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Including Social and Behavioral Determinants in Predictive Models: Trends, Challenges, and Opportunities.

ABSTRACT: In an era of accelerated health information technology capability, health care organizations increasingly use digital data to predict outcomes such as emergency department use, hospitalizations, and health care costs. This trend occurs alongside a growing recognition that social and behavioral determinants of health (SBDH) influence health and medical care use. Consequently, health providers and insurers are starting to incorporate new SBDH data sources into a wide range of health care prediction models, although existing models that use SBDH variables have not been shown to improve health care predictions more than models that use exclusively clinical variables. In this viewpoint, we review the rationale behind the push to integrate SBDH data into health care predictive models and explore the technical, strategic, and ethical challenges faced as this process unfolds across the United States. We also offer several recommendations to overcome these challenges to reach the promise of SBDH predictive analytics to improve health and reduce health care disparities.

SUBMITTER: Tan M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7509627 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Including Social and Behavioral Determinants in Predictive Models: Trends, Challenges, and Opportunities.

Tan Marissa M Hatef Elham E Taghipour Delaram D Vyas Kinjel K Kharrazi Hadi H Gottlieb Laura L Weiner Jonathan J

JMIR medical informatics 20200908 9

In an era of accelerated health information technology capability, health care organizations increasingly use digital data to predict outcomes such as emergency department use, hospitalizations, and health care costs. This trend occurs alongside a growing recognition that social and behavioral determinants of health (SBDH) influence health and medical care use. Consequently, health providers and insurers are starting to incorporate new SBDH data sources into a wide range of health care predictio ...[more]

PMID: 32897240

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Project description:BackgroundRisk models in the private insurance setting may systematically underpredict in the socially disadvantaged. In this study, we sought to determine whether US minority Medicare beneficiaries had disproportionately low costs compared with their clinical outcomes and whether adding social determinants of health (SDOH) into risk prediction models improves prediction accuracy.Methods and resultsRetrospective observational cohort study of 2016 to 2017 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey data (n=3614) linked to Medicare fee-for-service claims. Logistic and linear regressions were used to determine the relationship between race/ethnicity and annual costs of care, all-cause hospitalization, cardiovascular hospitalization, and death. We calculated the observed-to-expected (O:E) ratios for all outcomes under 4 risk models: (1) age+sex, (2) model 1+clinical comorbidity adjustment, (3) model 2+SDOH, and (4) SDOH alone. Our sample was 44% male and 11% black or Hispanic. Among minorities, adverse clinical outcomes were inversely related to cost. After multivariable adjustment, blacks/Hispanics had higher rates of cardiovascular hospitalization (incidence rate ratio, 1.78; P=0.012) but similar annual costs ($-336, P=0.77) compared with whites. Among whites, models 1 to 4 all showed similar O:E ratios, suggesting high accuracy in risk prediction using current models. Among minorities, adjustment for age, sex, and comorbidities underpredicted all-cause hospitalization by 20% (O:E, 1.20) and cardiovascular hospitalization by 70% (O:E, 1.70) and overpredicted death by 21% (O:E, 0.79); adding SDOH brought O:E near 1 for all outcomes. Among both groups, the SDOH risk model alone performed with equal or superior accuracy to the model based on clinical comorbidities.ConclusionsA paradoxical relationship was observed between clinical outcomes and costs among racial and ethnic minorities. Because of systematic differences in access to care, cost may not be an appropriate surrogate for predicting clinical risk among vulnerable populations. Adjustment for SDOH improves the accuracy of risk models among racial and ethnic minorities and could guide use of prevention strategies.

Dataset Information

Including Social and Behavioral Determinants in Predictive Models: Trends, Challenges, and Opportunities.

Publications

Including Social and Behavioral Determinants in Predictive Models: Trends, Challenges, and Opportunities.

Similar Datasets

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