Dataset Information

Variation and conservation implications of the effectiveness of anti-bear interventions.

ABSTRACT: Human-bear conflicts triggered by nuisance behaviour in public places and damage to livestock, crops, beehives and trees are among the main threats to bear populations globally. The effectiveness of interventions used to minimize bear-caused damage is insufficiently known and comparative reviews are lacking. We conducted a meta-analysis of 77 cases from 48 publications and used the relative risk of damage to compare the effectiveness of non-invasive interventions, invasive management (translocations) and lethal control (shooting) against bears. We show that the most effective interventions are electric fences (95% confidence interval?=?79.2-100% reduction in damage), calving control (100%) and livestock replacement (99.8%), but the latter two approaches were applied in only one case each and need more testing. Deterrents varied widely in their effectiveness (13.7-79.5%) and we recommend applying these during the peak periods of damage infliction. We found shooting (- 34.2 to 100%) to have a short-term positive effect with its effectiveness decreasing significantly and linearly over time. We did not find relationships between bear density and intervention effectiveness, possibly due to differences in spatial scales at which they were measured (large scales for densities and local fine scales for effectiveness). We appeal for more effectiveness studies and their scientific publishing in regard to under-represented conflict species and regions.

SUBMITTER: Khorozyan I

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7501236 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Variation and conservation implications of the effectiveness of anti-bear interventions.

Khorozyan Igor I Waltert Matthias M

Scientific reports 20200918 1

Human-bear conflicts triggered by nuisance behaviour in public places and damage to livestock, crops, beehives and trees are among the main threats to bear populations globally. The effectiveness of interventions used to minimize bear-caused damage is insufficiently known and comparative reviews are lacking. We conducted a meta-analysis of 77 cases from 48 publications and used the relative risk of damage to compare the effectiveness of non-invasive interventions, invasive management (translocat ...[more]

PMID: 32948793

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Project description:BackgroundEvidence-based conservation is urgently needed to identify, apply and promote effective interventions for mitigation of threats and recovery of the natural environment. Estimation of intervention effectiveness is subject to robust study design and statistical analysis, and much progress is documented in these fields. In contrast, little is understood about the accuracy and biases (underestimation and overestimation) of different effectiveness metrics and how they are affected by sample size.MethodsIn this study, a dataset (n = 500 cases) consisting of random, positive, integer numbers was simulated to produce frequency input data for the 2 × 2 contingency table. For each case, three metrics of the relative risk, odds ratio and the magnitude of change were calculated, their disparity was estimated and the characteristics of treatment (with intervention) and control (without intervention) samples significantly affecting this disparity were studied by means of linear regression. Further, four case studies from different conservation interventions are provided to support the results.ResultsThe study has shown that the relative risk and the magnitude of change produce identical estimates of intervention effectiveness only when treatment and control samples are equal, or when the number of target outcomes (e.g., number of livestock killed by predators) in treatment sample reaches zero. In other situations, the magnitude of change gives overestimates or underestimates, depending on relationships between treatment and control sample sizes. The table summarizing the conditions of equalities and biases between these two metrics is provided. These conditions are valid for both reduction-aimed interventions reducing negative target outcomes (e.g., livestock protection to reduce livestock losses to predators) and for addition-aimed interventions increasing positive target outcomes (e.g., establishment of protected areas to increase species presence). No significant effects on the odds ratio were found.ConclusionResearchers should set equal treatment and control sample sizes so that to produce identical estimates of intervention effectiveness by the relative risk and the magnitude of change. Otherwise, these estimates are biased if produced by the magnitude of change and the relative risk should be used instead. As setting equal treatment and control samples can be impractical, I encourage researchers and practitioners to use the relative risk in estimation of intervention effectiveness. This will not take additional efforts as both metrics are calculated from the same contingency table. Treatment and control sample sizes, along with their sub-samples affected and not by an intervention, should be explicitly reported by researchers to allow independent evaluation of intervention effectiveness. This approach can help obtain more accurate information on intervention effectiveness for making better decisions in conservation actions.

Project description:The abundance and distribution of large carnivores in Europe have been historically reduced. Their recovery requires multilevel coordination, especially regarding transboundary populations. Here, we apply nuclear and mitochondrial genetic markers to test for admixture level and its impact on population genetic structure of contemporary brown bears (Ursus arctos) from the Eastern, Southern, and Western Carpathians. Carpathian Mountains (Europe). Nearly 400 noninvasive brown bear DNA samples from the Western (Poland) and Eastern Carpathians (Bieszczady Mountains in Poland, Slovakia, Ukraine) were collected. Together with DNA isolates from Slovakia and Romania, they were analyzed using the set of eight microsatellite loci and two mtDNA regions (control region and cytochrome b). A set of 113 individuals with complete genotypes was used to investigate genetic differentiation across national boundaries, genetic structuring within and between populations, and movement between populations. Transboundary brown bear subpopulations (Slovakia and Poland) did not show significant internal genetic structure, and thus were treated as cohesive units. All brown bears from the Western Carpathians carried mitochondrial haplotypes from the Eastern lineage, while the Western lineage prevailed in the brown bears from the Bieszczady Mountains. Despite similar levels of microsatellite variability, we documented significant differentiation among the studied populations for nuclear markers and mtDNA. We also detected male-biased and asymmetrical movement into the Bieszczady Mountains population from the Western Carpathians. Our findings suggest initial colonization of the Western Carpathians by brown bears possessing mtDNA from the Eastern lineage. Genetic structuring among populations at microsatellite loci could be a result of human-mediated alterations. Detected asymmetric gene flow suggests ongoing expansion from more abundant populations into the Bieszczady Mountains and thus supports a metapopulation model. The knowledge concerning this complex pattern can be implemented in a joint Carpathian brown bear management plan that should allow population mixing by dispersing males.

Project description:As human pressures on the environment continue to spread and intensify, effective conservation interventions are direly needed to prevent threats, reduce conflicts, and recover populations and landscapes in a liaison between science and conservation. It is practically important to discriminate between true and false (or misperceived) effectiveness of interventions as false perceptions may shape a wrong conservation agenda and lead to inappropriate decisions and management actions. This study used the false positive risk (FPR) to estimate the rates of misperceived effectiveness of electric fences (overstated if reported as effective but actually ineffective based on FPR; understated otherwise), explain their causes and propose recommendations on how to improve the representation of true effectiveness. Electric fences are widely applied to reduce damage to fenced assets, such as livestock and beehives, or increase survival of fenced populations. The analysis of 109 cases from 50 publications has shown that the effectiveness of electric fences was overstated in at least one-third of cases, from 31.8% at FPR = 0.2 (20% risk) to 51.1% at FPR = 0.05 (5% risk, true effectiveness). In contrast, understatement reduced from 23.8% to 9.5% at these thresholds of FPR. This means that truly effective applications of electric fences were only 48.9% of all cases reported as effective, but truly ineffective cases were 90.5%, implying that the effectiveness of electric fences was heavily overstated. The main reasons of this bias were the lack of statistical testing or improper reporting of test results (63.3% of cases) and interpretation of marginally significant results (p < 0.05, p < 0.1 and p around 0.05) as indicators of effectiveness (10.1%). In conclusion, FPR is an important tool for estimating true effectiveness of conservation interventions and its application is highly recommended to disentangle true and false effectiveness for planning appropriate conservation actions. Researchers are encouraged to calculate FPR, publish its constituent statistics (especially treatment and control sample sizes) and explicitly provide test results with p values. It is suggested to call the effectiveness "true" if FPR < 0.05, "suggestive" if 0.05 ≤ FPR < 0.2 and "false" if FPR ≥ 0.2.

Project description:During the long history of biological evolution, genome structures have undergone enormous changes. Nevertheless, some traits or vestiges of the primordial genome (defined as the most primitive nucleic acid genome for life on earth in this paper) may remain in modern genetic systems. It is of great importance to find these traits or vestiges for the study of the origin and evolution of genomes. As the shorter is a sequence, the less probable it would be modified during genome evolution. And if mutated, it would be easier to reappear at the same site or another site. Consequently, the genomic frequencies of very short nucleotide sequences, such as dinucleotides, would have considerable chances to be conserved during billions of years of evolution. Prokaryotic genomes are very diverse and with a wide range of GC content. Therefore, in order to find traits or vestiges of the primordial genome remained in modern genetic systems, we have studied the characteristics of dinucleotide frequencies across bacterial and archaeal genomes. We analyzed the dinucleotide frequency patterns of the whole-genome sequences from more than 1300 prokaryotic species (bacterial and archaeal genomes available as of December 2012). The results show that the frequencies of the dinucleotides AC, AG, CA, CT, GA, GT, TC, and TG are well-conserved across various genomes, while the frequencies of other dinucleotides vary considerably among species. The dinucleotide frequency conservation/variation pattern seems to correlate with the distributions of dinucleotides throughout a genome and across genomes. Further analysis indicates that the phenomenon would be determined by strand symmetry of genomic sequences (the second parity rule) and GC content variations among genomes. We discussed some possible origins of strand symmetry. And we propose that the phenomenon of frequency conservation of some dinucleotides may provide insights into the genomic composition of the primordial genetic system.

Project description:The Pyrenean rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta pyrenaica) lives at one of the southernmost limits of the ptarmigan range. Their small population sizes and the impacts of global changes are limiting factors in the conservation of this threatened subspecies. An effective conservation policy requires precise basic knowledge of a species' food and habitat requirements, information that is practically non-existent for this Pyrenean population. Here, we describe the diet of a ptarmigan population in the Eastern Pyrenees, the environmental factors influencing its variability and the relationship between diet floristic composition and quality. Diet composition was determined by microhistological analysis of faeces and diet quality was estimated from free-urate faecal N content. Our results show that grouse diet is based mainly on arctic-alpine shrubs of the Ericaceae family, as well as dwarf willows (Salix spp.) and Dryas octopetala. The most frequently consumed plant species was Rhododendron ferrugineum, but its abundance in the diet was negatively related to the diet nitrogen content. Conversely, the abundance of Salix spp., grass leaves and arthropods increased the nitrogen content of the diet. Seasonality associated with snow-melting contributed the most to variability in the Pyrenean ptarmigan diet, differentiating winter from spring/summer diets. The latter was characterised by a high consumption of dwarf willows, flowers, arthropods and tender forb leaves. Geographic area and sex-age class influenced diet variability to a lesser extent. Current temperature increases in the Pyrenees due to global warming may reduce the persistence and surface area of snow-packs where preferred plants for rock ptarmigan usually grow, thus reducing food availability. The high consumption of Rh. ferrugineum characterised the diet of the Pyrenean population. Given the toxicity of this plant for most herbivores, its potential negative effect on Pyrenean ptarmigan populations should be evaluated.

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Variation and conservation implications of the effectiveness of anti-bear interventions.

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Variation and conservation implications of the effectiveness of anti-bear interventions.

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