Dataset Information

Drivers of future alien species impacts: An expert-based assessment.

ABSTRACT: Understanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socio-economic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impacts under contrasting scenarios and socioecological contexts through the mid-21st century. Based on responses from 36 experts in biological invasions, moderate (20%-30%) increases in invasions, compared to the current conditions, are expected to cause major impacts on biodiversity in most socioecological contexts. Three main drivers of biological invasions-transport, climate change and socio-economic change-were predicted to significantly affect future impacts of alien species on biodiversity even under a best-case scenario. Other drivers (e.g. human demography and migration in tropical and subtropical regions) were also of high importance in specific global contexts (e.g. for individual taxonomic groups or biomes). We show that some best-case scenarios can substantially reduce potential future impacts of biological invasions. However, rapid and comprehensive actions are necessary to use this potential and achieve the goals of the Post-2020 Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

SUBMITTER: Essl F

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7496498 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Drivers of future alien species impacts: An expert-based assessment.

Essl Franz F Lenzner Bernd B Bacher Sven S Bailey Sarah S Capinha Cesar C Daehler Curtis C Dullinger Stefan S Genovesi Piero P Hui Cang C Hulme Philip E PE Jeschke Jonathan M JM Katsanevakis Stelios S Kühn Ingolf I Leung Brian B Liebhold Andrew A Liu Chunlong C MacIsaac Hugh J HJ Meyerson Laura A LA Nuñez Martin A MA Pauchard Aníbal A Pyšek Petr P Rabitsch Wolfgang W Richardson David M DM Roy Helen E HE Ruiz Gregory M GM Russell James C JC Sanders Nathan J NJ Sax Dov F DF Scalera Riccardo R Seebens Hanno H Springborn Michael M Turbelin Anna A van Kleunen Mark M von Holle Betsy B Winter Marten M Zenni Rafael D RD Mattsson Brady J BJ Roura-Pascual Nuria N

Global change biology 20200714 9

Understanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socio-economic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impacts under contrasting scenarios and socioecological contexts through the mid-21st centur ...[more]

PMID: 32663906

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Project description:Biological invasions have emerged as one of the main drivers of biodiversity change and decline, and numbers of species classed as alien in parts of their ranges are rapidly rising. The European Union established a dedicated regulation to limit the impacts of invasive alien species (IAS), which is focused on the species on a Union List of IAS of particular concern. However, no previous study has specifically addressed the ecology of invasive alien mammals included on the Union List.We performed a systematic review of published literature on these species. We retrieved 262 publications dealing with 16 species, and we complemented these with the most up-to-date information extracted from global databases on IAS.We show that most of the study species reached Europe as pets and then escaped from captivity or were intentionally released. On average each year in the period 1981-2020, 1.2 species were recorded for the first time as aliens in European countries, and most species are still expanding their alien ranges by colonising neighbouring territories. France is the most invaded nation, followed by Germany, Italy, and the Russian Federation, and the muskrat Ondatra zibethicus, the American mink Neovison vison, and the raccoon dog Nyctereutes procyonoides are the most widespread species, having invaded at least 27 countries each. Invasive mammals of European Union concern are threatening native biodiversity and human well-being: worryingly, 81% of the 16 study species are implicated in the epidemiological cycle of zoonotic pathogens.Containing secondary spread to further countries is of paramount importance to avoid the establishment of new populations of invasive mammals and the related impacts on native communities, ecosystem services, and human health.We present a compendium on the ecology and impacts of invasive mammals of European Union concern. It can be used to assist environmental policies, identify and subsequently fill knowledge gaps, and inform stakeholders.

Dataset Information

Drivers of future alien species impacts: An expert-based assessment.

Publications

Drivers of future alien species impacts: An expert-based assessment.

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