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Discrete time measures versus trajectories of drinking frequency across adolescence as predictors of binge drinking in young adulthood: a longitudinal investigation.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVES:We compared discrete time measures with trajectories of adolescent drinking frequency as predictors of sustained binge drinking in young adulthood. DESIGN:Prospective longitudinal study. SETTING:10 high schools in Montréal, Canada. PARTICIPANTS:1293 high-school students followed from mean (SD) age 12 (0.6) to 24 (0.7) years. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES:Patterns of drinking frequency (self-reports every 3 months from ages 12 to 17) identified using group-based trajectory modelling. Sustained binge drinking was defined as binging monthly or more often at both ages 20 and 24. ANALYSES:Using logistic regression, sustained binge drinking was regressed on trajectory group membership and on four discrete time measures (frequency of drinking at age 12; frequency of drinking at age 17; age at drinking onset; age at onset of drinking monthly or more often). RESULTS:We identified seven drinking trajectories: late triers (15.2%), decreasers (9.5%), late escalators (10.4%), early slow escalators (16.5%), steady drinkers (14.4%), early rapid escalators (15.8%) and early frequent drinkers (18.2%). Sustained binge drinking was reported by 260 of 787 participants (33.0%) with complete data at both ages 20 and 24. Decreasers did not differ from late triers; all other patterns were associated with higher odds of sustained binge drinking (adjusted ORs: AORs=1.4-17.0). All discrete time measures were associated with sustained binge drinking, notably frequency at age 12 (a bit to try and drinking monthly: (AORs=2.6 (1.7; 3.9) and 2.8 (1.3; 6.1), respectively), age of drinking onset <13 years (AOR=7.6 (3.0; 24.1)), and any age of onset of drinking monthly or more often (AORs=5.1-8.2). CONCLUSION:Youth at risk of sustained binge drinking as young adults can be identified with indicators of early drinking as early as 7th grade (aged 12-13 years). Identification of easy-to-obtain indicators can facilitate screening and intervention efforts.

SUBMITTER: Sylvestre MP

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7513599 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Discrete time measures versus trajectories of drinking frequency across adolescence as predictors of binge drinking in young adulthood: a longitudinal investigation.

Sylvestre Marie-Pierre MP Wellman Robert J RJ Ahun Marilyn N MN Datta Geetanjali G Jutras-Aswad Didier D O Loughlin Jennifer J

BMJ open 20200923 9

<h4>Objectives</h4>We compared discrete time measures with trajectories of adolescent drinking frequency as predictors of sustained binge drinking in young adulthood.<h4>Design</h4>Prospective longitudinal study.<h4>Setting</h4>10 high schools in Montréal, Canada.<h4>Participants</h4>1293 high-school students followed from mean (SD) age 12 (0.6) to 24 (0.7) years.<h4>Primary outcome measures</h4>Patterns of drinking frequency (self-reports every 3 months from ages 12 to 17) identified using grou ...[more]

PMID: 32967870

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Project description:BackgroundHeavy episodic drinking is developmentally normative among adolescents and young adults, but is linked to adverse consequences in later life, such as drug and alcohol dependence. Genetic and peer influences are robust predictors of heavy episodic drinking in youth, but little is known about the interplay between polygenic risk and peer influences as they impact developmental patterns of heavy episodic drinking.MethodsData were from a multisite prospective study of alcohol use among adolescents and young adults with genome-wide association data (n = 412). Generalized linear mixed models were used to characterize the initial status and slopes of heavy episodic drinking between age 15 and 28. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) were derived from a separate genome-wide association study for alcohol dependence and examined for their interaction with substance use among the adolescents' closest friends in predicting the initial status and slopes of heavy episodic drinking.ResultsClose friend substance use was a robust predictor of adolescent heavy episodic drinking, even after controlling for parental knowledge and peer substance use in the school. PRS were predictive of the initial status and early patterns of heavy episodic drinking in males, but not in females. No interaction was detected between PRS and close friend substance use for heavy episodic drinking trajectories in either males or females.ConclusionsAlthough substance use among close friends and genetic influences play an important role in predicting heavy episodic drinking trajectories, particularly during the late adolescent to early adult years, we found no evidence of interaction between these influences after controlling for other social processes, such as parental knowledge and broader substance use among other peers outside of close friends. The use of longitudinal models and accounting for multiple social influences may be crucial for future studies focused on uncovering gene-environment interplay. Clinical implications are also discussed.

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Discrete time measures versus trajectories of drinking frequency across adolescence as predictors of binge drinking in young adulthood: a longitudinal investigation.

Publications

Discrete time measures versus trajectories of drinking frequency across adolescence as predictors of binge drinking in young adulthood: a longitudinal investigation.

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