Dataset Information

Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble.

ABSTRACT: Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere-only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950-2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10 m wind speeds by 2050.

SUBMITTER: Roberts MJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7507130 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble.

Roberts Malcolm John MJ Camp Joanne J Seddon Jon J Vidale Pier Luigi PL Hodges Kevin K Vannière Benoît B Mecking Jenny J Haarsma Rein R Bellucci Alessio A Scoccimarro Enrico E Caron Louis-Philippe LP Chauvin Fabrice F Terray Laurent L Valcke Sophie S Moine Marie-Pierre MP Putrasahan Dian D Roberts Christopher D CD Senan Retish R Zarzycki Colin C Ullrich Paul P Yamada Yohei Y Mizuta Ryo R Kodama Chihiro C Fu Dan D Zhang Qiuying Q Zhang Qiuying Q Danabasoglu Gokhan G Rosenbloom Nan N Wang Hong H Wu Lixin L

Geophysical research letters 20200716 14

Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere-only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950-2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in ...[more]

PMID: 32999514

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Project description:Identifying the species most vulnerable to extinction as a result of climate change is a necessary first step in mitigating biodiversity decline. Species distribution modeling (SDM) is a commonly used tool to assess potential climate change impacts on distributions of species. We use SDMs to predict geographic ranges for 243 birds of Australian tropical savannas, and to project changes in species richness and ranges under a future climate scenario between 1990 and 2080. Realistic predictions require recognition of the variability in species capacity to track climatically suitable environments. Here we assess the effect of dispersal on model results by using three approaches: full dispersal, no dispersal and a partial-dispersal scenario permitting species to track climate change at a rate of 30 km per decade. As expected, the projected distributions and richness patterns are highly sensitive to the dispersal scenario. Projected future range sizes decreased for 66% of species if full dispersal was assumed, but for 89% of species when no dispersal was assumed. However, realistic future predictions should not assume a single dispersal scenario for all species and as such, we assigned each species to the most appropriate dispersal category based on individual mobility and habitat specificity; this permitted the best estimates of where species will be in the future. Under this "realistic" dispersal scenario, projected ranges sizes decreased for 67% of species but showed that migratory and tropical-endemic birds are predicted to benefit from climate change with increasing distributional area. Richness hotspots of tropical savanna birds are expected to move, increasing in southern savannas and southward along the east coast of Australia, but decreasing in the arid zone. Understanding the complexity of effects of climate change on species' range sizes by incorporating dispersal capacities is a crucial step toward developing adaptation policies for the conservation of vulnerable species.

Dataset Information

Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble.

Publications

Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble.

Similar Datasets

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