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Assessing the prognostic scores for the prediction of the mortality of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure: a retrospective study.

ABSTRACT: Background:Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), which is characterized by rapid deterioration of liver function and multiorgan failure, has high mortality. This study was designed to identify prognostic scores to predict short-term and long-term outcome in patients with ACLF to facilitate early treatment and thereby improve patient survival. Materials and Methods:We retrospectively analyzed 102 ACLF patients who were hospitalized in the gastroenterology department. The EASL-CLIF criteria were used to define the ACLF. The demographic characteristics and biochemical examination results of the patients were acquired, and seven scores (CTP score, MELD score, MELD-Na, CLIF ACLF score, CLIF-C OF score, and CLIF SOFA score) were calculated 24 h after admission. All patients were observed until loss to follow-up, death, or specific follow-up times (28 days, 3 months, and 6 months), which were calculated after the initial hospital admission. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was employed to estimate the power of six scores to forecast ACLF patients' outcome. Results:All scores were distinctly higher in nonsurviving patients than in surviving patients and had predictive value for outcome in patients with ACLF at all time points (P < 0.050). The areas under the ROC curve (AUROCs) of the CLIF-SOFA score were higher than those of other scores at all time points. The comparison of the AUROC of the CLIF-SOFA score with other scores was statistically significant at 28 days (P < 0.050), which was the only time point at which it was greater than 0.800. Conclusion:Patients with ACLF have high mortality. These six scores are effective tools for assessing the prognosis of ACLF patients. The CLIF-SOFA score is especially effective for evaluating 28-day mortality.

SUBMITTER: Zhang Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7500347 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Assessing the prognostic scores for the prediction of the mortality of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure: a retrospective study.

Zhang Yue Y Nie Yuan Y Liu Linxiang L Zhu Xuan X

PeerJ 20200915

<h4>Background</h4>Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), which is characterized by rapid deterioration of liver function and multiorgan failure, has high mortality. This study was designed to identify prognostic scores to predict short-term and long-term outcome in patients with ACLF to facilitate early treatment and thereby improve patient survival.<h4>Materials and methods</h4>We retrospectively analyzed 102 ACLF patients who were hospitalized in the gastroenterology department. The EASL-CLIF ...[more]

PMID: 32983642

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Project description:To validate prognostic scores for acute decompensation of cirrhosis and acute-on-chronic liver failure in Brazilian patients.This is a prospective cohort study designed to assess the prognostic performance of the chronic liver failure-consortium (CLIF-C) acute decompensation score (CLIF-C AD) and CLIF-C acute-on-chronic liver failure score (CLIF-C ACLF), regarding 28-d and 90-d mortality, as well as to compare them to other prognostic models, such as Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD Sodium (MELD-Na), Child-Pugh (CP) score, and the CLIF-C Organ Failure score (CLIF-C OF). All participants were adults with acute decompensation of cirrhosis admitted to the Emergency Department of a tertiary hospital in southern Brazil. Prognostic performances were evaluated by means of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, area under the curves (AUC) and 95%CI.One hundred and thirteen cirrhotic patients were included. At admission, 18 patients had acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) and 95 individuals had acute decompensation (AD) without ACLF, of which 24 eventually developed ACLF during the course of hospitalization (AD evolving to ACLF group). The AD group had significantly lower 28-d (9.0%) and 90-d (18.3%) mortality as compared to the AD evolving to ACLF group and to the ACLF group (both P < 0.001). On the other hand, 28-d and 90-d mortalities were not significantly different between AD evolving to ACLF group and ACLF group (P = 0.542 and P = 0.708, respectively). Among patients with ACLF, at 28 d from the diagnosis, CLIF-C ACLF was the only score able to predict mortality significantly better than the reference line, with an AUC (95%CI) of 0.71 (95%CI: 0.54-0.88, P = 0.021). Among patients with AD, all prognostic scores performed significantly better than the reference line regarding 28-d mortality, presenting with similar AUCs: CLIF-C AD score 0.75 (95%CI: 0.63-0.88), CP score 0.72 (95%CI: 0.59-0.85), MELD score 0.75 (95%CI: 0.61-0.90), MELD-Na score 0.76 (95%CI: 0.61-0.90), and CLIF-C OF score 0.74 (95%CI: 0.60-0.88). The same occurred concerning AUCs for 90-d mortality: CLIF-C AD score 0.70 (95%CI: 0.57-0.82), CP score 0.73 (95%CI: 0.62-0.84), MELD score 0.71 (95%CI: 0.59-0.83), MELD-Na score 0.73 (95%CI: 0.62-0.84), and CLIF-C OF score 0.65 (95%CI: 0.52-0.78).This study demonstrated that CLIF-C ACLF is the best available score for the prediction of 28-d mortality among patients with ACLF. CLIF-C AD score is also useful for the prediction of mortality among cirrhotic patients with AD not fulfilling diagnostic criteria for ACLF, but it was not superior to other well-established prognostic scores.

Project description:Background: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a frequent complication in patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) and is associated with high rates of mortality. We aimed to estimate serum high mobility group protein 1 (HMGB1) levels in hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure patients and analyze their clinical value in the development and outcomes of Acute kidney injury. Methods: A total of 251 consecutive patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure were enrolled in this retrospective study. Using the International Club of Ascites staging criteria of Acute kidney injury, 153 patients developed Acute kidney injury. The clinical data of patients were collected and serum levels of high mobility group protein 1 were measured by ELISA. All patients were followed up until death or for a minimum of 3 months. Early prediction and prognostic implications of high mobility group protein 1 in Hepatitis B Virus-Related Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure Patients with Acute Kidney Injury were investigated in different cohorts, including a propensity score-matched ACLF cohort. Results: Among all individuals with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure, the incidence of Acute kidney injury was 61.0% (153/251). The patients who developed stage 2/3 Acute kidney injury showed the highest high mobility group protein 1 levels, followed by those who developed stage 1 Acute kidney injury, and those without Acute kidney injury showed the lowest high mobility group protein 1 levels. Moreover, high mobility group protein 1 levels were significantly higher in non-survivors than in survivors among hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure patients with Acute kidney injury. Furthermore, analysis of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) indicated that serum high mobility group protein 1 levels (pre-matching: AUC = 0.740; post-matching: AUC = 0.661) may be a potential predictive factor for Acute kidney injury development and that high mobility group protein 1 (AUC = 0.727) might be a reliable biomarker for prognosis in patients with Acute kidney injury. Conclusion: In patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure, Acute kidney injury is universal. Acute kidney injury and its stages negatively influence the 90-day transplant-free mortality rate. Serum high mobility group protein 1 levels can serve as a positive predictor of Acute kidney injury development, and high mobility group protein 1 might also be a prognostic biomarker for Acute kidney injury among hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure patients.

Project description:BACKGROUNDHBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) is hallmarked by high short-term mortality rates, calling for accurate prognostic biomarkers for initial risk stratification.METHODSThree tandem mass tag-labeled (TMT-labeled) quantitative proteomic studies were performed on 10 patients with HBV-related acute hepatic decompensation and on 20 patients with HBV-ACLF. Candidate biomarkers were preliminarily verified in a cross-sectional cohort (n = 144) and further confirmed in 2 prospective cohorts (n = 207 and n = 148).RESULTSPlasminogen, a potential prognostic biomarker for HBV-ACLF, was identified by TMT quantitative proteomics and preliminarily verified in the cross-sectional cohort. Further validation with a prospective cohort (n = 207) showed that plasminogen levels at admission were significantly lower (P < 0.001) in HBV-ACLF nonsurvivors than in survivors. The cumulative survival duration of patients with high plasminogen levels was significantly longer (P < 0.001) than that of patients with low plasminogen levels. During hospitalization, plasminogen levels significantly decreased (P = 0.008) in the deterioration group but significantly increased (P < 0.001) in the improvement group. Additionally, plasminogen levels gradually increased in survivors but gradually decreased in nonsurvivors. The P5 score, a prognostic panel incorporating plasminogen levels, hepatic encephalopathy occurrence, age, international normalized ratio (INR), and total bilirubin, was significantly superior to the Child-Pugh, Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD), Chronic Liver Failure Consortium ACLF (CLIF-C ACLF), Chinese Group on the Study of Severe Hepatitis B (COSSH), and HINT (a prognostic score based on hepatic encephalopathy occurrence, INR, neutrophil count, and thyroid-stimulating hormone) scores (all P < 0.05). The performances of the plasminogen level and P5 score were validated in a second multicenter, prospective cohort (n = 148).CONCLUSIONSPlasminogen is a promising prognostic biomarker for HBV-ACLF, and sequential plasminogen measurements could profile the clinical course of HBV-ACLF. P5 is a high-performance prognostic score for HBV-ACLF.FUNDINGThe National Key Research and Development Program (2017YFC1200204); the National Natural Science Foundation of China (81400589, 81600497); the Foundation for Innovative Research Groups of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (81121002); the Chinese High-Tech Research and Development Programs (2012AA020204); the National S&T Major Project (2012ZX10002004); and the Zhejiang Provincial Medicine and Health Science and Technology Project (2016147735).

Dataset Information

Assessing the prognostic scores for the prediction of the mortality of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure: a retrospective study.

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Assessing the prognostic scores for the prediction of the mortality of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure: a retrospective study.

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