Dataset Information

An Index for Lifting Social Distancing During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Algorithm Recommendation for Lifting Social Distancing.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Implementing and lifting social distancing (LSD) is an urgent global issue during the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly when the travel ban is lifted to revive international businesses and economies. However, when and whether LSD can be considered is subject to the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the recovery rate, and the case-fatality rate. It is imperative to provide real-time assessment of three factors to guide LSD. OBJECTIVE:A simple LSD index was developed for health decision makers to do real-time assessment of COVID-19 at the global, country, region, and community level. METHODS:Data on the retrospective cohort of 186 countries with three factors were retrieved from a publicly available repository from January to early July. A simple index for guiding LSD was measured by the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases and recoveries, and the case-fatality rate was envisaged. If the LSD index was less than 1, LSD can be considered. The dynamic changes of the COVID-19 pandemic were evaluated to assess whether and when health decision makers allowed for LSD and when to reimplement social distancing after resurgences of the epidemic. RESULTS:After large-scale outbreaks in a few countries before mid-March (prepandemic phase), the global weekly LSD index peaked at 4.27 in March and lasted until mid-June (pandemic phase), during which most countries were affected and needed to take various social distancing measures. Since, the value of LSD has gradually declined to 0.99 on July 5 (postpandemic phase), at which 64.7% (120/186) of countries and regions had an LSD<1 with the decile between 0 and 1 to refine risk stratification by countries. The LSD index decreased to 1 in about 115 days. In addition, we present the results of dynamic changes of the LSD index for the world and for each country and region with different time windows from January to July 5. The results of the LSD index on the resurgence of the COVID-19 epidemic in certain regions and validation by other emerging infectious diseases are presented. CONCLUSIONS:This simple LSD index provides a quantitative assessment of whether and when to ease or implement social distancing to provide advice for health decision makers and travelers.

SUBMITTER: Chen SL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7505695 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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An Index for Lifting Social Distancing During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Algorithm Recommendation for Lifting Social Distancing.

Chen Sam Li-Sheng SL Yen Amy Ming-Fang AM Lai Chao-Chih CC Hsu Chen-Yang CY Chan Chang-Chuan CC Chen Tony Hsiu-Hsi TH

Journal of medical Internet research 20200917 9

<h4>Background</h4>Implementing and lifting social distancing (LSD) is an urgent global issue during the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly when the travel ban is lifted to revive international businesses and economies. However, when and whether LSD can be considered is subject to the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the recovery rate, and the case-fatality rate. It is imperative to provide real-time assessment of three factors to guide LSD.<h4>Objective</h4>A simple LSD index was developed for health decisio ...[more]

PMID: 32886622

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Project description:Background During the COVID-19 pandemic, many humorous videos on how to practice social distancing appeared on social media. However, the effect of using humor as a crisis communication strategy to persuade people to conform to social distancing rules is not known. Objective Drawing on the literature on humorous message framing and crisis communication, this research explores the effectiveness of a humorous message in communicating social distancing rules in two crisis severity phases (low vs. high severity) and also evaluates how humor affects individuals’ online and offline engagement intentions during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods A 2 (message framing: humorous vs. non-humorous) x 2 (crisis severity phase: low vs. high) between-subjects design experiment was conducted to test the research questions during the first weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic in China from January 30 to February 2, 2020. Results The results showed that the severity of the phase of a health crisis can significantly affect stakeholders’ online and offline responses toward the disease. More specifically, in a low severity phase, humor led to increased source likability for the message, and more online and offline engagement intentions. However, no differences between a humorous and non-humorous message in perceived risk were observed. Whereas, in a high severity crisis phase, humor reduced individuals’ offline engagement intentions and a decrease in perceived risk, no significant difference was found between a humorous and non-humorous message on source likeability. Conclusion Humor can motivate both more online engagement and offline protective action intention when the crisis severity phase is low, while when crisis severity soars, a non-humorous message should be more desirable. More specifically, using humor in communicating information about an infectious disease can enhance the spokesperson’s likeability in a low severity phase, and also helps to spread health information to a larger audience. While, the negative side of using humor in communicating an infectious disease appears in severe crisis phases, as it then decreased the public’s perception of risk, and triggers less protective actions. Going beyond previous research, this study recognized that crisis severity changes in different phases of the spread of infectious disease, thereby providing actionable strategy selections for crisis practitioners in a dynamic communication environment.

Project description:ImportanceNeonatal mortality is a major public health concern that was potentially impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. To prepare for future health crises, it is important to investigate whether COVID-19 pandemic-related interventions were associated with changes in neonatal mortality.ObjectiveTo investigate whether social distancing during the pandemic was associated with a higher neonatal mortality rate.Design, setting, and participantsThis cohort study examined maternal-linked birth and infant death records from the National Center for Health Statistics, a population-level US database, from 2016 through 2020. The mortality rates were correlated using machine learning-based autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models with the social distancing index (SDI). The reference period was January 2016 through February 2020, and the pandemic period was March through December 2020. Statistical analysis was performed from March 2023 to May 2024.ExposuresSDI, computed from 6 mobility metrics.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome was neonatal mortality rate, defined as death at age less than 28 days.ResultsThe study included 18 011 173 births, of which 15 136 596 were from the reference period (7 753 555 [51.22%] male; 11 643 094 [76.92%] with maternal age of 20 to 34 years) and 2 874 577 were from the pandemic period (1 472 539 [51.23%] male; 2 190 158 [76.19%] with maternal age of 20 to 34 years). Through ARIMA-adjusted analyses, accounting for the declining mortality trend in the reference period, the mortality rates during the pandemic period did not significantly differ from the expected rates. SDI did not exhibit significant correlations with neonatal mortality (unadjusted: correlation coefficient [CC], 0.14 [95% CI, -0.53 to 0.70]; ARIMA adjusted: CC, 0.29 [95% CI, -0.41 to 0.77]), early neonatal mortality (unadjusted: CC, 0.33 [95% CI, -0.37 to 0.79]; ARIMA adjusted: CC, 0.45 [95% CI, -0.24 to 0.84]), and infant mortality (unadjusted: CC, -0.09 [95% CI, -0.68 to 0.57]; ARIMA adjusted: CC, 0.35 [95% CI, -0.35 to 0.80]). However, lag analyses found that SDI was associated with higher neonatal and early neonatal mortality rates with a 2-month lag period, but not with infant mortality rate. SDI was also associated with increases in 22-to-27 weeks' and 28-to-32 weeks' preterm delivery with a 1-month lag period.Conclusions and relevanceIn this population-level study of National Center for Health Statistics databases, neonatal, early neonatal, and infant mortality rates did not increase during the initial COVID-19 pandemic period. However, associations were observed between the pandemic period social distancing measures and higher rates of neonatal and early neonatal mortality, as well as preterm birth rate with a lag period, suggesting the importance of monitoring infant health outcomes following pandemic-related population behavior changes.

Dataset Information

An Index for Lifting Social Distancing During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Algorithm Recommendation for Lifting Social Distancing.

Publications

An Index for Lifting Social Distancing During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Algorithm Recommendation for Lifting Social Distancing.

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