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Implications for megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis from seismic gaps south of Java Indonesia.

ABSTRACT: Relocation of earthquakes recorded by the agency for meteorology, climatology and geophysics (BMKG) in Indonesia and inversions of global positioning system (GPS) data reveal clear seismic gaps to the south of the island of Java. These gaps may be related to potential sources of future megathrust earthquakes in the region. To assess the expected inundation hazard, tsunami modeling was conducted based on several scenarios involving large tsunamigenic earthquakes generated by ruptures along segments of the megathrust south of Java. The worst-case scenario, in which the two megathrust segments spanning Java rupture simultaneously, shows that tsunami heights can reach?~?20 m and?~?12 m on the south coast of West and East Java, respectively, with an average maximum height of 4.5 m along the entire south coast of Java. These results support recent calls for a strengthening of the existing Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (InaTEWS), especially in Java, the most densely populated island in Indonesia.

SUBMITTER: Widiyantoro S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7499206 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Implications for megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis from seismic gaps south of Java Indonesia.

Widiyantoro S S Gunawan E E Muhari A A Rawlinson N N Mori J J Hanifa N R NR Susilo S S Supendi P P Shiddiqi H A HA Nugraha A D AD Putra H E HE

Scientific reports 20200917 1

Relocation of earthquakes recorded by the agency for meteorology, climatology and geophysics (BMKG) in Indonesia and inversions of global positioning system (GPS) data reveal clear seismic gaps to the south of the island of Java. These gaps may be related to potential sources of future megathrust earthquakes in the region. To assess the expected inundation hazard, tsunami modeling was conducted based on several scenarios involving large tsunamigenic earthquakes generated by ruptures along segmen ...[more]

PMID: 32943680

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Project description:The largest (M8+) known earthquakes in the Himalaya have ruptured the upper locked section of the Main Himalayan Thrust zone, offsetting the ground surface along the Main Frontal Thrust at the range front. However, out-of-sequence active structures have received less attention. One of the most impressive examples of such faults is the active fault that generally follows the surface trace of the Main Boundary Thrust (MBT). This fault has generated a clear geomorphological signature of recent deformation in eastern and western Nepal, as well as further west in India. We focus on western Nepal, between the municipalities of Surkhet and Gorahi where this fault is well expressed. Although the fault system as a whole is accommodating contraction, across most of its length, this particular fault appears geomorphologically as a normal fault, indicating crustal extension in the hanging wall of the MHT. We focus this study on the reactivation of the MBT along the Surkhet-Gorahi segment of the surface trace of the newly named Reactivated Boundary Fault, which is ~ 120 km long. We first generate a high-resolution Digital Elevation Model from triplets of high-resolution Pleiades images and use this to map the fault scarp and its geomorphological lateral variation. For most of its length, normal motion slip is observed with a dip varying between 20° and 60° and a maximum cumulative vertical offset of 27 m. We then present evidence for recent normal faulting in a trench located in the village of Sukhetal. Radiocarbon dating of detrital charcoals sampled in the hanging wall of the fault, including the main colluvial wedge and overlying sedimentary layers, suggest that the last event occurred in the early sixteenth century. This period saw the devastating 1505 earthquake, which produced ~ 23 m of slip on the Main Frontal Thrust. Linked or not, the ruptures on the MFT and MBT happened within a short time period compared to the centuries of quiescence of the faults that followed. We suggest that episodic normal-sense activity of the MBT could be related to large earthquakes rupturing the MFT, given its proximity, the sense of motion, and the large distance that separates the MBT from the downdip end of the locked fault zone of the MHT fault system. We discuss these results and their implications for the frontal Himalayan thrust system.

Dataset Information

Implications for megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis from seismic gaps south of Java Indonesia.

Publications

Implications for megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis from seismic gaps south of Java Indonesia.

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