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Developing a Health Impact Model for Adult Lead Exposure and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Lead (Pb) is a highly toxic pollutant. Evidence suggests it is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD)-related mortality. OBJECTIVES:We present a rigorous approach for identifying concentration-response functions that relate adult Pb exposures to CVD mortality to inform a health impact model (HIM). We then use the model in a proof-of-concept example. METHODS:Building on previously conducted government literature reviews and a de novo supplemental literature review, we compiled and evaluated the available data on Pb and CVD mortality in humans. We applied a set of predefined selection criteria to identify studies that would be most useful in understanding the impact of Pb exposure on CVD mortality risk in adults. Once we identified the studies, we derived a HIM and used each study's concentration-response function in a proof-of-concept example. RESULTS:Our literature search identified 15 studies for full-text review. Of those 15 studies, 4 fit our criteria for use in the HIM. Using population and CVD mortality rates for 40- to 80-y-olds in 2014, we estimated that 34,000-99,000 deaths have been avoided due to the lowering of blood Pb levels from 1999 to 2014. Based on these values we estimated that approximately 16%-46% of the decreased CVD-related death rate from 1999 to 2014 may be attributable to decreased blood Pb levels. CONCLUSION:Our results demonstrate that decreases in Pb exposure can result in large benefits for the adult population. We have provided a HIM that can be used in a variety of applications from burden-of-disease estimates to regulatory impact assessments and have demonstrated its sensitivity to the choice of concentration-response function. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP6552.

SUBMITTER: Brown L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7510336 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Developing a Health Impact Model for Adult Lead Exposure and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality.

Brown Lauren L Lynch Meghan M Belova Anna A Klein Ryan R Chiger Andrea A

Environmental health perspectives 20200923 9

<h4>Background</h4>Lead (Pb) is a highly toxic pollutant. Evidence suggests it is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD)-related mortality.<h4>Objectives</h4>We present a rigorous approach for identifying concentration-response functions that relate adult Pb exposures to CVD mortality to inform a health impact model (HIM). We then use the model in a proof-of-concept example.<h4>Methods</h4>Building on previously conducted government literature reviews and a <i>de novo</i> supplemental lite ...[more]

PMID: 32965128

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Project description:ImportanceMillions of adults now entering middle age were exposed to high levels of lead, a developmental neurotoxin, as children. Although childhood lead exposure has been linked to disrupted behavioral development, the long-term consequences for adult mental and behavioral health have not been fully characterized.ObjectiveTo examine whether childhood lead exposure is associated with greater psychopathology across the life course and difficult adult personality traits.Design, setting, and participantsThis prospective cohort study was based on a population-representative birth cohort of individuals born between April 1, 1972, and March 31, 1973, in Dunedin, New Zealand, the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study. Members were followed up in December 2012 when they were 38 years of age. Data analysis was performed from March 14, 2018, to October 24, 2018.ExposuresChildhood lead exposure ascertained as blood lead levels measured at 11 years of age. Blood lead levels were unrelated to family socioeconomic status.Main outcomes and measuresPrimary outcomes were adult mental health disorder symptoms assessed through clinical interview at 18, 21, 26, 32, and 38 years of age and transformed through confirmatory factor analysis into continuous measures of general psychopathology and internalizing, externalizing, and thought disorder symptoms (all standardized to a mean [SD] of 100 [15]) and adult personality assessed through informant report using the Big Five Personality Inventory (assessing neuroticism, extraversion, openness to experience, agreeableness, and conscientiousness) at 26, 32, and 38 years of age (all scores standardized to a mean [SD] of 0 [1]). Hypotheses were formulated after data collection; an analysis plan was posted in advance.ResultsOf 1037 original study members, 579 (55.8%) were tested for lead exposure at 11 years of age (311 [53.7%] male). The mean (SD) blood lead level was 11.08 (4.96) μg/dL. After adjusting for study covariates, each 5-μg/dL increase in childhood blood lead level was associated with a 1.34-point increase (95% CI, 0.11-2.57; P = .03) in general psychopathology, driven by internalizing (b = 1.41; 95% CI, 0.19-2.62; P = .02) and thought disorder (b = 1.30; 95% CI, 0.06-2.54; P = .04) symptoms. Each 5-μg/dL increase in childhood blood lead level was also associated with a 0.10-SD increase in neuroticism (95% CI, 0.02-0.08; P = .02), a 0.09-SD decrease in agreeableness (95% CI, -0.18 to -0.01; P = .03), and a 0.14-SD decrease in conscientiousness (95% CI, -0.25 to -0.03; P = .01). There were no statistically significant associations with informant-rated extraversion (b = -0.09; 95% CI, -0.17 to 0.004; P = .06) and openness to experience (b = -0.07; 95% CI, -0.17 to 0.03; P = .15).Conclusions and relevanceIn this multidecade, longitudinal study of lead-exposed children, higher childhood blood lead level was associated with greater psychopathology across the life course and difficult adult personality traits. Childhood lead exposure may have long-term consequences for adult mental health and personality.

Project description:BackgroundFew simulation models have incorporated the interplay of diabetes, obesity, and cardiovascular disease (CVD); their upstream lifestyle and biological risk factors; and their downstream effects on health disparities and economic consequences.MethodsWe developed and validated a US Diabetes, Obesity, Cardiovascular Disease Microsimulation (DOC-M) model that incorporates demographic, clinical, and lifestyle risk factors to jointly predict overall and racial-ethnic groups-specific obesity, diabetes, CVD, and cause-specific mortality for the US adult population aged 40 to 79 y at baseline. An individualized health care cost prediction model was further developed and integrated. This model incorporates nationally representative data on baseline demographics, lifestyle, health, and cause-specific mortality; dynamic changes in modifiable risk factors over time; and parameter uncertainty using probabilistic distributions. Validation analyses included assessment of 1) population-level risk calibration and 2) individual-level risk discrimination. To illustrate the application of the DOC-M model, we evaluated the long-term cost-effectiveness of a national produce prescription program.ResultsComparing the 15-y model-predicted population risk of primary outcomes among the 2001-2002 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) cohort with the observed prevalence from age-matched cross-sectional 2003-2016 NHANES cohorts, calibration performance was strong based on observed-to-expected ratio and calibration plot analysis. In most cases, Brier scores fell below 0.0004, indicating a low overall prediction error. Using the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis cohorts, the c-statistics for assessing individual-level risk discrimination were 0.85 to 0.88 for diabetes, 0.93 to 0.95 for obesity, 0.74 to 0.76 for CVD history, and 0.78 to 0.81 for all-cause mortality, both overall and in three racial-ethnic groups. Open-source code for the model was posted at https://github.com/food-price/DOC-M-Model-Development-and-Validation.ConclusionsThe validated DOC-M model can be used to examine health, equity, and the economic impact of health policies and interventions on behavioral and clinical risk factors for obesity, diabetes, and CVD.HighlightsWe developed a novel microsimula'tion model for obesity, diabetes, and CVD, which intersect together and - critically for prevention and treatment interventions - share common lifestyle, biologic, and demographic risk factors.Validation analyses, including assessment of (1) population-level risk calibration and (2) individual-level risk discrimination, showed strong performance across the overall population and three major racial-ethnic groups for 6 outcomes (obesity, diabetes, CVD, and all-cause mortality, CVD- and DM-cause mortality)This paper provides a thorough explanation and documentation of the development and validation process of a novel microsimulation model, along with the open-source code (https://github.com/food-price/ DOCM_validation) for public use, to serve as a guide for future simulation model assessments, validation, and implementation.

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Developing a Health Impact Model for Adult Lead Exposure and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality.

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Developing a Health Impact Model for Adult Lead Exposure and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality.

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