The Impact of a Six?Year Climate Anomaly on the “Spanish Flu” Pandemic and WWI
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: More A
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7513628 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:The COVID-19 pandemic and the political and health measures have profoundly affected the health of our populations. However, very few studies have been published assessing its impact using a prospective cohort. The aim of this study is to describe the impact on physical and mental health due to the COVID-19 pandemic in the general population in Spain, and according to COVID-19 clinical status, during the first year of the pandemic. A longitudinal cohort study with two online surveys were performed on a representative sample of the adult Spanish population before (N = 2005, October/November 2019) and during the pandemic (N = 1357, November/December 2020). We assessed disability using the World Health Organisation Disability Assessment Schedule (WHODAS), major depressive episode (MDE) and suicidal thoughts and behaviours (STB), using an adapted version of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI 3.0); generalised anxiety disorder (GAD) using the GAD-7 scale; post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms using the PTSD checklist for DSM-5 (PCL-5). For physical health, there was a statistically significant loss of weight (mean/SD) (T0, 73.22/15.56 vs. T1, 71.21/11.94), less use of tobacco (T0, 11.4% vs. T1, 9.0%) and decreased disability (mean/SD) (T0, 21.52/9.22 vs. T1, 19.03/7.32). For mental health, there was a significant increase in MDE (T0, 6.5% vs. T1, 8.8%) and in the prevalence of GAD (T0, 13.7% vs. T1, 17.7%). The prevalence of STB (T0, 15.1% vs. T1, 7.1%) significantly decreased. Individuals who declared they had been diagnosed with COVID-19 (3.6%) showed a worsening in physical health and an increase in mental health problems and PTSD symptoms. Although suicide risk during the first year of the pandemic was significantly less, many suicide risk factors increased: such as the incidence and persistence of MDE and GAD, the presence of PTSD symptoms in those diagnosed with COVID-19, and a worsening in self-assessed health status. We expect an increase in STB in the population in the long-term. Future research should gather information about the long-term impact of the pandemic.
| S-EPMC10026238 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Recent studies argue that major crises can have long-lasting effects on individual behavior. While most studies focused on natural disasters, we explore the consequences of the global pandemic caused by a lethal influenza virus in 1918-19: the so-called "Spanish Flu." This was by far the worst pandemic of modern history, causing up to 100 million deaths worldwide. Using information about attitudes of respondents to the General Social Survey, we find evidence that experiencing the pandemic likely had permanent consequences in terms of individuals' social trust. Our findings suggest that lower social trust was passed on to the descendants of the survivors of the Spanish Flu who migrated to the United States. As trust is a crucial factor for long-term economic development, our research offers a new angle from which to assess current health threats.
| S-EPMC7986373 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Which are the effects of pandemics on the returns to factors of production? Are these effects persistent over time? These questions have received renewed interest after the out-burst of deaths caused by Covid-19. The Spanish Flu is the closest pandemic to Covid-19. In this paper, we analyze the impact of the Spanish Flu on the returns to labor and capital in Spain. Spain is an ideal country to perform this exercise. First, the "excess death rate" was one of the largest in Western Europe and it varied substantially across regions. Second, Spain was transitioning towards industrialization, with regions in different stages of development. Third, Spain was developed enough to have reliable data. We identify the effect of the Spanish Flu by exploiting within-country variation in "excess death rate". Our main result is that the effect of the Spanish Flu on daily real wages was large, negative, and broadly short-lived. The effects are heterogeneous across occupations and regions. The negative effects are exacerbated in (i) occupations producing non-essential goods like shoemakers and (ii) more urbanized provinces. Quantitatively, relative to pre-1918, the decline for the average region ranges from null to around 30 percent. In addition, we fail to find significant negative effects of the flu on returns to capital. Whereas the results for dividends are imprecisely estimated (we cannot reject a null effect), the effect on real estate prices (houses and land), driven by the post-1918 recovery, is positive. Experts on inequality have argued that pandemics have equalizing effects especially in a Malthusian setting, due to real wage increases. Our findings suggest that, at least, for a developing economy like Spain in the early 20th century, this result does not apply. Indeed, we document that the flu pandemic was conducive to a (short-run) reduction in real wages. In addition, we interpret our heterogeneous results as suggestive evidence that pandemics represent a demand shock.
| S-EPMC9758399 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Published analyses of the sequences of three genes from the 1918 Spanish influenza virus have cast doubt on the theory that it came from birds immediately before the pandemic. They showed that the virus was of the H1N1 subtype lineage but more closely related to mammal-infecting strains than any known bird-infecting strain. They provided no evidence that the virus originated by gene reassortment nor that the virus was the direct ancestor of the two lineages of H1N1 viruses currently found in mammals; one that mostly infects human beings, the other pigs. The unusual virulence of the virus and why it produced a pandemic have remained unsolved. We have reanalysed the sequences of the three 1918 genes and found conflicting patterns of relatedness in all three. Various tests showed that the patterns in its haemagglutinin (HA) gene were produced by true recombination between two different parental HA H1 subtype genes, but that the conflicting patterns in its neuraminidase and non-structural-nuclear export proteins genes resulted from selection. The recombination event that produced the 1918 HA gene probably coincided with the start of the pandemic, and may have triggered it.
| S-EPMC1088560 | biostudies-other
Project description:BackgroundSeasonal flu epidemics in the European region cause high numbers of cases and deaths. Flu-associated mortality has been estimated but morbidity studies are necessary to understand the burden of disease in the population. Our objective was to estimate the excess hospital admissions in Spain of diseases associated with influenza during four epidemic influenza periods (2000-2004).MethodsHospital discharge registers containing pneumonia, chronic bronchitis, heart failure and flu from all public hospitals in Spain were reviewed for the years 2000 to 2004. Epidemic periods were defined by data from the Sentinel Surveillance System. Excess hospitalisations were calculated as the difference between the average number of weekly hospitalisations/100,000 in epidemic and non-epidemic periods. Flu epidemics were defined for seasons 2001/2002, 2002/2003, 2003/2004.ResultsA(H3N2) was the dominant circulating serotype in 2001/2002 and 2003/2004. Negligible excess hospitalisations were observed during the 2002/2003 epidemic where A(H1N1) was circulating. During 2000/2001, flu activity remained below threshold levels and therefore no epidemic period was defined. In two epidemic periods studied a delay between the peak of the influenza epidemic and the peak of hospitalisations was observed. During flu epidemics with A(H3N2), excess hospitalisations were higher in men and in persons <5 and >64 years higher than 10 per 100,000. Pneumonia accounted for 70% of all flu associated hospitalisations followed by chronic bronchitis. No excess flu-specific hospitalisations were recorded during all seasons.ConclusionFlu epidemics have an impact on hospital morbidity in Spain. Further studies that include other variables, such as temperature and humidity, are necessary and will deepen our understanding of the role of each factor during flu epidemics and their relation with morbidity.
| S-EPMC1964764 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The 1918 influenza A virus caused the most devastating pandemic, killing approximately 50 million people worldwide. Immunization with 1918-like and classical swine H1N1 virus vaccines results in cross-protective antibodies against the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza, indicating antigenic similarities among these viruses. In this study, we demonstrate that vaccination with the 2009 pandemic H1N1 vaccine elicits 1918 virus cross-protective antibodies in mice and humans, and that vaccination or passive transfer of human-positive sera reduced morbidity and conferred full protection from lethal challenge with the 1918 virus in mice. The spread of the 2009 H1N1 influenza virus in the population worldwide, in addition to the large number of individuals already vaccinated, suggests that a large proportion of the population now have cross-protective antibodies against the 1918 virus, greatly alleviating concerns and fears regarding the accidental exposure/release of the 1918 virus from the laboratory and the use of the virus as a bioterrorist agent.
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Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC1283216 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The responses of tropical forests to environmental change are critical uncertainties in predicting the future impacts of climate change. The positive phase of the 2015-2016 El Niño Southern Oscillation resulted in unprecedented heat and low precipitation in the tropics with substantial impacts on the global carbon cycle. The role of African tropical forests is uncertain as their responses to short-term drought and temperature anomalies have yet to be determined using on-the-ground measurements. African tropical forests may be particularly sensitive because they exist in relatively dry conditions compared with Amazonian or Asian forests, or they may be more resistant because of an abundance of drought-adapted species. Here, we report responses of structurally intact old-growth lowland tropical forests inventoried within the African Tropical Rainforest Observatory Network (AfriTRON). We use 100 long-term inventory plots from six countries each measured at least twice prior to and once following the 2015-2016 El Niño event. These plots experienced the highest temperatures and driest conditions on record. The record temperature did not significantly reduce carbon gains from tree growth or significantly increase carbon losses from tree mortality, but the record drought did significantly decrease net carbon uptake. Overall, the long-term biomass increase of these forests was reduced due to the El Niño event, but these plots remained a live biomass carbon sink (0.51 ± 0.40 Mg C ha-1 y-1) despite extreme environmental conditions. Our analyses, while limited to African tropical forests, suggest they may be more resistant to climatic extremes than Amazonian and Asian forests.
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Project description:This study aimed to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the training of Spanish pathology residents by conducting an online survey. It was distributed among the pathologists who had been residents during the pandemic and consisted of 31 questions about the demographics and the impact of the pandemic on their pathology training. In total, 114 residents completed the survey; they reported a decrease in the number of biopsies, cytology samples, autopsies, research activities, sessions, case corrections, and courses, as well as the detrimental effect this had on their training. Half of the residents had to cancel rotations and 32% were redeployed to other departments. The COVID-19 pandemic has affected pathology training, and our results can be used to understand the challenges residents have faced and mitigate their impact.
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Project description:Understanding the influence of changes in solar activity on Earth's climate and distinguishing it from other forcings, such as volcanic activity, remains a major challenge for palaeoclimatology. This problem is best approached by investigating how these variables influenced past climate conditions as recorded in high precision paleoclimate archives. In particular, determining if the climate system response to these forcings changes through time is critical. Here we use the Wiener-Granger causality approach along with well-established cross-correlation analysis to investigate the causal relationship between solar activity, volcanic forcing, and climate as reflected in well-established Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) rainfall proxy records from Yok Balum Cave, southern Belize. Our analysis reveals a consistent influence of volcanic activity on regional Central American climate over the last two millennia. However, the coupling between solar variability and local climate varied with time, with a regime shift around 1000-1300 CE after which the solar-climate coupling weakened considerably.
| S-EPMC5594009 | biostudies-literature