Dataset Information

Second wave COVID-19 pandemics in Europe: a temporal playbook.

ABSTRACT: A second wave pandemic constitutes an imminent threat to society, with a potentially immense toll in terms of human lives and a devastating economic impact. We employ the epidemic Renormalisation Group (eRG) approach to pandemics, together with the first wave data for COVID-19, to efficiently simulate the dynamics of disease transmission and spreading across different European countries. The framework allows us to model, not only inter and extra European border control effects, but also the impact of social distancing for each country. We perform statistical analyses averaging on different level of human interaction across Europe and with the rest of the World. Our results are neatly summarised as an animation reporting the time evolution of the first and second waves of the European COVID-19 pandemic. Our temporal playbook of the second wave pandemic can be used by governments, financial markets, the industries and individual citizens, to efficiently time, prepare and implement local and global measures.

SUBMITTER: Cacciapaglia G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7511360 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Second wave COVID-19 pandemics in Europe: a temporal playbook.

Cacciapaglia Giacomo G Cot Corentin C Sannino Francesco F

Scientific reports 20200923 1

A second wave pandemic constitutes an imminent threat to society, with a potentially immense toll in terms of human lives and a devastating economic impact. We employ the epidemic Renormalisation Group (eRG) approach to pandemics, together with the first wave data for COVID-19, to efficiently simulate the dynamics of disease transmission and spreading across different European countries. The framework allows us to model, not only inter and extra European border control effects, but also the impa ...[more]

PMID: 32968181

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Project description:BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted Europe, resulting in a high caseload and deaths that varied by country. The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has breached the borders of Europe. Public health surveillance is necessary to inform policy and guide leaders.ObjectiveThis study aimed to provide advanced surveillance metrics for COVID-19 transmission that account for weekly shifts in the pandemic, speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence, to better understand countries at risk for explosive growth and those that are managing the pandemic effectively.MethodsWe performed a longitudinal trend analysis and extracted 62 days of COVID-19 data from public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in Europe as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R.ResultsNew COVID-19 cases slightly decreased from 158,741 (week 1, January 4-10, 2021) to 152,064 (week 2, January 11-17, 2021), and cumulative cases increased from 22,507,271 (week 1) to 23,890,761 (week 2), with a weekly increase of 1,383,490 between January 10 and January 17. France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom had the largest 7-day moving averages for new cases during week 1. During week 2, the 7-day moving average for France and Spain increased. From week 1 to week 2, the speed decreased (37.72 to 33.02 per 100,000), acceleration decreased (0.39 to -0.16 per 100,000), and jerk increased (-1.30 to 1.37 per 100,000).ConclusionsThe United Kingdom, Spain, and Portugal, in particular, are at risk for a rapid expansion in COVID-19 transmission. An examination of the European region suggests that there was a decrease in the COVID-19 caseload between January 4 and January 17, 2021. Unfortunately, the rates of jerk, which were negative for Europe at the beginning of the month, reversed course and became positive, despite decreases in speed and acceleration. Finally, the 7-day persistence rate was higher during week 2 than during week 1. These measures indicate that the second wave of the pandemic may be subsiding, but some countries remain at risk for new outbreaks and increased transmission in the absence of rapid policy responses.

Project description:Marissa Renardy and Denise Kirschner University of Michigan Medical School The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the patchwork nature of disease epidemics, with infection spread dynamics varying wildly across countries and across states within the US. These heteroge- neous patterns are also observed within individual states, with patches of concentrated outbreaks. Data is being generated daily at all of these spatial scales, and answers to questions regarded re- opening strategies are desperately needed. Mathematical modeling is useful in exactly these cases, and using modeling at a county scale may be valuable to further predict disease dynamics for the purposes of public health interventions. To explore this issue, we study and predict the spread of COVID-19 in Washtenaw County, MI, the home to University of Michigan, Eastern Michigan University, and Google, as well as serving as a sister city to Detroit, MI where there has been a serious outbreak. Here, we apply a discrete and stochastic network-based modeling framework allowing us to track every individual in the county. In this framework, we construct contact net- works based on synthetic population datasets specific for Washtenaw County that are derived from US Census datasets. We assign individuals to households, workplaces, schools, and group quarters (such as prisons). In addition, we assign casual contacts to each individual at random. Using this framework, we explicitly simulate Michigan-specific government-mandated workplace and school closures as well as social distancing measures. We also perform sensitivity analyses to identify key model parameters and mechanisms contributing to the observed disease burden in the three months following the first observed cases on COVID-19 in Michigan. We then consider several scenarios for relaxing restrictions and reopening workplaces to predict what actions would be most prudent. In particular, we consider the effects of 1) different timings for reopening, and 2) different levels of workplace vs. casual contact re-engagement. Through simulations and sensitivity analyses, we explore mechanisms driving magnitude and timing of a second wave of infections upon re-opening. This model can be adapted to other US counties using synthetic population databases and data specific to those regions.

Project description:The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the patchwork nature of disease epidemics, with infection spread dynamics varying wildly across countries and across states within the US. To explore this issue, we study and predict the spread of COVID-19 in Washtenaw County, MI, which is home to University of Michigan and Eastern Michigan University, and in close proximity to Detroit, MI, a major epicenter of the epidemic in Michigan. We apply a discrete and stochastic network-based modeling framework allowing us to track every individual in the county. In this framework, we construct contact networks based on synthetic population datasets specific for Washtenaw County that are derived from US Census datasets. We assign individuals to households, workplaces, schools, and group quarters (such as prisons or long term care facilities). In addition, we assign casual contacts to each individual at random. Using this framework, we explicitly simulate Michigan-specific government-mandated workplace and school closures as well as social distancing measures. We perform sensitivity analyses to identify key model parameters and mechanisms contributing to the observed disease burden in the three months following the first observed cases of COVID-19 in Michigan. We then consider several scenarios for relaxing restrictions and reopening workplaces to predict what actions would be most prudent. In particular, we consider the effects of 1) different timings for reopening, and 2) different levels of workplace vs. casual contact re-engagement. We find that delaying reopening does not reduce the magnitude of the second peak of cases, but only delays it. Reducing levels of casual contact, on the other hand, both delays and lowers the second peak. Through simulations and sensitivity analyses, we explore mechanisms driving the magnitude and timing of a second wave of infections upon re-opening. We find that the most significant factors are workplace and casual contacts and protective measures taken by infected individuals who have sought care. This model can be adapted to other US counties using synthetic population databases and data specific to those regions.

Dataset Information

Second wave COVID-19 pandemics in Europe: a temporal playbook.

Publications

Second wave COVID-19 pandemics in Europe: a temporal playbook.

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