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Preoperative Predictors of Biochemical Recurrence-Free Survival in High-Risk Prostate Cancer Following Radical Prostatectomy

ABSTRACT: Background: D'Amico high-risk prostate cancer (Pca) patients experience poor and heterogeneous oncological outcomes. This heterogeneity highlights a need to extensively explore factors associated with poor outcomes to guide decision-making. Objective: To assess predictors of biochemical recurrence (BCR)-free survival in high-risk patients following radical prostatectomy (RP), and subsequently establish a model predicting outcomes. Methods: We retrospectively identified D'Amico high-risk non-metastatic Pca patients who underwent RP between 2013 and 2019 in our hospital. We collected data including PSA level, clinical stage, biopsy Gleason score (GS), number of D'Amico high-risk factors (RF), the inflammatory status (Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio [NLR], derived NLR [dNLR], platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio [PLR] and LDH). Kaplan–Meier methods were used to analyze BCR-free survival. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using Cox proportional hazards model to evaluate the association between clinicopathological parameters and BCR-free survival. Results: The median follow-up time for the 101 patients' cohort was 26 months (range: 3–81 months). The number of RF (1RF vs. ?2RF), biopsy GS (<8 vs. ?8), clinical stage (?cT2c vs. >cT2c), pathological stage, and the presence of adverse pathological features were significant predictors of BCR (P < 0.05). Other parameters including inflammatory status (dNLR, NLR, PLR, and LDH) were not of predictive value. On multivariable analysis, biopsy GS (<8 vs. ?8; HR 2.439) and clinical stage (?cT2c vs. >cT2c; HR 3.271) were the independent predictors of BCR. Based on these two independent predictors, patients were stratified into three risk subgroups: favorable (0 risk factor; 47% of patients), intermediate (1 risk factor; 42 %), unfavorable (2 risk factors; 11%). The intermediate and unfavorable subgroups have a significantly shorter median BCR-free survival compared to the favorable subgroup (P < 0.001). Conclusion: Several factors are associated with BCR. Clinical stage (?cT2c vs. >cT2c) and biopsy GS (<8 vs. ?8) are the independent predictors of BCR. The stratification of high-risk patients into risk subgroups based on these two predictors shows that the intermediate and unfavorable subgroups have a significantly shorter median BCR-free survival compared to the favorable subgroup. The preoperative stratification model may help urologists and patients during decision-making. In non-metastatic high-risk patients, preoperative inflammatory markers (NLR, dNLR, PLR, and LDH) are not of prognostic value.

SUBMITTER: Nkengurutse G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7511762 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:ImportanceStratifying patients with biochemical recurrence (BCR) after primary treatment for prostate cancer based on the risk of prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM) is essential for determining the need for further testing and treatments.ObjectiveTo evaluate the association of BCR after radical prostatectomy or radiotherapy and its current risk stratification with PCSM.Design, setting, and participantsThis population-based cohort study included a total of 16 311 male patients with 10 364 (64%) undergoing radical prostatectomy and 5947 (36%) undergoing radiotherapy with curative intent (cT1-3, cM0) and PSA follow-up in Stockholm, Sweden, between 2003 and 2019. Follow-up for all patients was until death, emigration, or end of the study (ie, December 31, 2018). Data were analyzed between September 2022 and March 2023.Main outcomes and measuresPrimary outcomes of the study were the cumulative incidence of BCR and PCSM. Patients with BCR were stratified in low- and high-risk according to European Association of Urology (EAU) criteria.ExposuresRadical prostatectomy or radiotherapy.ResultsA total of 16 311 patients were included. Median (IQR) age was 64 (59-68) years in the radical prostatectomy cohort (10 364 patients) and 69 (64-73) years in the radiotherapy cohort (5947 patients). Median (IQR) follow-up for survivors was 88 (55-138) months and 89 (53-134) months, respectively. Following radical prostatectomy, the 15-year cumulative incidences of BCR were 16% (95% CI, 15%-18%) for the 4024 patients in the low D'Amico risk group, 30% (95% CI, 27%-32%) for the 5239 patients in the intermediate D'Amico risk group, and 46% (95% CI, 42%-51%) for 1101 patients in the high D'Amico risk group. Following radiotherapy, the 15-year cumulative incidences of BCR were 18% (95% CI, 15%-21%) for the 1230 patients in the low-risk group, 24% (95% CI, 21%-26%) for the 2355 patients in the intermediate-risk group, and 36% (95% CI, 33%-39%) for the 2362 patients in the high-risk group. The 10-year cumulative incidences of PCSM after radical prostatectomy were 4% (95% CI, 2%-6%) for the 1101 patients who developed low-risk EAU-BCR and 9% (95% CI, 5%-13%) for 649 patients who developed high-risk EAU-BCR. After radiotherapy, the 10-year PCSM cumulative incidences were 24% (95% CI, 19%-29%) for the 591 patients in the low-risk EAU-BCR category and 46% (95% CI, 40%-51%) for the 600 patients in the high-risk EAU-BCR category.Conclusions and relevanceThese findings suggest the validity of EAU-BCR stratification system. However, while the risk of dying from prostate cancer in low-risk EAU-BCR after radical prostatectomy was very low, patients who developed low-risk EAU-BCR after radiotherapy had a nonnegligible risk of prostate cancer mortality. Improving risk stratification of patients with BCR is pivotal to guide salvage treatment decisions, reduce overtreatment, and limit the number of staging tests in the event of PSA elevations after primary treatment.

Project description:Accurate estimation of recurrence risk is needed for optimal treatment of clinically localized prostate cancer (PCa) patients. We combined classical clinicopathological predictors of biochemical recurrence (BCR) and molecular markers into a new risk score for predicting BCR after radical prostatectomy (RP). A retrospective study which included 122 PCa patients who attended our department between 2000 and 2007 was conducted. Total RNA was isolated from formalin-fixed paraffin embedded PCa tissue. Gene expression patterns were analyzed in 21 selected samples from 7 localized, 6 locally advanced, and 8 metastatic PCa patients using Illumina microarrays. Expression levels of 41 genes were validated by quantitative PCR in an independent retrospective series of 101 patients with ≥ 10 years follow-up who underwent RP for clinically localized PCa. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to identify individual predictors of BCR. A risk score (RS) for predicting BCR including clinicopathological and gene expression data was developed and Kaplan-Meier curves were generated. Interaction networks between the genes of the model were built by GeneMANIA Cytoscape plugin. In a median follow-up of 120 months (range 3-190), 37 patients developed BCR (36.6%). Expression levels of 7,930 transcripts differed between clinically localized and locally advanced-metastatic PCa groups (FDR<0.1). A set of 41 genes were validated by quantitative PCR. Regression analysis showed that expression of ASF1B and MCL1 as well as Gleason score, extracapsular extension, seminal vesicle invasion and positive margins were independent prognostic factors of BCR. A RS generated using these gene expression and clinicopathological variables was able to discriminate between two groups of patients with a significantly different probability of BCR (HR 6.24; CI 3.23-12.4, p<0.01), improving the individual discriminative performance of each of these variables on their own. Direct interactions between the two genes of the model were not found. In conclusion, identification of new gene expression patterns associated with a high probability of BCR in clinically localized PCa patients treated with RP, and their combination with clinicopathological variables in a robust, easy-to-use and reliable classifier may contribute to improve PCa risk stratification and, consequently, to tailor treatment and surveillance strategies in these patients.

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Preoperative Predictors of Biochemical Recurrence-Free Survival in High-Risk Prostate Cancer Following Radical Prostatectomy

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