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Impact of low-dose CT screening for lung cancer on ethnic health inequities in New Zealand: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE:There are large inequities in the lung cancer burden for the Indigenous M?ori population of New Zealand. We model the potential lifetime health gains, equity impacts and cost-effectiveness of a national low-dose CT (LDCT) screening programme for lung cancer in smokers aged 55-74?years with a 30 pack-year history, and for formers smokers who have quit within the last 15 years. DESIGN:A Markov macrosimulation model estimated: health benefits (health-adjusted life-years (HALYs)), costs and cost-effectiveness of biennial LDCT screening. Input parameters came from literature and NZ-linked health datasets. SETTING:New Zealand. PARTICIPANTS:Population aged 55-74 years in 2011. INTERVENTIONS:Biennial LDCT screening for lung cancer compared with usual care. OUTCOME MEASURES:Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated using the average difference in costs and HALYs between the screened and the unscreened populations. Equity analyses included substituting non-M?ori values for M?ori values of background morbidity, mortality and stage-specific survival. Changes in inequities in lung cancer survival and 'health-adjusted life expectancy' (HALE) were measured. RESULTS:LDCT screening in NZ is likely to be cost-effective for the total population: NZ$34?400 per HALY gained (95% uncertainty interval NZ$27?500 to NZ$42?900) and for M?ori separately (using a threshold of gross domestic product per capita NZ$45?000). Health gains per capita for M?ori females were twice that for non-M?ori females and 25% greater for M?ori males compared with non-M?ori males. LDCT screening will narrow absolute inequities in HALE and lung cancer mortality for M?ori, but will slightly increase relative inequities in mortality from lung cancer (compared with non-M?ori) due to differential stage-specific survival. CONCLUSION:A national biennial LDCT lung cancer screening programme in New Zealand is likely to be cost-effective, will improve total population health and reduce health inequities for M?ori. Attention must be paid to addressing ethnic inequities in stage-specific lung cancer survival.

SUBMITTER: McLeod M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7517554 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Impact of low-dose CT screening for lung cancer on ethnic health inequities in New Zealand: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

McLeod Melissa M Sandiford Peter P Kvizhinadze Giorgi G Bartholomew Karen K Crengle Sue S

BMJ open 20200924 9

<h4>Objective</h4>There are large inequities in the lung cancer burden for the Indigenous Māori population of New Zealand. We model the potential lifetime health gains, equity impacts and cost-effectiveness of a national low-dose CT (LDCT) screening programme for lung cancer in smokers aged 55-74 years with a 30 pack-year history, and for formers smokers who have quit within the last 15 years.<h4>Design</h4>A Markov macrosimulation model estimated: health benefits (health-adjusted life-years (HA ...[more]

PMID: 32973060

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Project description:BackgroundRandomized controlled trials have evaluated the efficacy of low-dose CT (LDCT) lung cancer screening on lung cancer (LC) outcomes.ObjectiveMeta-analyze LDCT lung cancer screening trials.MethodsWe identified studies by searching PubMed, Google Scholar, the Cochrane Registry, ClinicalTrials.gov , and reference lists from retrieved publications. We abstracted data on study design features, stage I LC diagnoses, LC and overall mortality, false positive results, harm from invasive diagnostic procedures, overdiagnosis, and significant incidental findings. We assessed study quality using the Cochrane risk-of-bias tool. We used random-effects models to calculate relative risks and assessed effect modulators with subgroup analyses and meta-regression.ResultsWe identified 9 studies that enrolled 96,559 subjects. The risk of bias across studies was judged to be low. Overall, LDCT screening significantly increased the detection of stage I LC, RR = 2.93 (95% CI, 2.16-3.98), I2 = 19%, and reduced LC mortality, RR = 0.84 (95% CI, 0.75-0.93), I2 = 0%. The number needed to screen to prevent an LC death was 265. Women had a lower risk of LC death (RR = 0.69, 95% CI, 0.40-1.21) than men (RR = 0.86, 95% CI, 0.66-1.13), p value for interaction = 0.11. LDCT screening did not reduce overall mortality, RR = 0.96 (95% CI, 0.91-1.01), I2 = 0%. The pooled false positive rate was 8% (95% CI, 4-18); subjects with false positive results had < 1 in 1000 risk of major complications following invasive diagnostic procedures. The most valid estimates for overdiagnosis and significant incidental findings were 8.9% and 7.5%, respectively.DiscussionLDCT screening significantly reduced LC mortality, though not overall mortality, with women appearing to benefit more than men. The estimated risks for false positive results, screening complications, overdiagnosis, and incidental findings were low. Long-term survival data were available only for North American and European studies limiting generalizability.

Project description:ImportanceChina, which has one-third of the worldwide smoking population, has a substantial cancer burden, with lung cancer being the leading cause of cancer-related death. The effectiveness of lung cancer screening for mortality reduction has been confirmed, but the cost-effectiveness of diverse screening modalities remains unclear.ObjectiveTo compare the cost-effectiveness of low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) with a biomarker (micro-RNA signature classifier [MSC]) with that of LDCT alone by screening interval and cumulative smoking exposure.Design, setting, and participantsIn this economic evaluation, a comparative cost-effectiveness analysis used Markov state transition models that simulated the 1947 to 1971 China birth cohort. Simulated individuals in 8 cohorts of 10 000 entered the study between ages 50 and 74 years and were followed up until death or age 79 years, corresponding to a study period from January 1, 2021, to December 31, 2050. The model was run with a cycle length of 1 year. All the transition probabilities were validated, and health utility values were extracted from published literature. Cost parameters were derived from the databases of local medical insurance bureaus.Main outcomes and measuresPrimary outcomes included life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) with future costs and outcomes discounted by 5%. Screening strategies with a mean ICER less than Chinese yuan (CNY) 212 676 per QALY gained were deemed to be cost-effective. The cost-effectiveness of 7 alternative screening strategies with a screening starting age of 50 years, minimum cumulative smoking exposure of 20 vs 30 pack-years, and screening interval of annual vs 1 time was estimated, including the 2021 China guideline-recommended strategy (LDCT, annual, 30 pack-years) and the 2018 China guideline-recommended strategy (LDCT, annual, 20 pack-years).ResultsIn a simulated population of 80 000 individuals, the conjunctive LDCT and MSC screening strategy was estimated to obtain an ICER of CNY -793 995.17 to 254 417.46 (minimum cumulative smoking exposure, 20-30 pack-years) per QALY gained compared with LDCT screening alone. China's 2021 guideline-recommended strategy was not cost-effective compared with the 2018 guideline-recommended strategy, with higher costs and fewer QALYs gained; the QALY loss ranged from 0.02 to 0.15 per person and the increase in cost ranged from CNY 945.89 to CNY 5131.29 per person. LDCT and MSC screening beginning at age 70 to 74 years in individuals with a 20 pack-year smoking history was the most cost-effective strategy, with an ICER of CNY -793 995.17 per QALY gained. Lowering the minimum cumulative smoking exposure for screening from 30 to 20 pack-years and maintaining annual screening were associated with greater cost savings regardless of the screening tool.Conclusions and relevanceThis economic evaluation found that China's 2018 recommendation for lung cancer screening was more cost-effective than the 2021 recommendation. Moreover, the cost-effectiveness of lung cancer screening was improved when MSC was included with LDCT. These findings may be useful for the modification of guidelines for lung cancer screening.

Project description:BACKGROUND:In the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST), screening with low-dose computed tomography (CT) resulted in a 20% reduction in lung-cancer mortality among participants between the ages of 55 and 74 years with a minimum of 30 pack-years of smoking and no more than 15 years since quitting. It is not known whether the benefits and potential harms of such screening vary according to lung-cancer risk. METHODS:We assessed the variation in efficacy, the number of false positive results, and the number of lung-cancer deaths prevented among 26,604 participants in the NLST who underwent low-dose CT screening, as compared with the 26,554 participants who underwent chest radiography, according to the quintile of 5-year risk of lung-cancer death (ranging from 0.15 to 0.55% in the lowest-risk group [quintile 1] to more than 2.00% in the highest-risk group [quintile 5]). RESULTS:The number of lung-cancer deaths per 10,000 person-years that were prevented in the CT-screening group, as compared with the radiography group, increased according to risk quintile (0.2 in quintile 1, 3.5 in quintile 2, 5.1 in quintile 3, 11.0 in quintile 4, and 12.0 in quintile 5; P=0.01 for trend). Across risk quintiles, there were significant decreasing trends in the number of participants with false positive results per screening-prevented lung-cancer death (1648 in quintile 1, 181 in quintile 2, 147 in quintile 3, 64 in quintile 4, and 65 in quintile 5). The 60% of participants at highest risk for lung-cancer death (quintiles 3 through 5) accounted for 88% of the screening-prevented lung-cancer deaths and for 64% of participants with false positive results. The 20% of participants at lowest risk (quintile 1) accounted for only 1% of prevented lung-cancer deaths. CONCLUSIONS:Screening with low-dose CT prevented the greatest number of deaths from lung cancer among participants who were at highest risk and prevented very few deaths among those at lowest risk. These findings provide empirical support for risk-based targeting of smokers for such screening. (Funded by the National Cancer Institute.).

Project description:BackgroundLung cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer and the leading cause of cancer-related death in China. The effectiveness of screening for lung cancer has been reported to reduce lung cancer-specific and overall mortality, although the cost-effectiveness, optimal start age, and screening interval remain unclear.ObjectiveThis study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of lung cancer screening among heavy smokers in China by incorporating start age and screening interval.MethodsA Markov state-transition model was used to assess the cost-effectiveness of a lung cancer screening program in China. The evaluated screening strategies were based on a screening start age of 50-74 years and a screening interval of once or annually. Transition probabilities were obtained from the literature and validated, while cost parameters were derived from databases of local medical insurance bureaus. A societal perspective was adopted. The outputs of the model included costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and lung cancer-specific mortality, with future costs and outcomes discounted by 5%. A currency exchange rate of 1 CNY=0.1557 USD is applicable. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated for different screening strategies relative to nonscreening.ResultsThe proposed model suggested that screening led to a gain of 0.001-0.042 QALYs per person as compared with the findings in the nonscreening cohort. Meanwhile, one-time and annual screenings were associated with reductions in lung cancer-related mortality of 0.004%-1.171% and 6.189%-15.819%, respectively. The ICER ranged from 119,974.08 to 614,167.75 CNY per QALY gained relative to nonscreening. Using the World Health Organization threshold of 212,676 CNY per QALY gained, annual screening from a start age of 55 years and one-time screening from the age of 65 years can be considered as cost-effective in China. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted.ConclusionsThis economic evaluation revealed that a population-based lung cancer screening program in China for heavy smokers using low-dose computed tomography was cost-effective for annual screening of smokers aged 55-74 years and one-time screening of those aged 65-74 years. Moreover, annual lung cancer screening should be promoted in China to realize the benefits of a guideline-recommended screening program.

Project description:BackgroundRelatively little is known about various aspects of low-dose CT (LDCT) scan lung cancer screening in US clinical practice, including characteristics of cases diagnosed after screening. We assessed this using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare database.Research questionWhat were the characteristics of patients with lung cancer, including stage and survival, whose disease was diagnosed after LDCT scan screenings?Study design and methodsWe created an LDCT scan use cohort consisting of everyone in the 5% SEER-Medicare sample with ≥ 12 months of non-health maintenance organization (HMO) Part A and B coverage while 65 to 77 years of age from 2015 through 2019. LDCT scan use and lung cancer diagnosis rates were assessed in this cohort. Additionally, we created a lung cancer cohort consisting of patients who received a diagnosis between 2015 and 2017 at 65 to 78 years of age with complete (non-HMO Part A and B) coverage the year before diagnosis. The cases cohort comprised those screened or unscreened based on undergoing screening during that period; lung cancer characteristics and survival were compared between these groups.ResultsIn the LDCT scan use cohort (n = 414,358), use rates increased from 0.10 (per 100 person-years) in 2015 to 1.3 in 2019. Among those with first screenings, 39.2% underwent a subsequent screen within 18 months. The 1-year cumulative lung cancer diagnosis rate after initial screenings was 2.4%. Claims for prescreen counseling were infrequent (about 10%). Of 48,891 patients in the lung cancer cohort, 1,150 (2.4%) underwent screening. Among screened patients, 52.3%, 11.0%, 20.7%, and 16.0% received diagnoses of stages I, II, III, and IV disease, respectively. Lung cancer-specific survival through 3 years was significantly greater in screened versus unscreened patients overall and for all stages except stage II; 3-year lung cancer-specific survival was 89.0% in screened patients with stage I disease.InterpretationLDCT scan use was low but increased over time. The lung cancer yield was substantial; cases among those who underwent screening primarily were in the early stage with high survival rates. Although screening rates were unacceptably low, screening outcomes in those Medicare recipients undergoing screening were favorable.

Dataset Information

Impact of low-dose CT screening for lung cancer on ethnic health inequities in New Zealand: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

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Impact of low-dose CT screening for lung cancer on ethnic health inequities in New Zealand: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

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