Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Stratification Based on Measurements of Troponin and Coronary Artery Calcium.
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ABSTRACT: Background
Low values of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin (hs-cTn) and coronary artery calcium (CAC) scores of zero are associated with a low risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD).Objectives
The purpose of this study was to evaluate baseline hs-cTnT and CAC in relation to ASCVD.Methods
Baseline hs-cTnT (limit of detection [LoD] 3 ng/l) and CAC measurements were analyzed across participants age 45 to 84 years without clinical cardiovascular disease from the prospective MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) in relationship to incident ASCVD.Results
Among 6,749 participants, 1,002 ASCVD events occurred during a median follow-up of 15 years. Participants with detectable CAC (20.1 vs. 5.0 events per 1,000 person-years; adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 2.35; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.0 to 2.76; p < 0.001) and detectable hs-cTnT (15.4 vs. 5.2 per 1,000 person-years; adjusted HR: 1.47; 95% CI: 1.21 to 1.77; p < 0.001) had higher rates of ASCVD than those with undetectable results. Individuals with undetectable hs-cTnT (32%) had similar risk for ASCVD as did those with a CAC of zero (50%) (5.2 vs. 5.0 per 1,000 person-years). Together, hs-cTnT and CAC (discordance 38%) resulted in the following ASCVD event rates: hs-cTnT < LoD/CAC = 0: 2.8 per 1,000 person-years (reference), hs-cTnT ≥ LoD/CAC = 0: 6.8 per 1,000 person-years (HR: 1.59; 95% CI: 1.17 to 2.16; p = 0.003), hs-cTnT < LoD/CAC > 0: 11.1 per 1,000 person-years (HR: 2.74; 95% CI: 1.96 to 3.83; p < 0.00001), and hs-cTnT ≥ LoD/CAC > 0: 22.6 per 1,000 person-years (HR: 3.50; 95% CI: 2.60 to 4.70; p < 0.00001).Conclusions
An undetectable hs-cTnT identifies patients with a similar, low risk for ASCVD as those with a CAC score of zero. The increased risk among those with discordant results supports their conjoined use for risk prediction.
SUBMITTER: Sandoval Y
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7513421 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:OBJECTIVES:This study assessed the utility of the pooled cohort equation (PCE) and/or coronary artery calcium (CAC) for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk assessment in smokers, especially those who were lung cancer screening eligible (LCSE). BACKGROUND:The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recommended and the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services currently pays for annual screening for lung cancer with low-dose computed tomography scans in a specified group of cigarette smokers. CAC can be obtained from these low-dose scans. The incremental utility of CAC for ASCVD risk stratification remains unclear in this high-risk group. METHODS:Of 6,814 MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) participants, 3,356 (49.2% of total cohort) were smokers (2,476 former and 880 current), and 14.3% were LCSE. Kaplan-Meier, Cox proportional hazards, area under the curve, and net reclassification improvement (NRI) analyses were used to assess the association between PCE and/or CAC and incident ASCVD. Incident ASCVD was defined as coronary death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or fatal or nonfatal stroke. RESULTS:Smokers had a mean age of 62.1 years, 43.5% were female, and all had a mean of 23.0 pack-years of smoking. The LCSE sample had a mean age of 65.3 years, 39.1% were female, and all had a mean of 56.7 pack-years of smoking. After a mean of 11.1 years of follow-up 13.4% of all smokers and 20.8% of LCSE smokers had ASCVD events; 6.7% of all smokers and 14.2% of LCSE smokers with CAC = 0 had an ASCVD event during the follow-up. One SD increase in the PCE 10-year risk was associated with a 68% increase risk for ASCVD events in all smokers (hazard ratio: 1.68; 95% confidence interval: 1.57 to 1.80) and a 22% increase in risk for ASCVD events in the LCSE smokers (hazard ratio: 1.22; 95% confidence interval: 1.00 to 1.47). CAC was associated with increased ASCVD risk in all smokers and in LCSE smokers in all the Cox models. The C-statistic of the PCE for ASCVD was higher in all smokers compared with LCSE smokers (0.693 vs. 0.545). CAC significantly improved the C-statistics of the PCE in all smokers but not in LCSE smokers. The event and nonevent net reclassification improvements for all smokers and LCSE smokers were 0.018 and -0.126 versus 0.16 and -0.196, respectively. CONCLUSIONS:In this well-characterized, multiethnic U.S. cohort, CAC was predictive of ASCVD in all smokers and in LCSE smokers but modestly improved discrimination over and beyond the PCE. However, 6.7% of all smokers and 14.2% of LCSE smokers with CAC = 0 had an ASCVD event during follow-up.
| S-EPMC6085167 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveThe effectiveness of coronary artery calcification (CAC) for risk stratification in obesity, in which imaging is often limited because of a reduced signal to noise ratio, has not been well studied.MethodsData from 9334 participants (mean age: 53.3 ± 9.7 years; 67.9% men) with BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2 from the CAC Consortium, a retrospectively assembled cohort of individuals with no prior cardiovascular diseases (CVD), were used. The predictive value of CAC for all-cause and cause-specific mortality was evaluated using multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards and competing-risks regression.ResultsMean BMI was 34.5 (SD 4.4) kg/m2 (22.7% Class II and 10.8% Class III obesity), and 5461 (58.5%) had CAC. Compared with CAC = 0, those with CAC = 1-99, 100-299, and ≥300 Agatston units had higher rates (per 1000 person-years) of all-cause (1.97 vs. 3.5 vs. 5.2 vs. 11.3), CVD (0.4 vs. 1.1 vs. 1.5 vs. 4.2), and coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality (0.2 vs. 0.6 vs. 0.6 vs. 2.5), respectively, after mean follow-up of 10.8 ± 3.0 years. After adjusting for traditional cardiovascular risk factors, CAC ≥ 300 was associated with significantly higher risk of all-cause (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.05; 95% CI: 1.49-2.82), CVD (subdistribution HR: 3.48; 95% CI: 1.81-6.70), and CHD mortality (subdistribution HR: 5.44; 95% CI: 2.02-14.66), compared with CAC = 0. When restricting the sample to individuals with BMI ≥ 35 kg/m2 , CAC ≥ 300 remained significantly associated with the highest risk.ConclusionsAmong individuals with obesity, including moderate-severe obesity, CAC strongly predicts all-cause, CVD, and CHD mortality and may serve as an effective cardiovascular risk stratification tool to prioritize the allocation of therapies for weight management.
| S-EPMC10524261 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Highlights • Women with early menopause are at greater risk for heart disease over the long-term.• Over half of middle-aged women with early menopause were free of CAC, similar to women without early menopause.• Coronary calcium scores were similar between women with and without early menopause.• Women without calcium had low risk for heart disease regardless of menopause history. Background and Aims We aimed to determine the utility of coronary artery calcium (CAC) for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk stratification in women with and without early menopause (EM). Methods To examine the association between CAC and incident ASCVD, we performed Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and multivariable Cox proportional hazards modeling using data from 2,456 postmenopausal women in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) with or without EM, defined as occurring at <45 years of age. Results The cohort was 64.1 ± 9.1 years old and 28.0% experienced EM. There were 291 ASCVD events over 12.5 ± 3.6 year follow-up with a higher event rate among those with EM compared to those without EM of 13.6 vs. 9.0 per 1,000 year follow-up (p < 0.01). Women with EM had a slightly lower prevalence of CAC = 0 (55.1%) than women without EM (59.7%) (p = 0.04) despite no difference in mean age. Among women with CAC = 0, the cumulative incidence of ASCVD at 10 years was low-to-borderline for women with (5.4%) and without EM (3.2%) (p = 0.06). However, women with EM had a significantly higher 15-year risk with an adjusted HR of 1.96 (95% CI: 1.26–3.04). In multivariable Cox models, women with CAC ≥ 1 had progressively increased ASCVD risk that did not significantly differ by EM status. Conclusion In MESA, >50% of middle-aged postmenopausal women with EM had CAC = 0, similar to those without EM. Among women with CAC = 0, those with EM had a low to borderline 10-year risk of ASCVD, but the 15-year risk was significantly higher for women with EM versus those without EM. When CAC ≥ 1, the incidence of ASCVD was similar for women with and without EM. These findings support the use of CAC to help improve ASCVD risk stratification in women with EM. Condensed abstract This study investigated the association between coronary artery calcium (CAC) and incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in postmenopausal women with and without early menopause (EM). We found that >50% of women had CAC = 0 and an associated low-to-borderline 10-year cumulative incidence of ASCVD. However, the risk for ASCVD was significantly higher for women with EM after 15-years follow-up. Additional research is needed to better understand the differences in long-term ASCVD risk between women with and without EM who have CAC = 0. Graphical abstract Image, graphical abstract
| S-EPMC9234594 | biostudies-literature
Project description:AimsCoronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring is an established tool for cardiovascular risk stratification. However, the lack of widespread availability and concerns about radiation exposure have limited the universal clinical utilization of CAC. In this study, we sought to explore whether machine learning (ML) approaches can aid cardiovascular risk stratification by predicting guideline recommended CAC score categories from clinical features and surface electrocardiograms.Methods and resultsIn this substudy of a prospective, multicentre trial, a total of 534 subjects referred for CAC scores and electrocardiographic data were split into 80% training and 20% testing sets. Two binary outcome ML logistic regression models were developed for prediction of CAC scores equal to 0 and ≥400. Both CAC = 0 and CAC ≥400 models yielded values for the area under the curve, sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of 84%, 92%, 70%, and 75%, and 87%, 91%, 75%, and 81%, respectively. We further tested the CAC ≥400 model to risk stratify a cohort of 87 subjects referred for invasive coronary angiography. Using an intermediate or higher pretest probability (≥15%) to predict CAC ≥400, the model predicted the presence of significant coronary artery stenosis (P = 0.025), the need for revascularization (P < 0.001), notably bypass surgery (P = 0.021), and major adverse cardiovascular events (P = 0.023) during a median follow-up period of 2 years.ConclusionML techniques can extract information from electrocardiographic data and clinical variables to predict CAC score categories and similarly risk-stratify patients with suspected coronary artery disease.
| S-EPMC10087019 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveThis study aims to determine the distribution of observed atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) incidence in contemporary cohorts in China, and to identify cut-off points for ASCVD risk classification based on traditional criteria and new equations developed by Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China (China-PAR).MethodsThe study populations included cohorts in the China-PAR project, with 34,757 participants eligible for the current analysis. Traditional risk stratification was assessed by using Chinese guidelines on prevention of CVD and hypertension, and 5 risk groups were classified based on these guidelines after slight modification for available risk factors. Kaplan-Meier analysis was conducted to obtain the cumulative incidence of observed ASCVD events for all subjects and sub-groups. The predicted 10-year ASCVD risk was obtained using the China-PAR equations.ResultsA total of 1922 ASCVD events were identified during an average follow-up of 14.1 years. According to the group classification based on traditional risk stratification, the observed 10-year risks for ASCVD were 4.61% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.11-5.10%) in the moderate-risk group and 8.74% (95% CI: 7.82-9.66%) in the high-risk group. Based on the China-PAR equations for risk assessment of ASCVD, those with predicted risks of <5%, 5-10%, and ≥10% could be classified into categories of low-, moderate-, and high-risk for ASCVD, respectively.ConclusionThe findings enable development of a simple method for classification of individuals into low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups, based on the China-PAR equations. The method will be useful for self-management and prevention of ASCVD in Chinese adults.
| S-EPMC5643596 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceThe interplay of self-rated health (SRH), coronary artery calcium (CAC) scores, and cardiovascular risk is poorly described.ObjectivesTo assess the degree of correlation between SRH and CAC, to determine whether these measures are complementary for risk prediction, and to assess the incremental value of the addition of SRH to established risk tools.Design, setting, and participantsThe Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) is a large population-based prospective cohort study of adults aged 45 to 84 years who were recruited from 6 US communities. A total of 6764 participants without baseline cardiovascular disease (CVD) were included in the analysis. Data were collected from July 2000 through August 2002. Follow-up was completed by December 2013, and data were analyzed from October 2018 to December 2018.ExposuresThe EVGGFP (excellent, very good, good, fair, and poor) self-assessment of overall health (assessed before the baseline study examination) and CAC score. The EVGGFP rating was categorized as poor/fair, good, very good, or excellent.Main outcomes and measuresHard coronary heart disease (CHD) events, hard CVD events, and all-cause mortality during a median follow-up of 13.2 years (interquartile range, 12.7-13.7 years).ResultsAmong the study population of 6764 participants, the mean (SD) age was 62.1 (10.2) years, and 52.9% were women. The EVGGFP rating was strongly associated with age, sex, race/ethnicity, educational and income levels, healthy diet and physical activity, and cardiovascular risk factors. Despite encapsulating many risk variables, no correlation (r = -0.007; P = .57) or association between EVGGFP and the presence (χ2 = 0.84; P = .84) or severity (χ2 = 4.64; P = .86) of CAC was found. During follow-up, 1161 deaths, 637 hard CVD events, and 405 hard CHD events were recorded. In models adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, and CAC, participants who reported excellent health had a 45% lower risk of CVD (hazard ratio [HR], 0.55; 95% CI, 0.39-0.77) and a 42% lower risk of CHD (HR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.37-0.90) compared with those who reported poor/fair health. Participants in the excellent SRH category who had any CAC had markedly elevated risk of hard CHD (HR, 6.19; 95% CI, 2.1-18.3) and CVD (HR, 6.50; 95% CI, 2.7-15.6) events compared with those with a CAC score of 0. The addition of the EVGGFP rating to CAC improved the area under the curve (C statistic) for CHD events (0.725 vs 0.734; P = .007), CVD events (0.693 vs 0.706; P < .001), and all-cause mortality (0.685 vs 0.707; P < .001). However, the addition of the EVGGFP rating to the combination of CAC and atherosclerotic CVD risk score did not significantly improve C statistics for CHD events (0.751 vs 0.753; P = .39), CVD events (0.739 vs 0.741; P = .18), or all-cause mortality (0.779 vs 0.781; P = .13).Conclusions and relevanceAlthough SRH and CAC integrate many risk variables, this study suggests that they are poorly correlated and have complementary predictive utility. A perception of excellent health does not obviate the need for definitive assessment of CVD risk, whereas fair/poor perceived health may serve as a risk enhancer, arguing for advanced risk assessment in selected clinical scenarios.
| S-EPMC6484585 | biostudies-literature
Project description:AimsComputed tomographic attenuation correction (CTAC) scans for single photon emission computed tomography myocardial perfusion imaging (SPECT-MPI) may reveal coronary artery calcification. The independent prognostic value of a visually estimated coronary artery calcium score (VECACS) from these low-dose, non-gated scans is not established.Methods & resultsVECACS was evaluated in 4,720 patients undergoing SPECT-MPI with CTAC using a 4-point scale. Major adverse cardiac events (MACE) were defined as all-cause mortality, acute coronary syndrome, or revascularization > 90 days after SPECT-MPI. Independent associations with MACE were determined with multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses adjusted for age, sex, past medical history, perfusion findings, and left ventricular ejection fraction. During a median follow up of 2.9 years (interquartile range 1.8 - 4.2), 494 (10.5%) patients experienced MACE. Compared to absent VECACS, patients with increased VECACS were more likely to experience MACE (all log-rank p < 0.001), and findings were similar when stratified by normal or abnormal perfusion. Multivariable analysis showed an increased MACE risk associated with VECACS categories of equivocal (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 2.54, 95% CI 1.45-4.45, p = 0.001), present (adjusted HR 2.44, 95% CI 1.74-3.42, p < 0.001) and extensive (adjusted HR 3.47, 95% CI 2.41-5.00, p < 0.001) compared to absent. Addition of VECACS to the multivariable model improved risk classification (continuous net reclassification index 0.207, 95% CI 0.131 - 0.310).ConclusionVECACS was an independent predictor of MACE in this large SPECT-MPI patient cohort. VECACS from CTAC can be used to improve risk stratification with SPECT-MPI without additional radiation.
| S-EPMC8233133 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe 2018 American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology/Multisociety cholesterol guideline states that statin therapy may be withheld or delayed among intermediate-risk individuals in the absence of coronary artery calcium (CAC=0). We evaluated whether traditional cardiovascular risk factors are associated with incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events among individuals with CAC=0 over long-term follow-up.MethodsWe included participants with CAC=0 at baseline from the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis), a prospective cohort study of individuals free of clinical ASCVD at baseline. We used multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models to study the association between cardiovascular risk factors (cigarette smoking, diabetes, hypertension, preventive medication use [aspirin and statin], family history of premature ASCVD, chronic kidney disease, waist circumference, lipid and inflammatory markers) and adjudicated incident ASCVD outcomes.ResultsWe studied 3416 individuals (mean [SD] age 58 [9] years; 63% were female, 33% White, 31% Black, 12% Chinese American, and 24% Hispanic). Over a median follow-up of 16 years, there were 189 ASCVD events (composite of coronary heart disease and stroke) of which 91 were coronary heart disease, 88 were stroke, and 10 were both coronary heart disease and stroke events. The unadjusted event rates of ASCVD were ≤5 per 1000 person-years among individuals with CAC=0 for most risk factors with the exception of current cigarette smoking (7.3), diabetes (8.9), hypertension (5.4), and chronic kidney disease (6.8). After multivariable adjustment, risk factors that were significantly associated with ASCVD included current cigarette smoking: hazard ratio, 2.12 (95% CI, 1.32-3.42); diabetes: hazard ratio, 1.68 (95% CI, 1.01-2.80); and hypertension: hazard ratio, 1.57 (95% CI, 1.06-2.33).ConclusionsCurrent cigarette smoking, diabetes, and hypertension are independently associated with incident ASCVD over a 16-year follow-up among those with CAC=0.
| S-EPMC8792296 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ASCVD are the leading causes of mortality and morbidity among Globe. Evaluation of patients' comprehensive and personalized risk provides risk management strategies and preventive interventions to achieve gain for patients. Framingham Risk Score (FRS) and Systemic Coronary Risk Evaluation Score (SCORE) are two well studied risk scoring models, however, can miss some (20-35%) of future cardiovascular events. To obtain more accurate risk assessment recalibrating risk models through utilizing novel risk markers have been studied in last 3 decades and both ESC and AHA recommends assessing Family History, hs-CRP, CACS, ABI, and CIMT. Subclinical Cardiovascular Disease (SCVD) has been conceptually developed for investigating gradually progressing asymptomatic development of atherosclerosis and among these novel risk markers it has been well established by literature that CACS having highest improvement in risk assessment. This review study mainly selectively discussing studies with CACS measurement. A CACS = 0 can down-stratify risk of patients otherwise treated or treatment eligible before test and can reduce unnecessary interventions and cost, whereas CACS ≥ 100 is equivalent to statin treatment threshold of ≥ 7.5% risk level otherwise statin ineligible before test. Since inflammation, insulin resistance, oxidative stress, dyslipidemia and ongoing endothelial damage due to hypertension could lead to CAC, ASCVD linked with comorbidities. Recent cohort studies have shown a CACS 100-300 as a sign of increased cancer risk. Physical activity, dietary factors, cigarette use, alcohol consumption, metabolic health, family history of CHD, aging, exposures of neighborhood environment and non-cardiovascular comorbidities can determine CACs changes.
| S-EPMC8604741 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to characterize the relationship between computed tomography angiography imaging characteristics of coronary artery and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) score.MethodsWe retrospectively identified all patients who underwent a coronary computed tomography angiography at our institution from December 2013 to July 2016, then we calculated the 10-year ASCVD score. We characterized the relationship between coronary artery imaging findings and ASCVD risk score.ResultsOne hundred fifty-one patients met our inclusion criteria. Patients with a 10-year ASCVD score of 7.5% or greater had significantly more arterial segments showing stenosis (46.4%, P = 0.008) and significantly higher maximal plaque thickness (1.25 vs 0.53, P = 0.001). However, among 56 patients with a 10-year ASCVD score of 7.5% or greater, 30 (53.6%) had no arterial stenosis. Furthermore, among the patients with a 10-year ASCVD score of less than 7.5%, 24 (25.3%) had some arterial stenosis.ConclusionsThere is some concordance but not a perfect overlap between 10-year ASCVD risk scores and coronary artery imaging findings.
| S-EPMC8117170 | biostudies-literature