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Predicting the evolution and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Portugal.

ABSTRACT: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a worldwide pandemic that has been affecting Portugal since 2 March 2020. The Portuguese government has been making efforts to contradict the exponential growth through social isolation measures. We have developed a mathematical model to predict the impact of such measures in the number of infected cases and peak of infection. We estimate the peak to be around 2 million infected cases by the beginning of May if no additional measures are taken. The model shows that current measures effectively isolated 25-30% of the population, contributing to some reduction on the infection peak. Importantly, our simulations show that the infection burden can be further reduced with higher isolation degree, providing information for a second intervention.

SUBMITTER: Pais RJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7503179 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting the evolution and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Portugal.

Pais Ricardo J RJ Taveira Nuno N

F1000Research 20200423

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a worldwide pandemic that has been affecting Portugal since 2 March 2020. The Portuguese government has been making efforts to contradict the exponential growth through lockdown, social distancing and the usage of masks. However, these measures have been implemented without controlling the compliance degree and how much is necessary to achieve an effective control. To address this issue, we developed a mathematical model to estimate the strength of Governme ...[more]

PMID: 32983416

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Project description:Objective/backgroundTo describe and characterize insomnia symptoms and nightmare profiles in Portugal during the first six weeks of a national lockdown due to COVID-19.Patients/methodsAn open cohort study was conducted to collect information of the general population during the first wave of SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 pandemic in Portugal. We analyzed data from 5011 participants (≥16 years) who answered a weekly questionnaire about their well-being. Two questions about the frequency of insomnia and nightmares about COVID-19 were consecutively applied during six weeks (March-May 2020). Latent class analysis was conducted and different insomnia and nightmare profiles were identified. Associations between individual characteristics and both profiles were estimated using odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI).ResultsFive insomnia (No insomnia, Stable-mild, Decreasing-moderate, Stable-severe, Increasing-severe) and three nightmares profiles (Stable-mild, Stable-moderate, Stable-severe) were identified. Being female, younger, perceiving their income as insufficient and feelings of fear towards COVID-19 were associated with higher odds of insomnia (Women: OR = 6.98 95%CI: 4.18-11.64; ≥60 years: OR = 0.30 95%CI: 0.18-0.53; Insufficient income: adjusted OR (aOR) = 8.413 95%CI: 3.93-16.84; Often presenting fear of being infected with SARS-CoV-2 infection: aOR = 9.13 95%CI: 6.36-13.11), and nightmares (Women: OR = 2.60 95%CI: 1.74-3.86; ≥60 years: OR = 0.45 95%CI: 0.28-0.74; Insufficient income: aOR = 2.60 95%CI: 1.20-5.20; Often/almost always presenting fear of being infected with SARS-CoV-2 infection: aOR = 6.62 95%CI: 5.01-8.74). Having a diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 virus infection was associated with worse patterns of nightmares about the pandemic.ConclusionsSocial and psychological individual factors are important characteristics to consider in the development of therapeutic strategies to support people with sleep problems during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Dataset Information

Predicting the evolution and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Portugal.

Publications

Predicting the evolution and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Portugal.

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