratio of solid component with odds ratio (OR) value of 0.967 (95% CI: 0.944–0.988), 1.027 (95% CI: 1.008–1.046) and 5.14 (95% CI: 2.180–13.321), respectively. This model achieved an AUC of 0.801 (95% CI: 0.709–0.892) and 0.692 (95% CI: 0.518–0.866) in the validation cohort and the external test cohort, respectively. The difference was not statistically significant (P=0.280). Conclusions CT-based logistic regression machine learning model could preoperatively predict STAS in lung adenocarcinoma with excellent diagnosis performance, which could be supplementary to routine CT interpretation.

SUBMITTER: Li C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7495322 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundSpread through air space (STAS) has been identified as a pathological pattern associated with lung cancer progression. Patients with STAS were related to a worse prognosis compared with patients without STAS. The objective of this study was to establish a radiomics model capable of forecasting STAS before surgery, which can assist surgeons in selecting the most appropriate operation type for patients with STAS.MethodThere were 537 eligible patients retrospectively included in this study. ROI segmentation was performed manually on all CT images to identify the region of interest. From each segmented lesion, a total of 1688 features were extracted. The tumor size, maximum tumor diameters, and tumor type were also recorded. Using Spearman's correlation coefficient to calculate the correlation and redundancy of elements, and redundant features less than 0.80 were removed. In order to reduce the level of overfitting and avoid statistical biases, a dimension reduction process of the dataset was conducted to decrease the number of features. Finally, a radiomics model included 44 features was established to predict STAS. To evaluate the performance of the model, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used, and the area under the curve (AUC) was calculated, and the accuracy of the model was verified by 10-fold cross-validation.ResultsThe incidence of STAS was 38.2% (205/537). The tumor type, maximum tumor diameters, and consolidation tumor ratio were significantly different between STAS group and non-STAS group. The training group included 430 patients, while the test group was consisted with 107. The training group achieved an AUC of 0.825 (sensitivity, 0.875; specificity, 0.621; and accuracy, 0.749) and the test group had an AUC of 0.802 (sensitivity, 0.797; specificity,0.688; and accuracy, 0.748). The 10-fold cross-validation had an AUC of 0.834.ConclusionCT-based radiomic model can predict STAS effectively, which is of great importance to guide the selection of operation types before surgery.

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A CT-based logistic regression model to predict spread through air space in lung adenocarcinoma

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