Impact of Social Distancing Measures on Coronavirus Disease Healthcare Demand, Central Texas, USA.

ABSTRACT: Social distancing orders have been enacted worldwide to slow the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, reduce strain on healthcare systems, and prevent deaths. To estimate the impact of the timing and intensity of such measures, we built a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission that incorporates age-stratified risks and contact patterns and projects numbers of hospitalizations, patients in intensive care units, ventilator needs, and deaths within US cities. Focusing on the Austin metropolitan area of Texas, we found that immediate and extensive social distancing measures were required to ensure that COVID-19 cases did not exceed local hospital capacity by early May 2020. School closures alone hardly changed the epidemic curve. A 2-week delay in implementation was projected to accel

SUBMITTER: Wang X 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7510701 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature