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Predicting the evolution and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Portugal.

ABSTRACT: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a worldwide pandemic that has been affecting Portugal since 2 March 2020. The Portuguese government has been making efforts to contradict the exponential growth through social isolation measures. We have developed a mathematical model to predict the impact of such measures in the number of infected cases and peak of infection. We estimate the peak to be around 2 million infected cases by the beginning of May if no additional measures are taken. The model shows that current measures effectively isolated 25-30% of the population, contributing to some reduction on the infection peak. Importantly, our simulations show that the infection burden can be further reduced with higher isolation degree, providing information for a second intervention.

SUBMITTER: Pais RJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7503179 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting the evolution and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Portugal.

Pais Ricardo J RJ Taveira Nuno N

F1000Research 20200423

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a worldwide pandemic that has been affecting Portugal since 2 March 2020. The Portuguese government has been making efforts to contradict the exponential growth through lockdown, social distancing and the usage of masks. However, these measures have been implemented without controlling the compliance degree and how much is necessary to achieve an effective control. To address this issue, we developed a mathematical model to estimate the strength of Governme ...[more]

PMID: 32983416

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